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MLB DFS

We have a 14-game MLB DFS slate on Friday, 5/10/19 beginning at 7:05 p.m. EDT. Below is a list of our best pitchers, hitters, and stacks to target (Three Up) and fade (Three Down) in MLB DFS contests. Note that some of these plays are recommended for Cash and some are best reserved for GPP lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Please note the advice below is relevant for daily fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, and lots of other factors. This is important to consider when constructing a roster. Remember that more than in other sports, variance is a huge part of baseball. Even Mike Trout can go 0-for-4 on a given night, and Max Scherzer can get lit up by a weak team.

Weather can also play a huge role in MLB DFS on a nightly basis, and lineups are constantly shifting. So always, always check the starting lineups and weather reports when playing for an MLB slate. If a game gets rained out, your player gets zero points!

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BEST MLB DFS TOURNAMENTS FOR 5/10

Extra Inning: $10 entry, $200k guaranteed (DraftKings) – $50k to 1st!
Medium 8s: $88 entry, $200k guaranteed (DraftKings)- $50K to 1st!
Fri. Rally: $9.99 entry, $125k guaranteed (FanDuel) – $25K to 1st!
Fri. Grand Slam: $55 entry, $150K guaranteed (FanDuel)- $30K to 1st!

Three Up for May 10, 2019

Best Pitcher

Luis Castillo at SF ($10.6k DraftKings, $10.5k FanDuel)

Castillo is poised to fully deliver on last season’s promise. The hard-throwing right-hander owns no shortage of impressive metrics: 1.97 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 10.55 K/9, 0.54 HR/9, and an 82.6 percent strand rate. What’s more, all of those figures are career bests. He draws the right type of matchup, both from a team and stadium perspective, with which to continue that dominance Friday.

The Giants come in dead last in the Majors with an anemic .235 wOBA and .186 average across 327 plate appearances versus right-handed pitching in their home park. They also sport an MLB-worst -22.2 wRAA against righties at Oracle Park, where they’ve struck out versus that handedness at a 25.7 percent clip. Then, the spacious Oracle currently has the fifth-lowest run factor (0.810) and an MLB-low 0.530 home-run factor.

Castillo has been at his best at home. However, as his season numbers imply, he’s been far from ineffective anywhere. The right-hander owns an impressive 2.55 ERA, .210 BAA, and .296 wOBA allowed in 17.2 road frames. And he’s missed more bats outside of his home stadium. While Castillo sports a 9.92 K/9 at Great American Ballpark, he’s mowing down hitters at a rate of 11.72 per nine when traveling. That’s also helped lead to a near-seven-point boost in strand rate from home (82.7 percent) to road (89.6 percent).

Given his consistency (one out short of six quality starts this season), I see Castillo as a cash or GPP play.

Other pitchers to consider: Justin Verlander (vs. TEX), Tyler Glasnow (vs. NYY), Domingo German (at TAM), Kenta Maeda (vs. WAS), Pablo Lopez (at NYM)

Best Hitter

Josh Bell at STL ($5k DraftKings, $4.1k FanDuel)

Plenty of other sluggers get the big headlines, but Bell is doing his best to remind the baseball world he’s just as deserving. The switch-hitting first baseman is up to nine round-trippers on the season heading into Thursday night’s action. His most recent blast was a memorable one. Bell took the Rangers’ Shelby Miller deep for a 472-foot shot Wednesday, depositing the ball in the Allegheny River behind PNC Park. Notably, that didn’t even qualify as his longest blast of the season, as he’d also launched a 474-footer earlier in the campaign.

Bell has also punished Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright over the course of his career. The slugging Pirate boasts a .455 average against the aging St. Louis right-hander across 13 career plate appearances. That sample includes a double and a homer, and just as impressive, zero strikeouts. Wainwright also comes in yielding a .328 average, .428 wOBA, and 11 extra-base hits (among 19 hits allowed overall) to lefty bats this season. Moreover, he’s allowing a 2.63 HR/9 to that handedness, along with a 50.0 percent hard-contact rate at Busch Stadium.

Bell has the track record to suggest he can capitalize on those weaknesses. His body of work versus right-handed pitching this season includes a .310 average, 20 extra-base hits (out of 27 hits overall), .446 wOBA, .414 ISO, and a 46.3 percent hard-contact rate. He also owns an absurd 37.0 percent line-drive rate versus that handedness on the road.

