NBA DFS

The NBA DFS season rolls on Friday, 3/29/19, and we’ve got our best picks for your DraftKings and FanDuel lineups tonight.

Please note the advice below is relevant for daily fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, and lots of other factors. This is important to consider when constructing a roster.

Injuries play a huge role in NBA DFS on a nightly basis and players are always candidates to rest towards the end of the regular season. Value plays on the various daily fantasy sites can arise at a moment’s notice, so always, always check the starting lineups and injury news right before tipoff.

The Full Roster contests on FanDuel include a new scoring system in which the lowest score of the nine selected players is dropped, allowing users to take more risks with a punt play or two. Then, DraftKings has brought back its late swap for NBA contests.

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3/29/19 NBA DFS TOURNAMENT PICKS

Fadeaway: $15 entry, $250k guaranteed (DraftKings) – $50,000 to 1st!
Four Point Play: $4 entry, $50k guaranteed (DraftKings)
Shot: $15 entry, $200k guaranteed (FanDuel) – $50,000 to 1st!
Shot: $5.55 entry, $30k guaranteed (FanDuel)

NBA DFS Top Plays for March 29, 2019

Best Guards for March 29, 2019

Damian Lillard @ ATL ($10.1k DraftKings, $10.9k FanDuel)

Damian Lillard may well garner low ownership tonight after dropping an 11-point dud in a blowout win over Chicago on Wednesday. That said, the Blazers PG is in line to erupt if the Hawks keep tonight’s game close. Atlanta (+3) plays at the fastest pace in the league and allows the most PPG (118.2), APG (27), and SPG (10.1) as a result. They also yield a league-high 12.9 3PTM per game when playing at home. That is why Lillard has a projection of 54.4 DraftKings points with the second-highest per-dollar rating on the slate according to FantasyLabs.

Then, Lillard is shooting 39% from three with averages of 27 PPG and 8.7 APG this month. With C.J. McCollum (knee) and Jusuf Nurkic (leg) out, Lillard will be forced to take on an even bigger role. He sees an enormous 10.8% rise in usage rate (to 39.8%) and averages 1.57 FPs per minute (0.29 increase) when his co-stars are off the floor this season. “Dame D.O.L.L.A.” used 31.2% of possessions when he faced the Hawks last season and should find the sledding even easier this year against diminutive rookie Trae Young.

Trae Young vs. POR ($8.3k DraftKings, $8.7k FanDuel)

Stacking tonight’s game in Atlanta, which has been assigned a 229.5-point Over/Under, is as easy as paying up for the two stud PGs on each side. Neither is a good defender, and Damian Lillard will likely be exhausted from his increased responsibilities on the offensive end. Portland allows the most PPG (22.27) to opposing PGs this season, and Trae Young is averaging 25.8 PPG with a 31.1% usage rate since the ASB.

He dropped 30 points and 8 assists on efficient 11-for-15 FG shooting in a previous meeting with the Blazers and is going to be gunning even more now while making a late push for Rookie of the Year. Young sees a notable 3.9% increase in usage rate (to 30.3%) when the Hawks play at home. He’s also produced a double-double in 10 of his last 13 home games.

Marcus Smart vs. IND ($4.8k DraftKings, $5.5k FanDuel)

While the Celtics (-7.5) expect Kyrie Irving back tonight, Marcus Smart will remain a fixture of this mercurial team. He’s been the one driving positive force amid Boston’s disappointing season and will look to spark the home crowd in a matchup with huge playoff implications. The Pacers lead the NBA in PPG allowed (104) but are 7-10 and coughing up 107.7 PPG since the ASB. Boston also tagged Indy for a season-high 135 points in January. Smart took a backseat in that offensive explosion but has been a much bigger part of the offense lately with averages of 11.8 PPG and 4.2 APG on 50% FG shooting this month. Indy ranks 23rd in DvP against PGs over the last 14 days and allows 108.8 PPG along with 25.3 APG and 7.7 SPG when playing on the road.

Other guards to consider: Kemba Walker, Steph Curry, Andrew Wiggins, Jamal Murray, Rajon Rondo, Wesley Matthews, Seth Curry

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Best Forwards for March 29, 2019

Paul George vs. DEN ($9.7k DraftKings, $10.4k FanDuel)

Oklahoma City (-4.5) host a Nuggets team tonight that is playing their second road game in as many nights and sixth game in eight days. Denver is 9-1 on the second half of B2B sets, so tonight’s game should be competitive. It should also allow for plenty of late-game heroics from Russell Westbrook and Paul George.

