The MLB season is rolling, and there’s a great DFS slate on tap for Tuesday, 5/14/19. Below is a list of our best pitchers, hitters, and stacks to target (Three Up) and fade (Three Down) in MLB DFS contests during the afternoon.
Please note the advice below is relevant for daily fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, and lots of other factors. This is important to consider when constructing a roster. Remember that more than in other sports, variance is a huge part of baseball. Even Mike Trout can go 0-for-4 on a given night, and Max Scherzer can get lit up by a weak team.
Weather can also play a huge role in MLB DFS on a nightly basis, and lineups are constantly shifting. So always, always check the starting lineups and weather reports when playing for an MLB slate. If a game gets rained out, your player gets zero points!
BEST MLB DFS TOURNAMENTS FOR 5/14/19
Hidden Ball Trick: $11 entry, $200k guaranteed (DraftKings) – $50,000 to 1st!
Four Seamer: $4 entry, $40k guaranteed (DraftKings)
Rally: $9.99 entry, $115k guaranteed (FanDuel) – $20,000 to 1st!
Squeeze: $5.55 entry, $100k guaranteed (FanDuel)
Three Up for May 14, 2019
Chris Sale vs. COL ($10.8k DraftKings, $11.4k FanDuel)
The Rockies remain dangerous against lefties, but they have also posted the most strikeouts (144) against LHPs this year. That stat alone is enough reason to keep rolling with Chris Sale. He is getting overlooked because he was hit so hard in his first four starts this season. Since then, Sale is sporting an elite 42.7% K-Rate with a 14.5% swinging strike rate and .172 BAA over his last four outings.
Sale’s cut fastball rated 8.02 runs above average and helped him post an absurd 65% Z-Contact Rate in his last start at Baltimore. He’s been unlucky to record only one win during that stretch. But he should receive run support today with struggling southpaw Kyle Freeland going for the Rockies. Sale posted a 1.88 FIP at Fenway Park last year and is allowing only a 14.6% line drive rate at home this year. That makes his .350 BABIP an outlier in the small sample size of three home starts.
Charlie Morton at MIA ($10.5k DraftKings, $9.8k FanDuel)
Sale might be an elite GPP play, but Charlie Morton is even more appealing in Cash games tonight. The veteran RHP has been just as effective with the Rays after his stellar campaign with the Astros last year. Morton’s swinging strike rate (12.3%) is up, and his FIP (2.86) has dropped considerably despite a rise in walks lately. Tonight he’ll face a Marlins team that owns the lowest collective wOBA (.263) and second-lowest BB Rate (7.1%) in the Majors at home. Morton has been lights out on the road with a 1.61 ERA and .177 BAA over four starts this year. He shouldn’t have much trouble with Miami’s struggling lineup and is a bargain on FanDuel.
Other pitchers to consider: Chris Paddack, Jerad Eickhoff, Jack Flaherty, Luke Weaver, Kyle Gibson
Paul DeJong at ATL ($5.0k DraftKings, $4.2k FanDuel)
Mike Foltynewicz might eventually start to look like an ace again, but he’s unlikely to right the ship in a tough matchup tonight against the slugging Cardinals. Paul DeJong has been a huge part of the Cards’ offensive surge with a .321/.408/.564 slash line this year. He owns an impressive 29.4% line drive rate and 48.6% hard contact rate in RvR matchups. Righties are 9-for-29 (.346) with 2 HR against Foltynewicz at Turner Field this year. Foltynewicz posted a 1.12 GB/FB ratio last year and is now rocking a 0.60 GB/FB ratio with an unsightly 6.89 FIP. His slider went from a rating of 22.9 runs above average to -1.9. And DeJong crushes both sliders and cutters.
Matt Chapman at SEA ($4.5k DraftKings, $3.9k FanDuel)
Mariners starter Mike Leake has been pummeled in RvR matchups this year with a .341 BAA and 46.2% hard contact rate. Matt Chapman is 6-for-16 with 2 HR in his career against Leake and is certainly a candidate to go yard again considering Leake’s posting a career-high 18.3% HR/FB ratio through eight outings this season. Leake has walked only one RHB over 90 plate appearances this year, but that aggressive approach has led to trouble. His sub-90 MPH fastball rates 9.2 runs below average. Chapman rates 11.5 runs above average when facing heaters this year.
