NBA Advanced Plays Analysis 1/26

Written By PlayPicks Staff on January 26, 2015 - Last Updated on June 27, 2018
NBA Adva

Due to the terrible weather in the Northeast part of the country, two games have already been postponed. Therefore, we are down to five games tonight. Portland vs. Brooklyn and New York vs. Sacramento will not be playing. As per usual, I’ll go over some NBA Advanced plays for tonight’s games below.

 

Point Guards

 

Tonight there are a handful of studs I’d consider at point guard. Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul, Mike Conley, and Ty Lawson are all in play. Westbrook obviously brings the highest upside of the four; however, he is also the most expensive.  Chris Paul is my play tonight. The Clippers game has the highest over under and he already torched the Nuggets for 51.8 fantasy points on DraftKings the only game he’s played against them. Michael Carter-Williams has been ruled out for tonight’s game and Larry Drew will get the start. I’m skeptical about Drew since he hasn’t done much to warrant a start. Plus you have Dante Exum who has played well in recent games for just $100 more. Exum becomes my value play at the point guard position tonight now that Langston Galloway isn’t playing. The Celtics are allowing 53 fantasy points per game to point guards in their last five games on DraftKings and 43 fantasy points per game on FanDuel. He should easily hit value at his low salary. Another point guard who’s relatively cheap and has been playing well recently is Elfrid Payton. It’s not the best matchup for Payton, but $5500 on DraftKings is a good price to pay. On Fanduel he’s $6000 and Mo Williams is $5800, so I’d prefer playing Payton on DraftKings.

 

Shooting Guards

 

Tyreke Evans will start again at point guard tonight but is still a shooting guard on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He has done a good job filling in for Jrue Holiday. Evans has scored more than 40 fantasy points on DraftKings and more than 37 fantasy points on Fanduel in four of the last seven games. Victor Oladipo is also an option tonight as the Grizzlies don’t defend well against shooting guards. He comes at $1400 less than Evans, but doesn’t bring the consistency and floor that Evans does. However, I’d probably just pay for Evans or go with one of the cheaper guards. If you’re looking for some more economical options, then Eric Gordon and Evan Turner are all solid options. They are all below $6000 and have played really well in recent games. Gordon has scored over his yearly average in fantasy points in eight of his last ten games. He also has a great matchup against the Sixers who are just awful on defense. They allow 52.5 fantasy points per game to shooting guards on DraftKings and 45.1 fantasy points per game on Fan Duel. Turner has filled up the stat sheets in the last four games. He’s grabbing boards, scoring 10+ points, getting steals, and also providing assists. That’s transitioning to fantasy points. J.J. Redick and Avery Bradley can also be sprinkled into some lineups tonight. Redick gets the minutes, has a good matchup, and is playing in the game with the highest over/under of the evening. I’ll take that at a cheap price. Not to mention, he’s been consistently providing some solid fantasy points in the last four games. Bradley has been more hit or miss and is dealing with a jammed thumb, but if he gets the start tonight, he can be an interesting tournament play because he can pop off for 30+ fantasy points on any given night.

 

Small Forward

 

Kevin Durant is now ruled out so get him out of your lineups. Gordon Hayward and Andrew Wiggins are both in play tonight although Wiggins player props were sagging before being pulled with the Durant news. Something to note.  Hayward has put together two consecutive big games and can easily make it three tonight. The Celtics have struggled against small forwards in the last 10 games. They’ve allowed 40.6 fantasy points per game on DraftKings and 35.7 on FanDuel in those games. Wiggins has a good matchup against the Thunder and will likely be chasing points tonight. The last time he faced the Thunder he scored a tad over 30 fantasy points on DraftKings. The issue with Wiggins is he plays much better at home than on the road, but wasn’t too shabby on his four game road trip last week. I’d roll him in some tournaments because of the upside he brings to the table. Jeff Green is also a player to consider tonight. He comes at a much cheaper price and has been fairly decent in Memphis. I’d rather play him in tournaments because he has some off nights and hasn’t established a high floor just yet in his new role. A really cheap option that can be thrown into some lineups tonight is Joe Ingles. He’s expected to get another start tonight and has crushed value in the last two games. He’s played more than 30 minutes in each of the last two games and has scored more than 20 fantasy points in each of those games on both sites. All he needs is 22 fantasy points on FanDuel and 19 fantasy points on DraftKings to hit value. That’s not out of reach for him.

 

Power Forwards

 

There’s Anthony Davis and then there’s everyone else. Like most other night’s I’m finding myself paying up for power forwards and point guards tonight. Davis comes at a high price, but he has such a high ceiling and insanely high floor. He has scored more than 50 fantasy points on DraftKings in five of his last seven games. He plays the Sixers tonight which as I’ve mentioned before, are the pits on defense. Another incentive for tonight is that he plays at home and somehow tends to get some extra boards and assists due to a friendly hometown stats keeper. Blake Griffin and Zach Randolph are also great options if you’re not interested in dishing out the money for Davis. Both of them have good matchups and have been playing extremely well as of late. Serge Ibaka is a sneaky tournament play tonight. It’s a favorable matchup and he’s put together some solid outings in recent games. The concern is that he tends to have off night’s as well and his off nights can be south of 20 fantasy points. Jared Sullinger and Thaddeus Young are two power forwards I’m considering tonight as well. Both have played above expectations in recent games and both have decent matchups. Young is cheaper and has scored more than 30 fantasy points on DraftKings in five of the last six games, so I’d roll with him over Sullinger. Now, if you’re looking for the cheap option, take a look at Brandon Bass. He’s been getting the starts and playing 30+ minutes in the last three games. He’s also scored more than 20 fantasy points in each of those games on both sites. His salary is less than $5000 on each site, so he should have no trouble hitting and/or exceeding value yet again.

 

Centers

 

With the Kings game canceled, nobody has to ponder whether paying for DeMarcus Cousin is a good idea or not. Nikola Vucevic, Marc Gasol, and DeAndre Jordan are the top options tonight. Gasol has the best matchup of the three. He takes on the Magic which allow 48.4 fantasy points per game to centers on FanDuel, but have allowed 60.9 in their last five games. On DraftKings, the Magic yield 51.5 fantasy points per game for the season, but 70.2 fantasy points per game in their last five. I think it’s a no brainer to have Gasol in your lineups. Jordan also has a great matchup and I really like him in tournaments tonight. The last time he played the Nuggets he scored more fantasy points than his season average on both sites. He also has four 40+ fantasy point performances in four of the last six games on DraftKings. One guy I’m eyeing at a low price at this position is Omer Asik. He’s fewer than $4800 on both sites tonight. He has a great matchup against the Sixers and has double digit rebounds in six of the last eight games. He also will give you an occasional double-double. The last time he faced the Sixers he grabbed 14 boards. If you decide to roll with him, he can provide you some salary cushion and a floor of about 20 fantasy points.

 

Good luck to all tonight!

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