NBA Advanced Stats Analysis 1/21

Written By PlayPicks Staff on January 21, 2015 - Last Updated on June 27, 2018
NBA Adv

We are back with a really robust 12 game NBA slate today. We have 2 games with totals over 210 and another 3 with totals over 200 so there’s a lot of points brewing in about half of them. Half of the games also have spreads of 8 or better so be cautious about who you use in those unless you think it stays closer. Some big name games are expected out and some are coming back. Lebron sickness is something to monitor as that changes a lot in the Cavs game if the flu holds him out. LaMarcus Aldridge is definitely out with his hand injury so that ticks up usage for the remaining Blazers starters as well. No Kobe is also likely and Deng and Whiteside are confirmed out for the Heat. Those are just some of what I am watching now so follow the news today as it breaks and look for ways to exploit it.

 

We had a pretty good day on Friday off the sheets. My main play was concentrated over at Aces where I had a $109 Q ticket. Turned in a nice showing finishing 9/200 and taking home some extra ammo to keep trying for the live final. Our 50/50s all cashed as well and here is the line up I went with.

 

If you need help reading our Sheets please check out the primer article here first and then take a look at the Projections after reading the analysis. Remember we update this throughout the day based on injury news and player props, so it is a fluid document subject to changes and updates. NBA DFS requires you to be available and make quick decisions based on late breaking news so we try to arm you with the most up to date stuff we have available at the time. Using these projections in conjunction with some late breaking value plays has proven to work for us and should be how you attack tonight’s slate as well. Here’s what we notice off the sheets.

 

Point Guard

 

At the top end today I am only really looking at one guy and that is Damian Lilliard. With no LMA it’s going to be the Lilliard show and in a high O/U game with a hot pace expected against the Suns that could mean a big fantasy night. Lilliard was putting up video game numbers with out LMA a few weeks back, so I would be fine rolling him out tonight. On Aces he is an elite value and on FD he is the top expensive option. He is pricier on DK so that may be the one place I do try to fade or limit exposure to him, but only because of his price. I expect him to have a huge game today and would be fine rolling him out all over.

 

The mid to lower tier is where I will be using a few guys tonight. The one I like most is Jarrett Jack. Deron Williams is likely still sidelined and Jack has been phenominal in his place. On all three sites he is coming up as too cheap, so I would not hesitate to roll him out against this Kings squad tonight based off his recent performances where he is reaching 5 times + value on FD and DK and over 7 on Aces. That’s GPP winning pace for all three sites.

 

If I wanted to put another cheap guy in on FD or Aces I would look to Jeremy Lin. No Ronnie Price and no Kobe mean a much higher usage rate for Lin and more minutes as well. The added minutes and the added chances with the ball in his hand translated into a 35 DK point performance last out for a 7 times value on DK. That’s huge upside and a decent floor due to those minutes making him a safe play on FD and DK. I don’t love him as much on Aces but you can do worse with your cheap plays then his projections.

 

Shooting Guard

 

The pricing here today makes different guys worth a look on different sites so let’s break them down that way. On FD I think Tyreke Evans is too cheap. This is especially true if Anthony Davis is held out again tonight. His price over there would be over a five times return based off his performances in the last 2 if all things are equal (No Brow). I also really like three other mid range options here. Victor Oladipo with no Tobias has been doing work. He is a nice value tonight whose price is still a little low. Bradley Beal is another guy expected to be in a close high scoring game and playing a lot better recently. His fantasy scores have gone up and that’s solid. Given the probably game script he should see closer to the 35 minutes he plays in closer games and that could boost his production at a modest price. Lastly I love Wes Matthews tonight as well. Lilliard can not do it alone and with no LMA Wes was scoring more earlier in the year. To keep this game close they are going to need more points and he can help them there.

