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Moncada

We have a six-game MLB DFS slate on Monday, 5/13/19 beginning at 7:05 p.m. EDT. Below is a list of our best pitchers, hitters, and stacks to target (Three Up) and fade (Three Down) in MLB DFS contests. Note that some of these plays are recommended for Cash, and some are best reserved for GPP lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Please note the advice below is relevant for daily fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, and lots of other factors. This is important to consider when constructing a roster. Remember that more than in other sports, variance is a huge part of baseball. Even Mike Trout can go 0-for-4 on a given night, and Max Scherzer can get lit up by a weak team.

Weather can also play a huge role in MLB DFS on a nightly basis, and lineups are constantly shifting. So always, always check the starting lineups and weather reports when playing for an MLB slate. If a game gets rained out, your player gets zero points!

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BEST MLB DFS TOURNAMENTS FOR 5/13

Starting Nine: $9 entry, $200k guaranteed (DraftKings) – $50k to 1st!
Medium 8s: $88 entry, $200k guaranteed (DraftKings)- $50K to 1st!
Mon. Rally: $9.99 entry, $125k guaranteed (FanDuel) – $25K to 1st!
Mon. Grand Slam: $55 entry, $100K guaranteed (FanDuel)- $20K to 1st!

Three Up for May 13, 2019

Best Pitcher

Robbie Ray vs. PIT ($10k DraftKings, $8.8k FanDuel)

Ray owns an impressive .184 BAA through a modest sample at home this season, along with a .244 wOBA. The Pirates come in as one of the most punchless offenses against left-handers on the road. Pittsburgh owns a .257 wOBA, -12.4 wRAA and NL-high 31.0 percent strikeout rate versus southpaws outside of PNC Park.

Ray is sporting a 12.5 percent swinging strike rate thus far this season. He’s also allowed three earned runs or less in four consecutive starts, and in seven of eight trips to the mound overall this season. He’s struck out seven or more in three consecutive outings as well, giving him plenty of GPP upside against a mediocre offense that has precious few hitters with a good track record against southpaws.

Finally, it’s also worth noting that Chase Field has consistently suppressed offense this season. The stadium checks in with the sixth-lowest run factor (0.804), along with the 11th-lowest home-run factor (0.902).

Other pitchers to consider: Jose Berrios (vs. DET), Matthew Boyd (vs. HOU), Brad Peacock (at DET), Yusei Kikuchi (vs. OAK)

Best Hitter

Yoan Moncada vs. CLE ($4.9k DraftKings, $3.8k FanDuel)

The switch-hitting Moncada has been impressive from both sides of the plate this season. However, he’s been especially proficient against right-handers. Moncada boasts a .300 average, all seven of his homers, a 39.4 percent hard-contact rate and a .400 wOBA against righties. What’s more, he’s given Indians starter Shane Bieber a fair share of trouble in past encounters. Moncada owns a .500 average over seven career plate appearances versus the right-hander.

Bieber has allowed a .327 wOBA to left-handed hitters overall, along with a 5.08 xFIP and 40.0 percent hard-contact rate. He’s seen a downturn in several metrics when facing lefty bats, including K/9 (7.71), BB/9 (4.41) and WHIP (1.47). And, it’s worth noting Moncada’s success against two of Bieber’s most frequently thrown pitches. While Bieber is allowing a .322 wOBA on his four-seam fastball and a .486 wOBA on his curve, Moncada owns .385 and .377 wOBAs against those respective pitches.

Other hitters to consider: Yasmani Grandal (at PHI), Christian Yelich (at PHI), Eric Thames (at PHI), Rhys Hoskins (vs. MIL), Bryce Harper (vs. MIL), Andrew McCutchen (vs. MIL), Carlos Santana (at CWS), Leonys Martin (at CWS), Jose Ramirez (at CWS)

Best Stack

Twins vs. LAA (LHP Tyler Skaggs) 

The Twins are one of the surprises of the 2019 season thus far. Some of their biggest success has come against left-handed pitching in their home stadium of Target Field. Minnesota checked into Sunday’s action with a majors-high .316 average and AL-best .406 wOBA versus lefties at home. They also own a .295 ISO on the strength of 14 extra-base hits and have struck out at a modest 15.7 percent clip against that handedness.