Other hitters to consider: George Springer, Whit Merrifield, Andrew Benintendi, Hunter Pence, Hunter Dozier, Christian Walker, Jeff McNeil, Matt Olson, Jorge Soler, Nick Castellanos, Khris Davis, J.T. Realmuto, Aledmys Diaz, Matt Carpenter, Niko Goodrum
Astros vs. LHP Ryan Carpenter (Tigers)
The Astros eat up mediocre lefties, and Tigers prospect Ryan Carpenter has been well below average in his limited chances in the Majors. Carpenter owns a 7.90 ERA and 7.38 FIP with a notable 29.4% HR/FB ratio over seven MLB appearances since 2018. He’s hardly been more impressive at the AAA level with a 4.75 ERA and .278 BAA over his last 20 outings.
Carpenter allowed a 66.7% hard contact rate in LvL matchups last year and is giving up a 35.6% line drive rate to lefties this year. Thus, Michael Brantley is certainly in play in this stack against an elite LHB. The best options are quite expensive in George Springer, Alex Bregman, and Carlos Correa. But the Astros are dominating with a league-leading .373 wOBA against lefties, and those RHBs are leading the way. Since Jose Altuve (hamstring) is on the IL, the Astros can provide salary relief with Aledmys Diaz likely starting at second. Yuli Gurriel, Tyler White, and Jake Marisnick could all be worth consideration depending on their placement in the lineup.
Other stacks to consider: Royals vs. Shelby Miller (Diamondbacks), Athletics vs. Mike Leake (Mariners)
Three Down for May 14, 2019
Pitcher To Fade
Clayton Kershaw vs. SD ($10.2k DraftKings, $10.2k FanDuel)
By now it’s no secret Clayton Kershaw is starting to fade in his 11th MLB campaign. He’s dealt with back issues recently and is still pitching well but has been far from dominant with an 88.6% Z-Contact Rate and 3.76 FIP this season. Kershaw is giving up a 21.7% HR/FB ratio to RHBs and a career-high 42.7% hard contact rate overall. He may not get much run support tonight with rising ace Chris Paddack throwing for the Padres. Plus the San Diego offense is no longer the laughing stock of the NL. They actually own the third-highest collective ISO mark (.218) and lead the Majors with a 44.8% hard contact rate when facing LHPs this season. With Manny Machado in the fold, Wil Myers crushing lefties, and Franmil Reyes threatening to hit any weak offerings out of the park, the Padres are a tough opponent for Kershaw.
Hitter To Fade
Mookie Betts vs. COL ($5.5k DraftKings, $4.4k FanDuel)
During his 2018 MVP campaign, Mookie Betts crushed righties and lefties alike. Yet this year, he’s just 7-for-40 (.175) with one XBH to post a measly .450 OPS against LHPs. Rockies southpaw Kyle Freeland has struggled at times this year but has generally been good against the platoon with a .186 BAA and 1.03 WHIP on the road against RHBs. He’s yielding only a 17.9% line drive rate and 11.6% HR/FB ratio in his career against righties. And he has been a bit unlucky this year with a 60.7% strand rate. Freeland could disappoint those who play either Betts or J.D. Martinez in the hopes that a stack of Red Sox stars pays off at Fenway.
Stack To Fade
Blue Jays at SF (RHP Tyler Beede)
While Tyler Beede has been rocked for 9 ER and 2 HR over his first two starts this year, his talent should not be overlooked. The former No. 14 overall pick is posting a 14.1% swinging strike rate and averages 95.6 MPH on his live fastball. Beede’s been unable to locate his breaking pitches in short outings at Cincy and Colorado, resulting in a high walk rate and a lofty 28.6% HR/FB ratio. Yet now he’ll make his season debut at AT&T Park, the stadium with the lowest HR Factor in the Majors. The Blue Jays have hit only 18 homers in road games (second-fewest in AL) and lack many dangerous LHBs that would be appealing to stack against the Giants’ young righty. Now, Nick Vincent is expected to serve as the “opener” with Beede likely to mix in as a long reliever. It’s a situation to avoid in a pitcher-friendly ballpark.