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DFS Picks

We have a six-game MLB DFS slate on Saturday, 4/6/19 beginning at 7:05 p.m EDT. Below is a list of our best pitchers, hitters, and stacks to target (Three Up) and fade (Three Down) in MLB DFS contests. Note that some of these plays are recommended for Cash and some are best reserved for GPP lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Please note the advice below is relevant for daily fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, and lots of other factors. This is important to consider when constructing a roster. Remember that more than in other sports, variance is a huge part of baseball. Even Mike Trout can go 0-for-4 on a given night, and Max Scherzer can get lit up by a weak team.

Weather can also play a huge role in MLB DFS on a nightly basis, and lineups are constantly shifting. So always, always check the starting lineups and weather reports when playing for an MLB slate. If a game gets rained out, your player gets zero points!

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Sat. Slugfest: $11 entry, $200k guaranteed (DraftKings) – $50K to 1st!
Power Alley: $44 entry, $50k guaranteed (DraftKings)- $10K to 1st!
Sat. Squeeze: $4.44 entry, $100k guaranteed (FanDuel) – $20K to 1st!
Sat. Grand Slam: $55 entry, $100K guaranteed (FanDuel)- $20K to 1st!

Three Up for April 6, 2019

Best Pitcher

Corbin Burnes vs. CHC ($8.9k DraftKings, $7.3k FanDuel)

Burnes mowed down 12 Cardinals over just five innings in his first start. Some uncharacteristic trouble keeping the ball in the park partially did him in, but his ability to miss bats was impressive. Burnes also forged a mostly stellar minor-league record before going 7-0 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over 30 relief appearances in his 2018 debut campaign.

The hard-throwing right-hander boasts a mid-90s fastball and generated a .220 wOBA, .167 BAA, and 0.79 WHIP against the 52 left-handed hitters he faced last season. That bodes well for his chances of success against a Cubs lineup that boasts potent bats such as Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, and Jason Heyward from that side of the plate. Then, Burnes was excellent at Miller Park last season as well. He posted a .229 ERA, .223 wOBA, .171 BAA and 0.86 WHIP across 19.2 home frames.

Finally, while the Cubs were solid overall versus right-handed pitching last season on the road, they also generated a 22.3 percent strikeout rate versus that handedness outside of Wrigley. Given Burnes’ ability to miss bats, I see him as a GPP play in his home park.

Other pitchers to consider: J.A. Happ (at Orioles), David Price (at Diamondbacks), Sandy Alcantara (at ATL)

Best Hitter

Cody Bellinger at COL ($5.8k DraftKings, $5k FanDuel)

Bellinger checks into Saturday’s Coors Field matchup with a .750 average over nine plate appearances against Rockies starter Jon Gray, making him a strong cash or GPP play. Bellinger has also started the season scalding hot at the plate, slashing .417/.447/.917 over his first 38 plate appearances and already racking up six home runs.

The slugging 23-year-old punished righties last season for a .278 average, along with a .423 wOBA .295 ISO, 41.2 percent hard-contact rate, and 43.5 percent extra-base-hit rate (27 out of 62 hits) when facing them on the road. He profiles well versus Gray’s trademark four-seam fastball as well, one that the right-hander allowed a .405 wOBA on when throwing last season.

Bellinger generated a .341 wOBA versus the pitch in 2018 and already sports a massive .552 wOBA against it thus far in 2019. And, Gray didn’t exactly thrive versus lefty bats in 2018, allowing a .354 wOBA, including 39 extra-base hits, a 25.8 percent line-drive rate, and a 39.8 percent hard-contact rate to that handedness.

Other hitters to consider: Christian Yelich, Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Aaron Judge, Mitch Moreland, Corey Seager, Justin Turner

Best Stack

Dodgers vs. Rockies (RHP Jon Gray) 

Coors Field always sets up as an excellent environment to deploy a stack. It only gets juicier considering the red-hot-hitting Dodgers and the plethora of bats they have to attack Jon Gray and the Rockies’ relievers. Multiple L.A. hitters have enjoyed plenty of career success against Gray, including Max Muncy (.600 average), A.J. Pollock (.364 average), Corey Seager (.385 average), Justin Turner (.300 average), and Chris Taylor (.333 average).

Bellinger, Muncy, and Seager are potent lefty bats poised to take advantage of the .354 wOBA, 17 home runs, 1.77 HR/9, 25.8 percent line-drive rate, and 39.8 percent hard-contact rate Gray surrendered to left-handed hitters last season. Then, Gray allowed a .265 average and .335 wOBA at Coors last season. And no team has opened the season hotter than Los Angeles. They’re averaging just over 8.0 runs per game over their first eight contests.