 

On DK the pricing is different and some guys benefit from that. Tyreke is too pricey but Beal, Matthews, and Especially Oladipo are in play. I would add Klay Thompson over here at the high end as well. He gets James Harden defense and a total near 220 coming home to play a team they just hung 130 points on last week while on the road. Klay can score and there’s been a few big games against Harden so avoiding foul trouble is the key for a big day from him. If you wanted to go cheap I don’t hate Nick Young, Kyle Korver, or Courtney Lee either. I think all 3 can make value today and have some GPP upside. Korver safest for cash but the other two on a good night can help you win a GPP.

 

On Aces I think there is no automatic play, but a few guys are interesting. Klay, Tyreke, and Oladipo are all solid value for a 50/50, but for GPP upside and a safe floor at a square price I would roll out Beal and/or Matthews over there. You can never afford a stud at every position, but when you can find an underpriced star in a high O/U game or a guy who should benefit from an injury to a teammate then both become worthy of inclusion.

 

Small Forward

 

No surprise here if you read this column but I am going to go Andrew Wiggins again tonight. He is still too cheap based off his new role and we just saw him hang a 50 burger up on DK. He has delivered value consistently over the last two weeks across all sites and his projected numbers are showing very green again today. That should be a high scoring game and I expect Kevin Martin to remain out so Wiggins will be asked to shoulder a heavy load again tonight.

 

Nic Batum is another guy showing up with some really nice numbers today and it plays into the last discussion about guys stepping up with no LMA. Batum has slid over to play some PF with no LMA in the past and that would be very sweet for fantasy owners as it usually translates into a few more rebounds and paint points for him. He had some monster games earlier in the season with this same scenario, so he is worthy of a look on FD and DK without a doubt. Aces he still does not score enough for me to love him, but he could be worth a play at only 4700.

 

Two other guys I will try to fit in some are Jeff Green and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. MKG has been playing well recently and filling the stat sheet across the board. His minutes may take a hit with Lance and Kemba and Al all healthy as will his usage, but his defensive and rebounding abilities at his price create a decent floor. If I wanted to save I would probably lean more towards Jeff Green who is starting to pick it up since his trade to Memphis. He has had some very solid games and his minutes are only increasing. Those would be my flyers if I needed one tonight at the position.

 

Power Forward

 

Markieff Morris gets no LMA tonight and will probably see some Batum and some Thomas Robinson defense. He has a size and stength advantage over Batum and speed advantage over T Rob, so this could be a good spot for him. He is showing as an elite value on all 3 sites and that is one of the highest O/U games today. I will have some shares of him in spots.

 

Thad Young is a sneaky good play today who will be underowned as usual. I’m not overly impressed with Dirk defense right now and Young’s price is cheap all over. His price makes him one of the best plays at PF all over tonight.

 

For Cheap options I really like Channing Frye. Neither has enormous upside but both are friendly priced and have a good shot to outperform their value equation. If you need to save and still want upside these two are the way to go.

 

Center

 

Chris Bosh is going to be my top play tonight at C. There is no Hassan Whiteside and no Deng likely so he should and will need to do a little more scoring and rebounding today. Bosh has put up really solid numbers and his recent price discount seals this play for me.

 

Jordan Hill is another very interesting option across the board. His projections are really showing kind of high, which would make him elite value on all three sites. With no Kobe I assume they are expecting more scoring out of him and that slight bump would make him a good GPP play. He has been solid cash game value all season with a pretty nice floor so this is something I will look into a lot more before I finalize my rosters. He could become an elite value play and do so at low ownership.

 

With no LMA tonight I think we see increased role for Chris Kaman as well. I have less faith in Kaman then the others, but his price is so cheap he opens up a lot of doors to some studs on FD and DK. Even on Aces those projections would put him on championship pace so he is an intriguing cost saver if you need one.

 

As always follow the late breaking news and adjust some of these numbers as it comes down. Injury creates opportunity in NBA DFS so mix and match these plays with that news and you should have a winning formula. Good luck tonight guys. Lot of money on the line across all the sites so get in on the action.

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