Skaggs sports a .311 BAA, .381 wOBA and 6.38 ERA across 18.1 road frames this season. All four homers the southpaw has allowed have come on the road as well, where he also sports a mediocre 65.6 percent strand rate. Skaggs has also yielded a 27.1 percent line-drive rate and 41.7 percent hard-contact rate outside of Angel Stadium. Seven of the projected starting nine for Minnesota own a .403 wOBA or higher versus left-handed pitching at home, and six have a wOBA of .360 or greater against lefties overall on the season.

Nelson Cruz, Mitch Garver, C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop and Byron Buxton all particularly stand out as options based on their track record against southpaws in GPPs on Monday.

Other stacks to consider: Phillies (vs. MIL), Indians (at CWS)

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Three Down for May 13, 2019

Pitcher To Fade

Nick Kingham at ARI ($6.5k DraftKings, $5.6k FanDuel)   

Kingham has had a rocky road at the major-league level so far. The young right-hander owns a 5.34 ERA and 1.40 WHIP over 92.2 career frames. He’s given up multiple earned runs in four of nine appearances this season as well. Current Diamondbacks hitters haven’t had much exposure to Kingham, but Wilmer Flores, David Peralta and Christian Walker have four RBI against him over five combined at-bats.

The D-Backs own 36 extra-base hits against right-handed pitching at home this season, while Kingham has allowed nine of the 16 hits he’s surrendered thus far to go for extra bases. He also sports a mediocre 63.1 percent strand rate. Given that he’s yet to pitch more than four innings in any outing this season and how hittable he’s been, I see Kingham as best worth avoiding despite his bargain prices.

Hitter To Fade

Nicholas Castellanos vs. HOU ($3.8k DraftKings, $3.2k FanDuel)

Castellanos’ .264/.320/.429 line is a serviceable one, but his power numbers are down this season. Then, he runs into a particularly difficult matchup against Astros right-hander Brad Peacock on Monday. Castellanos has one hit — albeit a home run — in 11 career plate appearances against Peacock while striking out on four occasions. Then, Peacock has been particularly tough on right-handed hitters, as evidenced by a .162 BAA and .215 wOBA versus that handedness. Plus, Peacock has yet to allow a home run to righty bats over a 74-batter sample.

Castellanos has struggled versus right-handed pitching on the road as well. The veteran owns only a .300 wOBA versus righty arms outside of Comerica Park while striking out at a 29.0 percent rate against that handedness. And Castellanos has a very poor track record versus Peacock’s most often-used pitch, the slider. While Peacock is yielding a stingy .190 wOBA and has produced an impressive 33.3 percent strikeout rate with the pitch, Castellanos sports a middling .283 wOBA and mammoth 36.7 percent strikeout rate against it.

Stack To Fade

Angels at Twins (RHP Jose Berrios)

Berrios has been a pitcher to avoid stacking against all season, and with good reason. The right-hander owns a 2.53 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 51:8 K:BB across 53.1 innings. He’s been especially dominant at Target Field. Through 27.1 home frames, Berrios owns a .198 BAA and .222 wOBA. Berrios’ other impressive home metrics includes a 28.6 percent strikeout rate and minuscule 0.66 BB/9. Berrios is also holding left-handed hitters to a .187 wOBA and right-handed bats to a .250 wOBA in his home park.

The Angels have a relatively innocuous .317 wOBA against right-handed pitching on the road, and Target Field hasn’t exactly been conducive to offense. The stadium sports the third-lowest run factor (0.714) and fifth-lowest home-run factor (0.712). Los Angeles’ team batting average already sees a 28-point dip (.233, compared to .261) on the road, and they’ve also hit 50.0 percent fewer homers when traveling (18) than at home (36) in just one fewer game.

Given Berrios’ excellent season thus far and the various other factors just cited, it would be prudent to avoid Angels bats Monday.

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