The Final Four is set for Minneapolis‘ U.S. Bank Stadium with the national semifinals on Saturday, April 6. The championship game follows on Monday, April 8. After an exceptional Elite Eight that featured four close contests and thrilling finishes, we’re left with No. 2 seed Michigan State vs. No. 3 Texas Tech and No. 1 Virginia vs. No. 5 Auburn.
Final Four betting lines
|(2) Michigan State vs. (3) Texas Tech||Michigan St. -3||132.5||Michigan St. -159|
Texas Tech +130
|(1) Virginia vs. (5) Auburn||Virginia -6||131||Virginia -265|
Our Sweet Sixteen props and best bets fared quite well, and while these Final Four games offer just two sides and totals to bet on, there are various props available at DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook to wager on during the Final Four.
Five Best Bets in the Final Four
1. Virginia (-5.5) over Auburn
This is the end of the line for the Auburn Tigers, who are making their first-ever Final Four appearance. The Tigers face an elite Virginia Cavaliers defense and do so without their most versatile player Chuma Okeke, who suffered an ACL injury in the Sweet Sixteen victory over North Carolina.
The talented Tigers guards will be limited by Virginia’s top-five efficiency defense, which is especially strong along the perimeter. Kyle Guy got untracked in the Elite Eight overtime win over Purdue, and he led the ACC in made 3-pointers and tied for league-best long range shooting at better than 46%. De’Andre Hunter is a potential pro, an and point guard Ty Jerome can score and distribute. He’s the ACC assist leader and leads a Cavs team in fewest turnovers in the country. Virginia shut down up-tempo and high-scoring North Carolina this season and held all but two teams (other than Duke) to fewer than 70 points. Virginia will tame the Tigers with a convincing win.
2. Virginia team total OVER 68.5
While the Cavs defense is elite, their offense ranks No. 2 in adjusted efficiency, and their strong shooters face an Auburn defense that is average in both 2-point and 3-point shooting percentage and gives up many offensive rebounds. Virginia should have no problem hitting 70 or more points.
3. Team to score 10 points first, Virginia (-125)
Continuing the theme of Virginia’s expected dominance, here’s a chance to cash in on a prop in the early part of the game. Auburn is likely to turn the ball over while adjusting to Virginia’s suffocating defense. Virginia now faces a softer defense than Oklahoma, Oregon, or Purdue presented in their three most recent tournament games.
4. Michigan State vs. Texas Tech: Largest lead of the game by either team 12.5 – UNDER (-110)
This game should match the excitement and entertainment of the Elite Eight contests. These two defensive dominators in Texas Tech (1st) and Michigan State (4th) also boast strong shooters and excellent leaders at point guard. I don’t see either team separating too much in a close contest.
5. Michigan State Moneyline (-150)
This is a hedge play if you bet our Sweet Sixteen future bet on Texas Tech (23 to 1) to win the national championship. Texas Tech is now 4 to 1 to win the title, and a $100 bet to win $2,300 can now be played back a bit on the Michigan State moneyline. You can lock in a profit betting Michigan State $450 to win $300, and if Texas Tech wins again, have another hedge play in the national championship to secure a profit.
Of course, riding Texas Tech the entire way is what Red Raiders fans and bettors would do! I see a close contest, and either Michigan State or Texas Tech will be a great championship opponent for our other projected semifinal winner in Virginia.