After missing three games with a sore shoulder, George has struggled a bit. But he’s still averaging 28.6 PPG, 8 RPG, and 3.8 APG on a 30.7% usage rate over his last eight appearances. George is putting up 27 PPG, 8 RPG, and 4 APG over three meetings with Denver this season and is 9-for-26 (34.6%) from three in those contests. The Nuggets cough up 109.4 PPG and 11.4 3PTM per game on the road. Meanwhile, George is shooting an impressive 42.6% from beyond the arc in home games. While he’s technically a game-time decision with that sore shoulder, PG should be all-systems-go if active. If he happens to sit, pivot to Westbrook in a juicy matchup.

Domantas Sabonis @ BOS ($6.2k DraftKings, $6.8k FanDuel)

Both Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis are in play tonight as GPP options against the struggling Celtics. Al Horford (knee) is likely to play on the front end of tonight’s B2B set, but he managed only 27 minutes on Tuesday after missing consecutive games and is clearly not 100 percent at this point. And remember Sabonis will get to work against Boston’s second unit. He might draw Daniel Theis, Greg Monroe, or the lumbering Aron Baynes in that scenario.

Regardless, no defender has stopped the second generation NBA star lately. Sabonis is averaging 14.4 PPG, 9.8 RPG, and 3.3 APG with a 25.9% usage rate since the ASB. He’s arguably been Indy’s best player since Victor Oladipo (quad) was lost for the season and deserves more playing time due to his efficiency. We’ll see if Pacers coach Nate McMillan is willing to stick with Sabonis down the stretch of a huge game tonight. The folks at FantasyLabs certainly believe in Sabonis, who has the second-highest per-dollar rating amongst forwards.

Al-Farouq Aminu @ ATL ($4.7k DraftKings, $5.5k FanDuel)

A strategy of stacking Lillard and Young along with various value plays from the Blazers roster could pay off big tonight. Portland’s starters didn’t see a full slate of run in their first game following Jusuf Nurkic’s horrific injury, so it remains to be seen how exactly roles will shake out. Al-Farouq Aminu was already starting at SF and will likely take on a bigger role as a scorer and rebounder to serve as a solid Cash play. Tournament options from the Blazers roster include Seth Curry, Evan Turner, Zach Collins, and new starting center Enes Kanter.

But back to Aminu, who averages 0.10 more FPs per minute when Nurkic and McCollum are off the floor this season. The lengthy forward is averaging 12.4 PPG and 6.4 RPG at a clip of 0.95 FPs per minute over his last five appearances. And he has a good chance to at least meet value against a fast-paced Atlanta team. Aminu posted 17 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 steals over 30 minutes the last time he faced the Hawks.

Other forwards to consider: LeBron James, John Collins, Jayson Tatum, Bojan Bogdanovic, Jerami Grant, Miles Bridges, Dario Saric, Nic Batum, Zach Collins, Evan Turner 

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Best Centers for March 29, 2019

Karl-Anthony Towns vs. GSW ($10.5k DraftKings, $11.6k FanDuel)

Karl-Anthony Towns had a relatively quiet game on Tuesday and still met value on DraftKings with 24 points, 13 rebounds, and 3 assists. That showcases his excellent floor-ceiling combination, which is much higher in a home tilt against the defending champion Warriors. Golden State yields the most RPG (19.3) and third-most FPPG (51.08) to centers over the last 14 days. Those numbers are partially due to Towns roasted them for 26 points and 21 rebounds on March 19.

Now, the Dubs have DeMarcus Cousins back in the lineup, but he’s clearly a step slower coming off an Achilles tear. Towns has avoided going head-to-head with “Boogie” in all three matchups with the Warriors so far this season. If all goes well, that should motivate him to come out strong against his fellow Kentucky graduate. With a 34% usage rate and 124 offensive rating since the ASB, Towns has become one of the most secure plays in DFS.

JaVale McGee vs. CHA ($7.0k DraftKings, $8.0k FanDuel)

The Lakers used JaVale McGee sparingly throughout most of the season but have let the gangly big man loose since falling out of playoff contention. McGee is averaging 17.7 PPG, 13.4 RPG, and 3.3 BPG over his last seven appearances. This is hardly surprising considering he owns per 36-minute averages of 19.2 points, 12 rebounds, and 3.3 blocks on the season. His price tag has risen along with his playing time, but McGee has still become a locked-in Cash play as the center in the Lakers’ fast-paced system. Tonight he’ll face a Hornets team that’s giving up the sixth-most RPG (15.91) and eighth-most PPG (21.5) to centers over the last 14 days. Moreover, Charlotte will once again be without starting big man Cody Zeller (leg). McGee dropped 19 points in 18 minutes the last time he faced Charlotte. He should provide great per-minute returns with more run tonight.

Other centers to consider: Nikola Jokic, DeMarcus Cousins, Al Horford, Enes Kanter

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