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Nets Betting

Welcome to the Wednesday, April 10 edition of the NBA Best Bets column. Here, I’ll strive to identify one NBA bet for tonight I feel has profit potential at DraftKings SportsbookFanDuel Sportsbook888 Sportsbook, and BetStars Sportsbook.

Depending on the circumstance, I’ll hone in on moneylines, point spreads, or projected totals. Sometimes I may even touch on multiple metrics. Then, I’ll take you on a fairly deep dive as to why.

Please note we’ll be referencing only legal, regulated sportsbook betting odds and totals here at PlayPicks. A “pick” is a wager that, as of the time of this writing, we feel confident recommending. A “lean” is a wager we favor over the other side. This play could end up on our card with the release of additional information.

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Season to Date:

ATS Leans/Picks: 51-39-1 (.567)
Moneyline: 31-9 (.775)
Over/Under: 32-16-1 (.667)

4/10/19 NBA Betting Pick:

Miami Heat (39-42) vs. Brooklyn Nets (41-40)

DraftKings Sportsbook Odds: Nets -5.5 (o/u: 218.5)
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: Nets -5.5 (o/u: 218)
888 Sportsbook Odds: Nets -5.5 (o/u: 218)
BetStars Sportsbook Odds: OTB

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The Breakdown

The final night of the NBA regular season can always be a bit of a landmine for bettors. There’s often little to play for; thus, starting rosters are filled with bench players. That can certainly lead to unpredictable outcomes. By contrast, we have a bit more certainty in Wednesday’s Heat-Nets tilt. Brooklyn has something to play for: clinching the No. 6 seed in the Eastern Conference.

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Meanwhile, Miami likely comes in emotionally and physically spent. On Tuesday, they put a 122-99 walloping on the Philadelphia 76ers in Dwyane Wade‘s final home game. Wednesday’s game will also be the Heat’s third game in four nights and their fourth in six. What’s more, the Heat were officially eliminated from postseason contention courtesy of the Pistons’ momentous fourth-quarter comeback against the Grizzlies on Tuesday.

Given the circumstances, it’s difficult to predict what kind of team Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra will roll out Wednesday. He could certainly opt to give several veterans, with Wade perhaps the most likely, the night off. The Heat rotation could well be a mish-mash of regulars and reserves. We may have seen a preview of that Tuesday. Udonis Haslem saw action for only the ninth time this season, and little-used Ryan Anderson and rookie Duncan Robinson also logged minutes.

Meanwhile, the Nets may have a couple of players sitting Wednesday as well despite their incentive for a win. Joe Harris, who’s been a lethal three-point shooter, especially at home, is listed as questionable with a sore foot. Then, DeMarre Carroll, who’s nursing a sprained wrist, is already confirmed as out for the contest. Carroll has been a valuable member of the frontcourt all season, but Brooklyn has some quality depth to withstand his absence, including Jared Dudley and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson.

When evaluating the projected total, let’s glance at the previous three matchups this season. The last two finished with modest totals of 196 and 205. And Miami played those games with much more potent lineups than we’re likely to see tonight.

By The Numbers

The Under is 21-17 (55.3 percent) in games following a Heat win this season. Then, the Under is 27-24 (52.9 percent) in the Nets’ conference games and 9-8 (52.9 percent) in games Brooklyn has played with two or three days of rest.

Finally, two of the three 2018-19 meetings between these teams finished under Wednesday’s total.

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The Final Word

As mentioned earlier, this game, along with most of the others on Wednesday’s schedule, is a wild card. However, it appears likely the Heat could be a bit listless due to the double whammy of being knocked out of playoff contention and Wade’s big night back in Miami on Tuesday. Given the extenuating circumstances at play, I see this game falling a bit short of its elevated total.

The Pick: Under 218.5