Other hitters to consider: Kolten Wong, Marcell Ozuna, Matt Carpenter, Jose Martinez, Paul DeJong (all vs. PIT), Elvis Andrus (at HOU), Edwin Encarnacion, Dee Gordon (both vs. BOS), Kole Calhoun, Mike Trout, Albert Pujols (all at BAL), Kendrys Morales, Khris Davis (vs. CLE), Andrew McCutchen, J.T. Realmuto, Bryce Harper (all at KC)

Best Stack

Angels at BAL (RHP Dan Straily) 

Orioles starter Dan Straily has already been touched up for five earned runs on three separate occasions this season. He’s also allowed eight homers across six starts, and he’s saved his worst performances for his home park of Camden Yards. Straily owns an 11.57 ERA and .412 BAA over 14 home frames. All eight of those aforementioned round-trippers have been surrendered there as well. Friday, he runs into an Angels squad that just decimated the Tigers by a 13-0 margin Thursday night and boasts multiple players who have given Straily trouble in the past.

Mike Trout (.450 average, 24 PAs), Albert Pujols (.476 average, 22 PAs), and Kole Calhoun (.300 average, 11 PAs) have all especially enjoyed their encounters versus Straily in the past. And with Straily yielding a .547 wOBA at home (.606 to righty batters, .473 wOBA to lefty hitters), a number of other Angels — Andrelton Simmons, Shohei Ohtani, and Zack Cozart among them — can also be considered. The fact Baltimore relievers have also been vulnerable to both sides of the plate further helps Los Angeles’ cause. The Orioles bullpen comes in allowing the highest ERA (7.23) and wOBA (.383) and most homers (20) of any team in its home park.

Other stacks to consider: Astros (vs. TEX), Phillies (vs. KC), Cardinals (vs. PIT), Red Sox (vs. SEA), Mariners (vs. BOS), Athletics (vs. CLE)

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Three Down for May 10, 2019

Pitcher To Fade

Erik Swanson at BOS ($7.7k DraftKings, $6.5k FanDuel) 

There are a number of questionable arms on Friday’s slates. Other stay-away candidates include the Royals’ Homer Bailey and the Indians’ Cody Anderson. Swanson also qualifies due to his matchup against a Red Sox squad that’s been especially hot against right-handed pitching at home. Coming into Friday’s action, Boston owns a .340 wOBA versus righties at Fenway Park for the season. That includes a .355 wOBA over the last two weeks of play, a stretch during which they’re also scoring an MLB-high 8.0 runs above average against that handedness.

Swanson dazzled in his native Ohio in his last start. He fired six innings of one-hit, scoreless ball. However, he’d been lit up by the Padres and Rangers for a total of 14 runs (10 earned) over his prior two trips to the mound. He’s also allowing a .302 average, .392 wOBA, 5.67 xFIP and a 22.2 percent HR/FB to right-handed hitters, along with a 44.0 percent hard-contact rate and bloated 60.9 percent flyball rate to that handedness on the road. All of those numbers especially spell trouble versus the Red Sox, which roll out the likes of Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Steve Pearce, and Michael Chavis from that side of the plate.

Hitter To Fade

Freddie Freeman at ARI ($4.6k DraftKings, $4k FanDuel)

Freeman is always a risky fade due to his outstanding upside. However, the proficient slugger runs into some personal Kryptonite in the form of Diamondbacks starter Zack Greinke on Friday. The Arizona ace has frustrated Freeman to the tune of a .167/.167/.233 line across 30 career plate appearances. That sample includes just two extra-base hits (two doubles) and 10 strikeouts.

Greinke is also enjoying one of his better seasons against left-handed hitters in recent memory. Over a 95-batter sample, Greinke owns a .176 BAA, .212 wOBA, and 2.26 xFIP against lefty bats. What’s more, he’s yielded just a 25.4 percent hard-contact rate to that handedness. Greinke has also been tough in what is normally a hitter-friendly home park. Through 21.1 innings at Chase Field this season, the veteran owns a 2.53 ERA, .211 BAA and .254 wOBA allowed.

Then, D-Backs relievers have yielded a respectable .309 wOBA and only two homers to left-handed hitters at home thus far in 2019, dampening Freeman’s prospects a bit further.

Stack To Fade

Mets vs. MIA (RHP Pablo Lopez)

Marlins starter Pablo Lopez unsurprisingly flies under the radar due to his team. However, the right-hander has been impressive in the early going. Lopez’ slightly elevated 4.03 ERA is offset by a rock-solid 1.08 WHIP, 3.63 SIERA, and minuscule 0.47 HR/9. Lopez has admittedly been better at pitcher-friendly Marlins Park, but he’s drawing a favorable matchup Friday. The Mets check in with a 27.0 percent strikeout rate, .211 average, -9.5 wRAA, and .269 wOBA against righties at home over the last two weeks of play (241 plate appearances).

Zooming out to a larger season-long sample, New York is still striking out at a 25.2 percent clip against righties at Citi Field. Speaking of the Mets’ home park, the stadium has been relatively kind to pitchers this season. Coming into Friday’s action, it sports a bottom-half run factor (1.003). Then, the stadium also has a bottom-five or bottom-10 hit factor (0.867), doubles factor (0.741), and triples factor (0.978). What’s more, Lopez has churned out quality starts in two of his last three trips to the mound, including in a road date against the Indians.

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