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mlb dfs

We have an eight-game MLB DFS slate on Saturday, 5/11/19 beginning at 7:10 p.m. EDT. Below is a list of our best pitchers, hitters, and stacks to target (Three Up) and fade (Three Down) in MLB DFS contests. Note that some of these plays are recommended for Cash, and some are best reserved for GPP lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Please note the advice below is relevant for daily fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, and lots of other factors. This is important to consider when constructing a roster. Remember that more than in other sports, variance is a huge part of baseball. Even Mike Trout can go 0-for-4 on a given night, and Max Scherzer can get lit up by a weak team.

Weather can also play a huge role in MLB DFS on a nightly basis, and lineups are constantly shifting. So always, always check the starting lineups and weather reports when playing for an MLB slate. If a game gets rained out, your player gets zero points!

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Sat. Slugfest: $16 entry, $200k guaranteed (DraftKings) – $50k to 1st!
Power Alley: $44 entry, $40k guaranteed (DraftKings)- $5K to 1st!
Sat. Squeeze: $5.55 entry, $100k guaranteed (FanDuel) – $20K to 1st!
Sat. Grand Slam: $77 entry, $100K guaranteed (FanDuel)- $25K to 1st!

Three Up for May 11, 2019

Best Pitcher

Jacob deGrom vs. MIA ($11k DraftKings, $11.3k FanDuel)

Neither Noah Syndergaard nor deGrom has been anywhere near top form this season. However, the latter has been trending in the right direction of late and draws a “get-right” matchup Saturday. DeGrom checks in with back-to-back quality starts against the Reds and Pirates. He allowed just two earned runs over 14 innings in those outings while recording 13 strikeouts.

The Mets right-hander already pitched seven innings of scoreless ball against the Marlins once this season, a game in which he recorded a whopping 14 strikeouts. Current Marlins hitters have a middling .240 average and .292 slugging percentage against deGrom over 96 career at-bats while striking out on 27 occasions.

Furthermore, the Marlins came into Friday night’s action with a .270 wOBA against right-handed pitching over the last two weeks of play. For the season, they sport a .251 wOBA, -24.0 wRAA, .206 average and 25.5 percent strikeout rate versus righties on the road, and they’d scored an MLB-low 102 runs overall heading into Friday night’s action.

Given the matchup, I see deGrom as either a cash or GPP play Saturday.

Other pitchers to consider: Walker Buehler (vs. WAS), Zach Eflin (at KC), Jeff Samardzija (vs. CIN)

Best Hitter

George Springer vs. TEX ($5.7k DraftKings, $4.7k FanDuel)

Springer is likely to face an opener such as Kyle Dowdy or Ariel Jurado to start Saturday’s game and then will see Drew Smyly in the middle innings. The red-hot outfielder should be in a good spot in both scenarios. Jurado posted a 5.93 ERA and 1.54 WHIP across 54.2 innings in his first exposure to big-league bats last season. Dowdy owns a 6.50 ERA and 1.78 WHIP over 18 innings across nine appearances this season. And Springer owns a .444 average versus Smyly in 13 career plate appearances. What’s more, all four hits he’s managed in that sample have gone for extra bases, including a pair of homers.

Springer’s success against Smyly isn’t surprising considering his track record against left-handers. The slugger owns a .323 average, .485 wOBA and .419 ISO against lefties, along with a hefty 28.6 percent line-drive rate and 258 wRC+ versus that handedness at Minute Maid Park. The Rangers’ bullpen can also be quite accommodating. Texas relievers have allowed a .324 wOBA on the road, along with a 27.4 percent line-drive rate, and 38.7 percent hard-contact rate.

