The MLB season is rolling, and there’s a great DFS slate on tap for Thursday, 5/9/19. Below is a list of our best pitchers, hitters, and stacks to target (Three Up) and fade (Three Down) in MLB DFS contests during the afternoon.
Please note the advice below is relevant for daily fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, and lots of other factors. This is important to consider when constructing a roster. Remember that more than in other sports, variance is a huge part of baseball. Even Mike Trout can go 0-for-4 on a given night, and Max Scherzer can get lit up by a weak team.
Weather can also play a huge role in MLB DFS on a nightly basis, and lineups are constantly shifting. So always, always check the starting lineups and weather reports when playing for an MLB slate. If a game gets rained out, your player gets zero points!
BEST MLB DFS TOURNAMENTS FOR 5/9/19
Relay Throw: $15 entry, $150k guaranteed (DraftKings) – $50,000 to 1st!
Four Seamer: $4 entry, $25k guaranteed (DraftKings)
Squeeze: $9.99 entry, $100k guaranteed (FanDuel)
Squeeze: $7.77 entry: $50k guaranteed (FanDuel)
Three Up for May 9, 2019
Patrick Corbin at LAD ($9.2k DraftKings, $9.0k FanDuel)
On a short slate, Patrick Corbin stands alone in terms of dramatic upside. He does come with some risk in a road start against the slugging Dodgers, but the Dodgers own a modest .252 collective average and relatively weak 20.7% line drive rate when facing lefties. Current Dodgers are 34-for-139 (.245) with more Ks (38) than hits in their careers against Corbin. Defensive-minded catcher Austin Barnes has accounted for 2 of the 4 HR off Corbin in that sample, and Justin Turner (12-for-29, 2 HR) has been a problem, but Corbin has otherwise dominated their lineup. While he’s not necessarily living up to his huge contract, Corbin owns a respectable 27.8% K-Rate and a curveball that rates 3.52 runs above average. He’s posting a much lower LD Rate (16.5%) overall this year and has a lofty 9.00 K/BB ratio with a 2.82 FIP in LvL matchups.
Other pitchers to consider: Luke Weaver, Joe Musgrove
George Springer vs. TEX ($5.0k DraftKings, $4.4k FanDuel)
Even though Mike Minor blanked the mighty Astros over 7 IP early in the season, the 31-year-old LHP can be targeted with a few of Houston’s elite righties. George Springer sits atop that list with a .420 wOBA and a 17.1% BB Rate when facing LHPs this year. He walked and singled off Minor in that meeting, and then was caught stealing. Clearly, Springer is going to try to make things happen atop the Astros order against a crafty lefty that leans heavily on his changeup. (Minor throws offspeed 25.6% of the time this season.) Springer owns a 13.4 net rating against changeups and a 55.5 net rating against fastballs over the past three-plus seasons. He’s now 6-for-17 (.353) with 5 BB in his career against Minor.
Anthony Rendon at LAD ($4.4k DraftKings, $4.0k FanDuel)
Washington is certainly capable of providing good run support for Corbin tonight against veteran LHP Rich Hill. He may be the most expensive arm on the board, but Hill is rocking a 30.8% HR/FB ratio with a .286 BAA over two starts in his age 39 season. The Nats lead the Majors with a 25.4% HR/FB ratio and .368 wOBA when facing LHPs this season.
Anthony Rendon owns a .523 wOBA and 28.6% HR/FB ratio against southpaws. His price tag is down as he’s struggled to replicate his early-season success following a brief stint on the IL with an elbow issue, but Rendon is bound to regain his rhythm soon. This is a prime spot for him to do so, considering he owns a .958 OPS against lefties and a 1.037 OPS at Dodger Stadium over the last three years.
Other hitters to consider: Luke Voit, David Peralta, Clint Frazier, Christian Walker, Justin Turner, Starling Marte, Hunter Pence, Gio Urshela, Victor Robles, Omar Narvaez, Tim Beckham
Pirates vs. Michael Wacha (Cardinals)
The Pirates aren’t usually the first offense that comes to mind when you think of stacking power bats, yet they have a great chance to pile up runs tonight. The Cardinals are starting vulnerable veteran RHP Michael Wacha, who has been rocked to the tune of a 2.89 HR/9 ratio, .306 BAA, and 8.07 FIP over two appearances at Busch Stadium this year. Wacha posted an 18.2% HR/FB ratio in RvR matchups last year and coughed up a 42.7% hard contact rate overall. He’s actually posted great splits with a 3.78 ERA and .220 BAA over his last nine starts against Pittsburgh, but the Pirates may be in line for positive regression with the sixth-highest line drive rate (23.7%) in the MLB over the past week.
Starling Marte is the most appealing tournament play in this stack given Wacha’s struggles against righties. Marte is also 3-for-3 on stolen base attempts against Wacha. Jung-Ho Kang has also flashed upside against Wacha with 4 hits, including a HR and double, over 9 career at-bats. The difference makers in the Pirates lineup should be young bats in Bryan Reynolds and Adam Frazier. Reynolds sat on Wednesday afternoon but could relieve veteran Melky Cabrera for this Thursday night game. Josh Bell is only 2-for-13 in his career against Wacha but is certainly a GPP option with the potential to homer or at least extend his eight-game hitting streak.
Other stacks to consider: Yankees vs. Mike Leake (Mariners)
Three Down for May 9, 2019
Pitcher To Fade
Mike Soroka at ARI ($9.0k DraftKings, $9.8k FanDuel)
Mike Soroka is off to an incredible start this year with a 1.14 ERA and 1.01 WHIP through four outings. That includes spinning five innings of one-run ball against the Diamondbacks on April 18, but Arizona’s offense has caught fire since then. The D’Backs are third in the N.L. in collective wOBA (.328) and trail only the Cubs in ISO mark (.227) over the past two weeks. Arizona is also more dangerous at Chase Field, a stadium with one of the highest Run Factors in the Majors. Soroka posted a .345 BABIP thanks to an alarming 32.1% line drive rate last year. Plus, he’s been a bit lucky to post a .245 BABIP with a 24.6% LD Rate so far this season.
Hitter To Fade
Paul Goldschmidt vs. PIT ($4.3k DraftKings, $3.6k FanDuel)
Pirates RHP Joe Musgrove has been as stingy as anyone in RvR matchups. He’s held RHBs to a .160 average and .212 wOBA so far this season. Musgrove owns a 1.23 ERA and 0.61 WHIP over road starts and righties are just 4-for-39 (.114) with a meek .161 wOBA against him in those outings. That includes shutdown performances at the Cubs and Dodgers, so the lengthy 26-year-old might be able to cool off the red-hot Cardinals as well. Paul Goldschmidt is a disappointing 5-for-30 without an XBH so far in May and is hitting only .232 with a meager 13.2% line drive rate at Busch Stadium.
Stack To Fade
Rangers vs. HOU (LHP Wade Miley)
The Rangers offense has been rolling lately. However, that lefty-heavy lineup continues to struggle against southpaws despite the addition of veteran righty bats in Hunter Pence and Logan Forsythe. Texas ranks 28th with a collective .217 average and owns the sixth-highest K-Rate (27.4%) against LHPs this year. Astros LHP Wade Miley has been far from spectacular, but he knows how to avoid major damage. Miley is rocking a 2.08 ERA with a 52.9% ground ball rate and .200 BAA over three starts at Minute Maid Park this year. While he’s given up a HR in four consecutive starts, he’s not allowing runners with a 5.5% BB Rate and 1.17 WHIP, limiting the appeal of an overall team stack.