The National Football League regular season is over and we are headed to the postseason, starting with Wild Card Weekend. NFL betting takes on a life of its own in the playoffs and even though fewer games are on, parlays still play a huge role in that.
Parlays, which include multiple legs combined into the same bet with enhanced odds, are risky but exciting wagers that are offered to bettors in various forms. We’ll get into some of what you can expect to find, plus we’ll make some NFL Wild Card parlay picks in the process.
If you’re into other bet types aside from parlays, feel free to check out some of our other weekly NFL betting content before heading to the online sportsbooks:
- NFL Best Bets For Wild Card Weekend
- SNF Wild Card Preview
- MNF Wild Card Preview
- Wild Card NFL Computer Picks
NFL Wild Card Weekend Parlays | BEST PARLAY BETS THIS WEEK
*odds are subject to change after writing*
NFL Wild Card Same Game Parlay Picks
At first glance, a slimmed-down schedule looks like it’d be more difficult to craft parlays. And while that can be true if you’re looking for a few different games, there’s also the option to place same-game parlays (SGPs) at most sportsbooks.
These bets allow you to combine multiple elements from the same game into one bet, enhancing the odds with each selection, and SGPs are perfect for the postseason when there’s only one game on at a time. The below parlay is for the Bengals vs. Raiders game on Saturday and it gives us +1100 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook:
- Las Vegas Raiders +7.5 Alternate Spread
- Under 54.5 Alternate Total
- Joe Burrow 230+ Passing Yards
- Tyler Boyd 30+ Receiving Yards
- Hunter Renfrow 50+ Receiving Yards
- Josh Jacobs 15+ Receiving Yards
The 6.5-point spread quickly shrunk to 5.5 or even a flat five points at some books, and we’re siding with the early movement in thinking that Las Vegas can keep this game close. The three-score win for Cincinnati at Allegiant Stadium earlier this season is sure to make the Bengals the public favorite but for us, a touchdown is enough despite what looks like it should be an easy Bengals win, at least on paper.
Las Vegas has found ways to get to the quarterback without having to blitz, and protecting Joe Burrow is the Bengals’ No. 1 issue. There’s no question that Cincinnati is set at the skill positions but the prevailing thought is that it won’t be as easy for Burrow as it was the last time these two played. And the disparity in overall point differential, Bengals’ defense hasn’t been any better than Las Vegas’ over the last month, and the Raiders’ offense is playing some of its best football going into the postseason with an apparently healthy Josh Jacobs.
That brings us to some of the player props, including Jacobs. He hasn’t done much catching the ball in the past three games but before that was a steady stream of receiving numbers, and we’re asking for 15+ receiving yards. Tyler Boyd has surpassed 30+ yards in five straight games and one would think the Raiders will do all they can to not let Ja’Marr Chase be the only one catching balls for Cincinnati.
What can we say about Hunter Renfrow? He’s been Derek Carr’s favorite target due to his reliability but even with Darren Waller back, Renfrow might be the most dangerous man on the field over in the slot. His prop is around 62.5 yards but we’re just asking for 50, which he could do in three quarters.
Joe Burrow topped 255+ passing yards 10 times this season including four of the past five games (all 300+ yards), though he did only throw for 147 yards against the Raiders the last time out. This is right around where his prop is and it’s correlated to how we think the game will go. Las Vegas remaining close means the Bengals will continue to throw the ball, and 25 or more attempts for Burrow usually means surpassing this number.
In all, it’s important to remember that the Bengals play at one of the slowest paces in football despite all of that offensive firepower. The Raiders are a top-five unit in not allowing explosive passes and should keep the Bengals in front of them, lengthening drives and chewing the clock. We like the original under but have taken some extra points in this one.
Wild Card Weekend Parlay Picks | Side/Total Parlays
For any NFL game, bettors can also link the moneyline or spread together with the over/under without any of the props. This is technically still a same-game parlay, but one that is just correlating between a team and the total.
Correlation bets featuring a team and the total are growing in popularity and are offered in diverse ways. You can choose to build these yourself with the sides and totals of your choice, or you can choose one of the pre-made options at a site such as FanDuel or BetMGM, among others.
