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MLB DFS Picks

We have a nine-game MLB DFS slate on Monday, 5/6/19 beginning at 7:05 p.m. EDT. Below is a list of our best pitchers, hitters, and stacks to target (Three Up) and fade (Three Down) in MLB DFS contests. Note that some of these plays are recommended for Cash and some are best reserved for GPP lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Please note the advice below is relevant for daily fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, and lots of other factors. This is important to consider when constructing a roster. Remember that more than in other sports, variance is a huge part of baseball. Even Mike Trout can go 0-for-4 on a given night, and Max Scherzer can get lit up by a weak team.

Weather can also play a huge role in MLB DFS on a nightly basis, and lineups are constantly shifting. So always, always check the starting lineups and weather reports when playing for an MLB slate. If a game gets rained out, your player gets zero points!

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BEST MLB DFS TOURNAMENTS FOR 5/6

Rally Cap: $8 entry, $200k guaranteed (DraftKings) – $50k to 1st!
Medium 8s: $88 entry, $300k guaranteed (DraftKings)- $75K to 1st!
Mon. Rally: $9.99 entry, $100k guaranteed (FanDuel) – $20K to 1st!
Grand Slam: $66 entry, $150K guaranteed (FanDuel)- $30K to 1st!

Three Up for May 6, 2019

Best Pitcher

Cole Hamels vs. MIA ($9k DraftKings, $9k FanDuel)

Hamels has been in strong form through his first six starts. The veteran owns his best K/9 (9.08) and HR/9 (0.98) since the 2015 season. He’d generated three straight quality starts before running into some issues against the Dodgers and Mariners. Hamels still missed plenty of bats in those outings, however, striking out seven hitters in each. Monday, he draws a matchup against a Marlins squad that’s scored just nine runs over its last four games.

Miami also owns a .260 wOBA, -13.1 wRAA and 63 wRC+ versus left-handed pitching this season. The Marlins have mustered an NL-low four home runs against southpaws as well. Among current Marlins hitters, Martin Prado (.319 average) has enjoyed success against Hamels over an extensive sample. But Hamels has stymied the likes of Starlin Castro (.200 average), Brian Anderson (0-for-3), Miguel Rojas (.200 average), and Neil Walker (.133 average).

Finally, it’s worth noting that while Hamels’ Achilles’ heel — control issues — still pains him, Miami isn’t exactly the best team to exploit that. The Marlins sport an MLB-low 5.2 percent walk rate versus southpaws. Given the various factors in his favor, I see Hamels as a cash or GPP play Monday.

Other pitchers to consider: Gerrit Cole (vs. KC), Jacob deGrom (at SD), Max Scherzer (at MIL), Chris Paddack (vs. NYM), Marcus Stroman (vs. MIN)

Best Hitter

Bryce Harper at STL ($4.5k DraftKings, $4.5k FanDuel)

Harper is admittedly having trouble living up to his mammoth contract. But he retains no shortage of GPP upside. The slugging outfielder has had his way frequently with Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas. Harper owns a .571 average against Mikolas over seven plate appearances, a sample that includes a double and a homer. Mikolas is also having trouble with lefty bats. He’s allowed them a .269 average, .377 wOBA, 5.93 xFIP, and 36.4 percent hard-contact rate this year.

In turn, Harper has knocked righty arms around on the road for a .303 average, .182 ISO, .371 wOBA, 30.0 percent line-drive rate, and mammoth 52.4 percent hard-contact rate. It’s also worth noting Harper owns a .289/.372/.684 line at Busch Stadium over the last three seasons. He’s battered Cardinals pitching for a .342/.456/.712 line during that span.

Other hitters to consider: Justin Smoak, Teoscar Hernandez (both vs. MIN); Adam Jones, Christian Walker, Eduardo Escobar (all at TAM); Michael Brantley, Carlos Correa, Josh Reddick, George Springer (all vs. KC); Howie Kendrick (at MIL); Daniel Descalso, Javier Baez (both vs. MIA) 

Best Stack

Astros vs. KC (RHP Jakob Junis) 

Royals starter Jakob Junis has been in much better form over his last two starts, but he remains a volatile pitcher who can go into the tank in any given start. Meanwhile, the Astros are finally starting to wake up from their slumber. They’ve scored 24 runs over their last two games, and they also put up an 11-spot on the Twins five games ago. Junis could be just the type of pitcher to help Houston keep its bats hot.

