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MLB DFS

We have an eight-game MLB DFS slate on Sunday, 5/5/19 beginning at 1:05 p.m. EDT. Below is a list of our best pitchers, hitters, and stacks to target (Three Up) and fade (Three Down) in MLB DFS contests. Note that some of these plays are recommended for Cash and some are best reserved for GPP lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Please note the advice below is relevant for daily fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, and lots of other factors. This is important to consider when constructing a roster. Remember that more than in other sports, variance is a huge part of baseball. Even Mike Trout can go 0-for-4 on a given night, and Max Scherzer can get lit up by a weak team.

Weather can also play a huge role in MLB DFS on a nightly basis, and lineups are constantly shifting. So always, always check the starting lineups and weather reports when playing for an MLB slate. If a game gets rained out, your player gets zero points!

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BEST MLB DFS TOURNAMENTS FOR 5/5

Rally Cap: $8 entry, $150k guaranteed (DraftKings) – $25k to 1st!
Pitcher’s Mound: $60.60 entry, $300k guaranteed (DraftKings)- $100K to 1st!
Lime Squeeze: $5.55 entry, $125,555k guaranteed (FanDuel) – $25,555K to 1st!
Salsa Slam: $55 entry, $125,555K guaranteed (FanDuel)- $25K to 1st!

Three Up for May 5, 2019

Best Pitcher

Frankie Montas at PIT ($8.4k DraftKings, $8.3k FanDuel)

Sunday’s early slate is a tricky one to figure out in terms of pitchers. There’s no true ace taking the hill and plenty of hitters with strong histories against the arms they’ll be facing. However, Montas has the stuff and the matchup to potentially thrive. The Pirates came into Saturday’s action with a bottom-10 batting average (.230) and wOBA (.284), along with a -29.9 wRAA. They also own a .297 wOBA and -13.2 wRAA versus righties and a .292 wOBA against righties at PNC Park.

The Pirates’ home stadium has a bottom-half home-run factor (0.995), and Montas has yielded a respectable four homers over 33.1 innings thus far. He sports a career-high 82.1 percent strand rate as well and has boosted his K/9 from a middling 5.95 in 2018 to 8.10 across his first six 2019 starts. Montas has posted quality starts in half of his six trips to the mound and should have a solid opportunity to garner his fourth of the season against a Pittsburgh squad averaging a meager 3.5 runs per contest.

Other pitchers to consider: Zach Eflin (vs. WAS), Brad Keller (at DET), John Means (vs. TAM), Zach Davies (vs. NYM), Spencer Turnbull (vs. KCR)

Best Hitter

Ronald Acuña Jr. at MIA ($4.4k DraftKings, $3.9k FanDuel)

Acuña has frequently had his way with Marlins starter Pablo Lopez. The slugger owns a .500 average with two home runs across nine career plate appearances versus Lopez, and he came into Saturday’s action with a .338 wOBA, 25.8 percent line-drive rate, and 37.8 percent hard-contact rate versus righties. Those figures were prior to a stellar 4-for-4 night versus righty starter Trevor Richards and the three right-handed relievers who followed him.

In turn, Lopez has an anemic 58.1 percent strand rate versus righty hitters and has yielded a 38.1 percent hard-contact rate to that handedness. When he exits, Acuña will also get a crack at a Marlins bullpen that was allowing an NL-high .383 wOBA and 6.62 ERA before yielding nine more earned runs Saturday.

Other hitters to consider: Ender Inciarte (at MIA), Brian Anderson (vs. PHI), Jean Segura (vs. WAS), J.T. Realmuto (vs. WAS), Bryce Harper (vs. WAS), Yolmer Sanchez (vs. BOS), Jose Abreu (vs. BOS), Christian Yelich (vs. NYM), Lorenzo Cain (vs. NYM), Xander Bogaerts (vs. CWS), J.D. Martinez (vs. CWS)

Best Stack

Red Sox at CWS (RHP Dylan Covey) 

Turns out I had the wrong Sox by a mile Saturday. It was Boston who seemingly emptied a season’s worth of frustration on Chicago. The Red Sox erupted for a nine-run inning and compiled 15 runs overall. And, interestingly, they may be in position to do similar damage Sunday now that they’ve exhausted the White Sox bullpen and also face a suspect arm in Dylan Covey. The right-hander has a 6.75 ERA and 3.00 WHIP over a small two-appearance sample thus far.