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
Bucs -5.5 & Under 50.5 (+125 or better): We know Phills has an excellent run game and relies on it to jump-start the offense with Jalen Hurts, but that may not happen here. Tampa Bay ranks second in the NFL in EPA per play against the run over the past four weeks and we expect Jalen Hurts to be forced into more long passing downs than he’s comfortable with.
The Bucs’ offense is dealing with a ton of injuries but has still managed to win seven of eight to close the season, scoring 30+ points in six of them. These two teams also play at fast paces, which lends itself to the over. But the line move and betting data trend toward the under and we’re siding with that, taking a couple of extra points in the process.
San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys (Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET)
Cowboys ML & Over 46.5 (+160 or better): Each of these teams has the ability to attack the other at its specific weak points, and that lends itself to points being scored. In a game with points going back and forth, we like the Cowboys’ offense to prevail.
San Francisco is the top-rated run defense over the past month according to EPA per play, but Dallas’ passing attack is equipped to attack its weak secondary. The Cowboys rank sixth according to PFF through the air and are a top-five offense in yards per play.
Dallas has a pass defense unit but struggles to stop the run, which is the Niners’ bread and butter whether Jimmy G or Trey Lance is in there. There’s admittedly a concern that San Francisco controls the game with the rushing attack, chewing up yards and clock with it.
This does feel a bit like a coin flip, as evidenced by the home team being favored by three, but we’re removing the spread and taking Dallas to build on its division-winning season with a big postseason win.
NFL Wild Card Parlay Picks | Three-Leg Parlay For Wild Card Weekend
There are an infinite number of options to choose from each week, it can be overwhelming. And while a 10-leg parlay for thousands of dollars is what you see on social media, most winning parlays look very different.
It’s always fun going for a huge payday, but there’s a much better chance of actually coming out on top if sticking to just a couple of legs at manageable odds. In the playoffs, we’re kind of forced to limit the number of options, and that can be a good thing.
This week, we’re getting +445 odds at DraftKings for the following three legs:
- Raiders/Bengals 1st Half Under 24.5
- Steelers/Chiefs 1st Half Under 24.5
- Rams -3
The Raiders and Bengals played a slow-paced opening half earlier this season, and we are expecting a similar start to this playoff game. The Raiders’ run defense has been a top 10 group over the past month and the Bengals actually play at a slow pace. If Vegas can limit the explosive plays early, this one should go under 24.5 points.
Pittsburgh is a team that has struggled mightily to score in the opening half. Just once over the past two months did the Steelers score more than three points in the first two quarters. Kansas City led 23-0 at halftime a few weeks back and could see this one with a similar total.
The Rams’ failure to clinch the NFC West on its own was alarming, but the Cardinals’ inability to take advantage was even more concerning. Kliff Kingsbury has a great ATS history as an underdog and it’s possible we’re taking the bait on a line that’s already shrunk, but we’ll take our chances.
There’s a chance James Conner either won’t play or will be compromised, and that’s just another blow considering this offense doesn’t have DeAndre Hopkins. The Rams are top 10 in defensive EPA per play for the season and remain Pro Football Focus’ top-ranked defense in the NFL.
The key here is Matthew Stafford avoiding the big turnover, which he did the last time out vs. Arizona. And with Jalen Ramsey in the lineup this time around, Murray won’t be quite so efficient.
NFL Wild Card Betting Odds
HOW DO NFL PARLAYS WORK?
Parlays are bets which consist of two or more selections, resulting in the odds being boosted higher than you’d see from a typical straight bet. The potential to win much more than you risk is one of the reasons why parlays are so popular.
Exact parlay odds depend on multiple factors including the number of selections and the exact lines of each one, but all parlays will feature enhanced odds in some fashion. Remember that all legs of your parlay need to win for you to receive the full payout, and a push will remove the selection and keep the parlay alive.
You can include moneylines, spreads, totals, and even props in many cases, and bettors can choose to link together just two sides, or up 12 or more depending on the sportsbook. Parlays are wholly customizable, meaning bettors get to choose how big they want the odds to go, how many sides will be included, and how difficult to make each leg of the parlay.
While some bettors want high odds and a huge payday, just like you see on social media. But just because the occasional big wins are what you see go viral, they are closer to the exception and not the rule.
The way to establish consistency is to have just two or three sides and avoid chasing astronomical odds. Of course, it’s fine to take your shot at a massive payout as well, but be sure to only risk money you’re prepared to lose.