Other hitters to consider: Brandon Belt (vs. CIN), Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman (all vs. TEX), Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado (vs. SD), Nelson Cruz, Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, C.J. Cron (all vs. DET), David Peralta, Eduardo Escobar, Adam Jones (all vs. ATL) 

Best Stack

Twins vs. DET (LHP Gregory Soto) 

Soto reportedly will be called up from Double-A Erie to serve as the starter for the nightcap of Saturday’s twin bill. The southpaw has pitched only 13.1 innings above the High-A level, so asking him to take on a potent lineup that includes the likes of Nelson Cruz, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario, and C.J. Cron is a tall order. Then, the Twins come into Saturday with an AL-high .404 wOBA and .353 ISO against left-handed pitching in their home park. No team has squared up more on the ball against southpaws in its home park than Minnesota. The Twins own an MLB-high 55.0 percent hard-contact rate against that handedness.

Of the nine probable starters for the Twins on Saturday, six have wOBAs of .327 or higher against left-handed pitching for the season. What’s more, five of them have ISOs of .267 or higher against southpaws, and only two have hard-contact rates of under 40.0 percent versus that handedness. Then, the Tigers bullpen figures to play a heavy role in this game. That’s good news for Minnesota, considering Detroit relievers have allowed an AL-high .280 average and a .365 wOBA this season.

Other stacks to consider: Astros (vs. TEX), Diamondbacks (vs. ATL), Tigers (at MIN)


Three Down for May 11, 2019

Pitcher To Fade

Kevin Gausman at ARI ($7.8k DraftKings, $7.3k FanDuel)   

After a pair of quality starts in his first three trips to the mound this season, Gausman has started to come back to earth. The veteran right-hander has allowed five or more runs in each of his last three starts. He also yielded five home runs over a four-appearance stretch earlier in the season. He’s particularly had trouble on the road. He’s generated a 7.15 ERA, .333 BAA, and .401 wOBA across 11.1 frames over three appearances outside of SunTrust Park.

The Diamondbacks have also squared up on the ball often against right-handed pitching — an impressive 93 extra-base hits this season. That’s partly the byproduct of a solid 38.0 percent hard-contact rate versus that handedness. And although Chase Field hasn’t been as hitter-friendly in 2019 as past seasons, it has a well-earned reputation as a stadium where a game can get away from a pitcher in a hurry.

Hitter To Fade

Nomar Mazara at HOU ($3.6k DraftKings, $3k FanDuel)

Mazara made noise Opening Day with a 482-foot home run off the Cubs’ Mike Montgomery. It’s more or less been downhill since then. The outfielder is slashing just .224/.281/.424 with six homers overall. He’s hitting just .217/.280/.370 against right-handed pitching as well. Saturday, he draws a tough matchup. Astros starter Gerrit Cole has held Mazara to a .063/.167/.063 line across 16 career encounters. Mazara has all of one single against him in that sample, along with 10 strikeouts.

Cole has held left-handed hitters to a .213 average overall, including .182 in his home park. He also owns a whopping 13.68 K/9 against that handedness in the early going. Then, the Houston bullpen won’t be any easier a target for Mazara once Cole exits. Astros relievers own an MLB-low .203 wOBA and .212 OBP against left-handed hitters, along with a .160 BAA and 54:12 K:BB.

Stack To Fade

Nationals at LAD (RHP Walker Buehler)

In addition to the Marlins, the Nationals are another stay-away stack Saturday. Dodgers starter Walker Buehler has underachieved relative to expectations but hasn’t suffered any major blowups. Plus, he’s allowed three earned runs or fewer in four consecutive starts. His most recent trip to the mound was his longest of the campaign. Buehler turned in a quality start against the Braves, allowing three earned runs on five hits while tying a season high with eight strikeouts.

The Nationals have been among the most punchless offenses in the league against right-handed pitching on the road over the last two weeks. They checked into Friday night’s action with a .248 wOBA, .079 ISO and 26.8 percent strikeout rate against righties when traveling during that stretch (224 plate appearances). Zooming out to a season-long view, the numbers aren’t that much better. The Nats have posted a middling .302 wOBA, -7.1 wRAA and 24.3 percent strikeout rate versus righties outside of Nationals Park in 2019.

Finally, consider Buehler’s home record this season. Although he sports a 4.41 ERA at Dodger Stadium, Buehler has a 2-0 record, .213 BAA, and 16 strikeouts across 16.1 home frames.

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