NBA Advanced Plays Analysis 1/23

Written By PlayPicks Staff on January 23, 2015 - Last Updated on June 27, 2018
NBA Adva

We have 11 games tonight and some really nice high Over/Unders with manageable spreads to look at. Seven of the eleven have totals over 200 and there’s two games with totals at or very near 220. Of those games the only one with a blowout spread over 10 points is the GS game and all those guys can still make value since they have been hanging 120 spots on people lately. The Houston/Phoenix game has a 220 O/U with a 2 point spread so fade that one at your own risk.

 

We had a good showing Wednesday on FD and Aces. Dk was a rough night as the only play was a shot at the FBWC Q and that fell flat. On Aces we won all our 50/50s but missed in the $22 Q for $109 tickets with this line up. It would have been a rougher night had we not done well on FD cashing all our 50/50s there and sneaking into the back of some GPPs with this one. I was not around to switch out Frye when Tobias was announced as in, so that was a major blow to what would have been a better evening. It happens sometimes and you can not be mad about it. Let’s take a look at tonight’s slate with a lot of interesting tourney’s being offered. A Ticket to the live final on Aces, a chance to win super bowl tickets or a FBWC seat on DK, and a lot of cash and Q’s for a MEGA baller on FD. Here’s what the sheets are pointing out:

 

Point Guard

 

I don’t really love any of the high end options today and the sheets are only reinforcing those beliefs. PG will not be a spot I pay up for and instead I will be going mid to lower tier on FD and DK especially. Derrick Rose is one of those guys I really like. He threw down the guantlet and challenged his struggling team and has looked like the guy we remember from a few years ago since. Across the board he is not priced like an elite option, but he has produced like one over the last few games. He is my top choice tonight as I think he even manages to outproduce the projections we have him at.

 

For my second PG on sites I need one I will be choosing amongst three lower tier options I think can put up a nice big number. Tops on that list is Isaiah Thomas.  He plays in the highest O/U game on the day and if you watched the last game, when he is in he attacks nonstop. His price is still depressed, but his usage when he is on the floor is through the roof, so he would be my favorite of the lower priced guys.

 

If you wanted to go even lower on FD and DK for that matter I like what Elfrid Payton has done lately and Jeremy Lin with no Price has made value more often as well. I do not love the upside ceiling for either, but both make sense as a salary relief option given the low low prices we see on them.

 

On the real cheap end the Knicks Langston Galloway is in play again. Across all three sites he needs about 25 points to make value and has 30+ in his last two. At his price another 30 point game is 6-8 times value depending on the site and you can not pass that up. He is a definite guy to consider on every roster, cash or  GPP on all 3 sites.

 

With Ty Lawson hungover, Jameer Nelson draws the start and also becomes an elite  value play.
 


 

Shooting Guard

 

Klay Thompson is my target here tonight. He is showing up as elite value across the board on all sites today. The O/U in that game is really high and Klay should be able to do what he wants against McLemore and shoot over the top of him at will. His DvP # and recent performances are all green as well so there’s nothing holding me back from rolling him out there tonight.

 

Tyreke Evans still seems a little underpriced on FD so I would use him there, but probably only there. His Teammate Eric Gordon looks like an even better play for upside and salary relief at a much lower price and he would be in play for me as a salary saver across the board. He had a 40+ DK point game last out, so he can easily smash through his value threshold without even matching that performance tonight.

 

Another cheaper option I like across all sites is Evan Turner. Fresh off his game winner last out, he has been putting up decent numbers and is still cheap. He has a great floor for cash games and can play big today in GPPs as well. The last guy I want to mention is mostly a good value only on Aces, but Eric Bledsoe is a guy I think is safe to roll out. Highest O/U game and James Harden defense is enough by itself to make me like him, and he is fresh off a DK 60 point game himself, so he is in play.