Boston comes in with the second-highest wOBA (.353) versus righties on the road over the last two weeks of play (456 plate appearances) before even factoring in Saturday’s outburst. They’re making hard contact against righties at a solid 38.0 percent clip during that span as well. The Boston lineup is loaded with highly proficient bats versus that handedness. Covey’s history of getting hit hard by both sides of the plate (.352 career wOBA against lefty hitters/.351 career wOBA vs. righty bats) bodes well for Boston.

Finally, consider five Chicago relievers put in a combined 6.1 innings and 133 pitches in Saturday’s blowout loss, and they’d already logged the fifth-most innings (29.0) over the prior week heading into Saturday.

Other stacks to consider: Marlins (vs. ATL), Braves (at MIA), Indians (vs. SEA), Brewers (vs. NYM), Mariners (at CLE), Phillies (at WAS)

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Three Down for May 5, 2019

Pitcher To Fade

Anibal Sanchez at PHI ($7.4k DraftKings, $7.1k FanDuel)   

Sanchez is carrying a 6.75 ERA, .304 BAA, .385 wOBA, and 5.73 xFIP through 16.0 road frames. He’s also yielding a 24.5 percent line-drive rate and 30.9 percent hard-contact rate outside of Nationals Park. Current Phillies hitters own a collective .260/.317/.463 line versus Sanchez, a sample that includes 12 extra-base hits. Sanchez’s 1.72 WHIP for the season has frequently gotten him into hot water, as has his mediocre 66.7 percent strand rate.

The Phillies check in with a .329 wOBA against right-handed pitching, with that figure bumping up to .338 at Citizens Bank Park. The red-hot Jean Segura (.556 average) and J.T. Realmuto (.444 average) have particularly given Sanchez trouble in the past. Then, Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, and Realmuto have all taken him deep previously. Additionally, Citizens Bank checks in with with the 11th highest run factor (1.099) and fifth-highest home-run factor (1.287), dampening Sanchez’s prospects further.

Hitter To Fade

Adam Eaton at PHI ($4.4k DraftKings, $3.6k FanDuel)

Phillies starter Zach Eflin has frustrated Eaton to the tune of a .111 average (1-for-9), with the outfielder’s one hit a mere single. Eflin has also been at his best in his home park thus far, generating a 1.13 ERA and .228 BAA over 16 frames at Citizens Bank Park. Eaton does have solid numbers versus right-handed pitching, but most of them have been accrued at Nationals Park. On the road, Eaton owns a mediocre .303 wOBA and .100 ISO against righties, along with an anemic 18.8 percent hard-contact rate.

Finally, Eaton’s struggles thus far against Eflin’s most frequently thrown pitch are worth noting. Eflin has utilized his four-seam fastball as his top pitch and is allowing an impressively low .247 wOBA, .200 average, and .245 OBP when deploying it. In turn, Eaton has managed a .226 average and .273 wOBA versus the four-seam, with a pair of doubles ranking as his only extra-base hits against the pitch.

Stack To Fade

Tigers vs. KCR (RHP Brad Keller)

The Tigers entered Saturday’s action with a .295 wOBA and 26.9 percent strikeout rate overall. They own a mediocre .248 average and .301 wOBA at Comerica Park specifically. The Tigers’ home stadium also checks in with a bottom-half run factor (1.046). Keller already turned in a road quality start against Detroit this season as well. He limited the Tigers to three earned runs on five hits and three walks on April 7 in Comerica.

The Tigers’ projected starting nine Sunday is a combined 6-for-24 against Keller with no home runs. And after scoring three runs Saturday, Detroit has managed just 13 overall in its last five games. Finally, consider Detroit is seriously lacking in firepower overall. No Tiger has more than three home runs, and Detroit ranks last in the Majors with just 21 round trippers entering Saturday’s action.

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