Current Astros hitters own a .415/.422/.634 line over 41 at-bats against him. That sample includes five extra-base hits. On an individual level, Carlos Correa (.800 average), Yuli Gurriel (.500 average), Josh Reddick (.500 average), Michael Brantley (.364 average), and George Springer (.333 average) are all potent Houston bats that have given Junis plenty of trouble. Junis has particularly unraveled versus lefty bats on the road. That makes Brantley and Reddick especially appealing. He’s allowed a .409 average, .547 wOBA, and 29.4 percent line-drive rate to that handedness outside of Kauffman Stadium.

Minute Maid Park, site of Monday’s game, sports a top-half run factor (1.107) and home-run factor (1.154). And Royals relievers also make for good targets for the Astros bats. They’ve yielded a 5.14 ERA, .349 wOBA, and 38 extra-base hits (20 doubles, two triples, 16 home runs) this season.

Other stacks to consider: Cubs (vs. MIA), Nationals (at MIL), Diamondbacks (vs. TAM), Blue Jays (vs. MIN)

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Three Down for May 6, 2019

Pitcher To Fade

Sandy Alcantara at CHC ($6.3k DraftKings, $5.6k FanDuel)   

The Cubs’ bats have come to life in recent games. Following a 13-5 drubbing of the Cardinals on Sunday night, Chicago has scored 55 runs over its last seven games. They’ve put up at least six runs in six of those contests, including a pair of double-digit tallies. Meanwhile, Alcantara has had trouble finding his groove in the early going. Control issues have led to four multi-walk outings in six starts, as well as a 4.1 BB/9.

Alcantara has generated a .334 wOBA, 7.96 xFIP, and minuscule 4.6 percent strikeout rate outside of Marlins Park, along with a .395 on-base percentage. The Cubs also check in with a .331 wOBA, .216 ISO and 36.4 percent hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitching at Wrigley Field over the last two weeks of play. Plus, seven of the eight Cubs position players likely to be in Monday’s lineup own a wOBA of .336 or higher versus righty arms over that span.

Hitter To Fade

Yasmani Grandal vs. WAS ($3.9k DraftKings, $2.9k FanDuel)

A matchup against Max Scherzer is often reason enough to put a hitter into the fade category. However, Grandal has had a particularly difficult time versus the Nationals right-hander. He owns a .077 average against Scherzer across 16 career plate appearances. Eight of the 12 outs Grandal has made against Scherzer have come on strikeouts. Then, Grandal owns a 32.6 percent strikeout rate, .184 average, and .233 wOBA versus right-handed pitching at Miller Park over 43 plate appearances.

Scherzer has had his share of troubles on the road this season, but he naturally has the talent to excel in this matchup. And Scherzer owns a .179 BAA at Miller Park over the last three seasons.

Stack To Fade

Twins at TOR (RHP Marcus Stroman)

Blue Jays starter Marcus Stroman is in the midst of one of his career’s best stretches. The right-hander has seen improvement in multiple categories over last season: ERA (5.04 to 2.20), WHIP (1.48 to 1.20), K/9 (6.77 to 8.56), and strand rate (62.0 percent to 79.6 percent). Of Minnesota’s current hitters, Nelson Cruz (.545 average) is one exception in terms of success against Stroman. Yet the rest of the Twins own a mediocre .238 average against the righty over their careers.

What’s more, Stroman has been virtually unhittable at home. He’s allowed an 0.76 ERA, .181 BAA, and .236 wOBA across 23.2 Rogers Centre frames. The Twins have proven to be tough against right-handed pitching on the road, but they cooled off a bit over the weekend against the Yankees. Minnesota averaged 3.6 runs per game in that three-game set at Yankee Stadium.

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