Red Sox vs. ARI (RHP Luke Weaver)

The D-Backs grabbed headlines Friday by scoring 15 runs, but somewhat under the radar is the fact Boston also equaled a season high with eight runs by teeing off late against one of Arizona’s several vulnerable relievers in Matt Koch. The challenge gets tougher for the D-Backs against David Price on Saturday, but Boston gets a chance to carry over their improving bats versus Luke Weaver.

Weaver was roughed up for five runs (four earned) on six hits and two walks over 4.1 innings against the Dodgers in his first start of the season last Sunday. Then, he struggled versus left-handed hitters last season, allowing them a .288 average, .363 wOBA, 4.88 xFIP, 4.33 BB/9, 23.2 percent line-drive rate, and 35.1 percent hard contact rate. The Red Sox offer up several left-handed bats capable of exploiting that weakness: Mitch Moreland, Rafael Devers, and Andrew Benintendi.

Weaver also allowed a .341 wOBA on his four-seam fastball last season, while Boston has plenty of bats of either handedness that are highly proficient against the pitch. That includes J.D. Martinez (.477 wOBA), Mookie Betts (.451 wOBA), and Benintendi (.389 wOBA) leading the way. And finally, the vulnerability of the D-Backs bullpen is worth noting. Once Weaver exits, Boston will take aim at an Arizona relief corps that’s already worked 30.2 innings this season over eight games.

Other stacks to consider: Rockies (vs. Dodgers), Yankees (at Orioles) 


Three Down for April 6, 2019

Pitcher To Fade

Dylan Bundy vs. NYK ($6.9k DraftKings, $6.3k FanDuel)

Bundy worked up to a whopping 93 pitches through just 3.2 innings in his first start of the season. That was against the Yankees last Sunday, leading to an early exit. The right-hander issued five walks while trying to tip-toe around New York’s potent lineup. Given his history against the Bronx Bombers, more trouble is likely Saturday.

Bundy now owns a 2-5 record, 6.18 ERA, .282 BAA, and has allowed eight homers to the Yankees over nine appearances (seven starts). The 26-year-old also frequently ran into trouble at his home field of Camden Yards a year ago. He allowed a 5.31 ERA, 22 home runs, and a 5.02 FIP over 96.2 innings at Camden. The Yankees touched up Bundy for nine earned runs in two cracks at him in Baltimore’s home park last season, a sample that included a pair of homers.

With potent bats from both sides of the plate and Bundy demonstrating weakness against either handedness at home in 2018 (.392 wOBA versus left-handed hitters, .325 wOBA against right-handed hitters), the likes of Gleyber Torres, Aaron Judge, Brett Gardner, Gary Sanchez, and Luke Voit could all give him grief.

Hitter To Fade

Trey Mancini vs. NYK ($4k DraftKings, $3.3k FanDuel)

Mancini has opened the season in fine fashion, but he runs into his personal Kryptonite on Saturday. The outfielder owns a middling .227/.292/.364 line over 24 career plate appearances versus J.A. Happ, a sample that includes eight strikeouts. Four of his hits in that span have been singles. Mancini’s struggles against the veteran southpaw aren’t exactly surprising, given his career-long issues against left-handers.

The Orioles outfielder posted a .225 average, 23.9 percent strikeout rate, .286 wOBA, and anemic 23.4 percent hard-contact rate against southpaws last season. What’s more, he owns a 24.1 percent strikeout rate versus that handedness in his career, along with a middling 23.8 percent flyball rate and elevated 57.5 percent groundball rate. Happ held right-handed hitters to a .207 average and .275 wOBA in 2018, while generating an impressive 27.7 percent strikeout rate against them.

Stack To Fade

Orioles vs. NYY (LHP J.A. Happ)

Happ uncharacteristically ran into trouble against the Orioles in his first start of the season. However, the veteran southpaw has enjoyed success more often than not against Baltimore. Happ also pitched well on the road in 2018, including in Camden Yards. Happ forged a 2-0 record, 2.25 ERA, and an 18:4 K:BB in Baltimore’s home park last season. And his 2.61 road ERA and .204 BAA over 69 road frames were markedly better than his respective 4.31 and .237 figures in those categories at Yankee Stadium.

Then, the O’s posted an AL-low .288 wOBA and -38.4 wRAA versus lefties last season while striking out at a 22.9 percent clip. Additionally, current Orioles players who have faced Happ previously have a .191/.238/.376 line across 141 at-bats versus the 36-year-old left-hander, furthering his strong case. The fact he’s opposing Dylan Bundy also raises Happ’s chances of a win Saturday.

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