 

Small Forward

 

This is an ugly spot today. The high end options are always in play if you can afford them like Durant and LBJ, but they are more GPP for me as they do not show high probability of making it to value based off the projections. The guys who do include Chandler Parsons who is great value across all sites. He has been playing well and taking a bigger role in that offense lately and given the expected score in that one I think he has a good chance for a big game today. I like him on FD and DK more and would probably shy away on Aces. As far as other high end options go, I don’t hate Andrew Wiggins on FD, I don’t hate Carmelo Anthony on DK while both are solid on Aces.

 

Moving down a tier, I think guys like Corey Brewer and Robert Covington are very interesting as well. Both are more GPP then cash for me as they could lose minutes here or there to other guys in the rotation, but both have produced recently and at worst should get the first shot and the most run. I say GPP mostly on these two cause they could have 35 points or 15 and the latter would really be hard to make up in a cash game. The GPP upside and probable lower ownership on both do make them really solid plays though. I would go Covington more on FD and Aces and take advantage of Brewer’s dirt cheap price on DK.

 

Power Forward

 

There’s a lot of those mid tier guys I really like tonight on FD and DK. Jared Sullinger is one of the top ones for me. Nurkic hurt his back yesterday and Faried has a bad case of the flu. The Nuggets might be forced to roll JJ Hickson (Another good PF option today) and maybe a Wilson Chandler at the 4 for parts of that game. If the Nuggets do go small and the Celtics counter, then we may see some Brandon Bass and Sully at the ? spots together or separate and that should uptick the rebounds slightly for one or both. Due to the injuries expected there, I would be comfortable rolling any of those three out from that game today.

 

Two other mid tier options are Thad Young and Amir Johnson. Both guys are very solid and playing better recently. Both are very low priced and both see a good deal of minutes. I would have no problem rolling out either of them tonight if I was saving money to fit in a Lebron or Durant or some other star of that ilk. Amir’s price is best exploited on DK and Thad is more a FD or Aces play, so deploy them there for some exposure.

 

Center

 

Chris Bosh is in a very low O/U game today, but again the Heat are without Whiteside and probably Deng so he will need to do more scoring and rebounding tonight. The low total there will scare some away, but his low price compared to others make him a great option across all 3 sites. I know people despise rosterng Bosh sometimes, but that may work out to your advantage tonight to get a potential high scorer at the position with a good shot to be the top value option there at a discounted price. Remember he is listed at PF now on FD unless they changed it again, so you may have to look elsewhere for your plays there.

 

Jordan Hill is back to playing over 30 minutes and back to being the double double machine he was early in the season. The Lakers will need him to play well tonight and I think he has another solid game in him. His upside is rarely seen as he does not hang a 40 or 50 spot up often, but he is solid for cash at a low price and a good floor.

 

The Cheap guy I may roll on FD and DK if needed is Omer Asik. He is another guy with a low ceiling, but his low price and high rebounding rate give him a solid floor. He probably will not be the guy who wins you a GPP, but he is the guy who allows you to roster the high priced high upside guys that will and not hurt you in the process. If you really want to pay up at center, guys like Horford, Cousins, and Vucevic are all good options and have shown some huge ceilings, but on a APP (Average points per $$) basis I think they are all going to fall a little short tonight. If you can pick the one who doesn’t I think it will give you a huge leg up in your GPPs.

 

One Last Thought:

 

You may notice I used a lot of lower priced guys today and that’s just the way the pricing and numbers showed up today. I like days like this because you can roster all these guys first and have some cash left over. At that point what I like to do is say to myself, OK of all these guys who do I like the least? Once I have that answer I can take that player out and “TRADE UP” for a guy who may be more expensive and have a lower Projected points per dollar, but who will probably outscore my originally guy in raw points. I understand the adage that leaving a little money on the table helps differentiate your roster, but like that more for smaller slate evenings. On an eleven game slate like today, Thad Young might be a great value, but if you have 1800 leftover instead of keeping him with a higher APP, I would swerve to a Bosh at PF on FD and be happy doing so with a higher likelihood of a higher raw score. Same goes for other guys at a lot of these positions. Points per $$ is the metric that helps me most in cash games, but for raw scores and GPP wins you rarely do that without having a big number put up by a player with a pretty high salary. If you guess right on the high priced guy of the night, then surrounding him with these best bets for value will translate into dollars won.

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