Please note the advice below is relevant for daily fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, and lots of other factors. This is important to consider when constructing a roster.
Injuries play a huge role in NBA DFS on a nightly basis and rotations can always shift in the postseason. Value plays on the various daily fantasy sites can arise at a moment’s notice, so always, always check the starting lineups and injury news right before tipoff.
The Full Roster contests on FanDuel include a new scoring system in which the lowest score of the nine selected players is dropped, allowing users to take more risks with a punt play or two. Then, DraftKings has brought back its late swap for NBA contests.
5/12/19 NBA DFS TOURNAMENT PICKS
Game 7 Spectacular: $18 entry, $555k guaranteed (DraftKings) – $105,555 to 1st!
Four Point Play: $4 entry, $100k guaranteed (DraftKings)
Game 7 Special: $17.77 entry, $400k guaranteed (FanDuel) – $100,000 to 1st!
Shot: $7.77 entry, $77k guaranteed (FanDuel)
NBA DFS Top Plays for May 12, 2019
Three Up for May 12, 2019
Nikola Jokic vs. POR ($10.2k DraftKings, $11.1k FanDuel)
The Joker has fouled out in consecutive games, but still reached his lofty of floor of 55-60 DraftKings point. That type of security is invaluable on a slate of Game 7s where other players could shrink under pressure. Nikola Jokic arguably has the most versatile game in the NBA and he’s been a beast in his first postseason campaign with averages of 24.8 PPG, 13 RPG, and 8.9 APG. He was far better at home this season with a 124 offensive rating and .614 true shooting percentage. Plus, Jokic has the advantage of operating against a hobbled Enes Kanter (shoulder) or the Blazers backup centers.
Jimmy Butler at TOR ($7.9k DraftKings, $9.9k FanDuel)
We’re not advocating an all-out fade of Kawhi Leonard, but it might be worth saving a bit at his position. Leonard has obviously been the focal point of Philadelphia’s defense all series, which has led to diminishing lines in each of Toronto’s last two home games. Jimmy Butler should play an integral role in containing Leonard and in keeping the Sixers offense on schedule in a tough road environment. He’s essentially the only playoff veteran in their lineup along with J.J. Redick, who has found very limited space to shoot in this series. Butler’s averaging 25.6 PPG, 8.2 RPG, and 6.6 APG over his last five appearances. He sees a 3.8% increase in usage rate (to 26.3%) when Joel Embiid is off the floor and Embiid has largely been ineffective aside from a big Game 4 performance.
Zach Collins at DEN ($4.1k DraftKings, $5.3k FanDuel)
Because of the aforementioned injury to Enes Kanter, Zach Collins is looking like a prime value tonight. The Blazers have to match size in a tough matchup against Jokic and Paul Millsap. Collins has been equal to the task with a 119 defensive rating over the last three games of this series. He blocked five shots in Game 6 and is averaging 1.05 FPs per minute over his last five outings. Rodney Hood will be a popular value after his 25-point outburst on Thursday, but his absurd shooting percentage is less sustainable than Collins ability to rack up rebounds and defensive stats.
Three Down for May 12, 2019
Joel Embiid at TOR ($8.7k DraftKings, $10.5k FanDuel)
Joel Embiid is an easy fade on FanDuel at a price tag that is right behind that of Jokic. However, he’s a somewhat appealing GPP play on DraftKings with the potential to exceed his modest price tag. Toronto has done a great job defending him this series with the exception of a rare outburst in Game 4, where he hit first three attempts from long range and finished 9-for-18 from the floor over 28 minutes. Embiid has since ramped up his playing time, but he’s averaging just 0.93 FPs per minute over his last two outings. Marc Gasol is making everything difficult for him on the interior and if his outside shot is falling, Embiid could struggle in his first Game 7.
C.J. McCollum at DEN ($6.9k DraftKings, $7.6k FanDuel)
Damian Lillard is priced low enough to be locked into lineups on both main DFS sites, but C.J. McCollum is a bit less dependable in a road Game 7. He’s been great in Portland, but is 20-for-53 (37.7%) from the floor over three appearances in Denver this series. McCollum managed 18 points on 7-for-19 FG shooting in his sole appearance at Pepsi Center this season. He’s not a reliable DFS play when his shot isn’t falling considering he’s averaging just 3.7 RPG and 2.3 APG throughout his postseason career. Denver held opponents to 44.8% FG shooting and yielded just 103.3 PPG at home this season.
Kyle Lowry vs. PHI ($6.4k DraftKings, $7.1k FanDuel)
A few seasons back, Kyle Lowry dropped 35 points in a Game 7 win over the Heat to lead the Raptors in a blowout win. But his confidence has declined dramatically since then and he’s now clearly the third option on his team behind Leonard and Pascal Siakam. Lowry owns a meager 16.9% usage rate over his last four appearances and has struggled against the Sixers rangy defense all season. He actually shot worse (33%) from downtown in home games this season and is just 5-for-32 (15.6%) from deep in this series. Jamal Murray is a vastly superior play in a similar price range on DK.