NBA DFS

The NBA DFS season rolls on Thursday, 3/28/19, and we’ve got our best picks for your DraftKings and FanDuel lineups tonight.

Please note the advice below is relevant for daily fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, and lots of other factors. This is important to consider when constructing a roster.

Injuries play a huge role in NBA DFS on a nightly basis and players are always candidates to rest towards the end of the regular season. Value plays on the various daily fantasy sites can arise at a moment’s notice, so always, always check the starting lineups and injury news right before tipoff.

The Full Roster contests on FanDuel include a new scoring system in which the lowest score of the nine selected players is dropped, allowing users to take more risks with a punt play or two. Then, DraftKings has brought back its late swap for NBA contests.

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3/28/19 NBA DFS TOURNAMENT PICKS

Fadeaway: $15 entry, $250k guaranteed (DraftKings) – $50,000 to 1st!
Four Point Play: $4 entry, $50k guaranteed (DraftKings)
Shot: $9.99 entry, $200k guaranteed (FanDuel) – $50,000 to 1st!
Shot: $5.55 entry, $25k guaranteed (FanDuel)

NBA DFS Top Plays for March 28, 2019

Best Guards for March 28, 2019

Luka Doncic @ MIA ($8.4k DraftKings, $9.8k FanDuel)

Matchup be damned, Luka Doncic is badly under priced on DraftKings tonight. He appears motivated to counter Trae Young in the final furlongs of the Rookie of the Year race, leading to consecutive triple doubles from the young phenom. Doncic is simply doing everything for the shorthanded Mavs with a 35.9% usage rate, 37.8% assist rate, and 18.8% rebounding rate over 14 appearances since the ASB. He posted a 34.2% usage rate and 48.3% assist rate to come up just shy of a triple double with 18 points, 12 rebounds, and 9 assists in a loss to Miami last month. The fact that Doncic played 35 minutes on Tuesday is encouraging, but he’s averaging 1.69 DK points per minute over his last five outings and is fully capable of exceeding value in shorter minutes. He has a ceiling of 61.7 DK points with the potential for 5.4x salary returns on that site according to models on FantasyLabs.

Lou Williams @ MIL ($7.5k DraftKings, $7.3k FanDuel)

While the Bucks have a great defense, Lou Williams is a tough shot maker. The ageless Sixth Man is averaging 23.6 PPG with a 34.7% usage rate over the last two months and has led the Clippers to a 10-1 record over their last 11 games. Milwaukee scores a whopping 119.6 PPG at home and the Clips are scoring 119.8 PPG during their hot streak, so taking the Over (232.5 points) makes sense. Sweet Lou has been lights out with shooting splits of .381/.431/.890 on the road this season and continues to thrive when the Clippers need his offense most. Patrick Beverley (hip) is questionable and Landry Shamet (ankle) unlikely, further securing Lou’s role as the leader of the Clippers backcourt. Garrett Temple could thrive as a value if either of those guards is ruled out.

Ian Clark vs. SAC ($3.7k DraftKings, $4.5k FanDuel)

The already shorthanded Pelicans are going to be missing backup PG Frank Jackson (concussion) tonight in addition to Jrue Holiday (abdomen) and E’Twaun Moore (thigh). Elfrid Payton is a bit pricey given his skill set and he might have trouble creating against De’Aaron Fox, but Ian Clark draws a juicy matchup against the Kings shoddy wing defense. The Kings are coughing up the most PPG (24.02) to SGs this season and is a fantasy-friendly matchup for slashers like Clark because they play at the second-fastest pace in the league. Clark hasn’t had too many opportunities to log big minutes with New Orleans, but he averages 14.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 3.1 assists per 36 minutes throughout his career and owns a 23.2% usage rate when Jackson, Holiday, Moore, and Anthony Davis are off the floor. The Pelicans will also offer solid values at forward including Stanley Johnson and Cheick Diallo.

Other guards to consider: D’Angelo Russell, Kyle Lowry, De’Aaron Fox, Eric Bledsoe, Collin Sexton, Dwyane Wade, Emmanuel Mudiay, D.J. Augustin, Reggie Jackson, Danny Green, Garrett Temple

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Best Forwards for March 28, 2019

Ben Simmons vs. BKN ($8.3k DraftKings, $9.8k FanDuel)

As noted in Tuesday’s breakdown, Joel Embiid has seen a slight dip in usage and Ben Simmons is becoming more aggressive for Philly lately. Simmons is averaging 1.31 FPs per minute at home, where the Sixers average 117.8 PPG and 27.6 APG this season. He’s facing a Nets team that ranks 23rd in DvP against SFs over the last 14 days and Brooklyn is giving up the sixth-most points in the paint (54.7) per game over the past week. Simmons is averaging 18.3 PPG on 56.4% FG shooting over three meetings with the Nets this season and has peripheral output has increased lately with averages of 8.6 PPG and 7.7 APG this month. It’s entirely possible that Simmons and Luka Doncic produce triple doubles tonight and pay off as a fantastic tournament pairing on DraftKings.

Blake Griffin vs. ORL ($7.9k DraftKings, $8.8k FanDuel)

Until Tuesday, Blake Griffin had been strangely quiet over a long stretch of games. But he went off for 29 points and 15 rebounds with a lofty 39.8% usage rate against Denver and appears primed to carry the Pistons in their quest for a playoff berth. Griffin is averaging 21.7 PPG on a modest 24.2% usage rate over three meetings with Orlando this season, but that production could certainly increase if he comes out with the same aggressive mindset tonight. Orlando shoots a weak 43.8% and gives up 46 RPG on the road this season, while Griffin averages 24.6 PPG, 7.8 RPG, and 5.7 APG in Detroit.

Serge Ibaka @ NY ($5.3k DraftKings, $5.2k FanDuel)

The Raptors are resting Kawhi Leonard at the hapless Knicks and are starting to limit the minutes of Most Improved Player of the Year frontrunner Pascal Siakam as well. That opens the door for Serge Ibaka to log starters minutes once again in a plus matchup. New York ranks 28th in defensive rating and ranks dead last in shooting percentage (.433%), leading to them yielding the fourth-most RPG (47.3) this season. The Knicks give up the most DK PPG to PFs and Ibaka is averaging 13.5 PPG and 10.5 RPG over three meetings with New York. You can’t expect huge returns from Ibaka, that potential still belongs to Siakam and Kyle Lowry with Leonard out. However, Ibaka is a solid value with a scary-low floor of 9.1 FanDuel points but a tempting ceiling of 40.3 FD points tonight per FantasyLabs. For what it’s worth, Siakam has the best per-dollar rating of any player on FD per FantasyLabs.

Other forwards to consider: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Love, Pascal Siakam, Paul Millsap, Rudy Gay, Maxi Kleber, Jonathan Isaac, Pat Connaughton, Stanley Johnson

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Best Centers for March 28, 2019

Nikola Vucevic @ DET ($8.5k DraftKings, $10.1k FanDuel)

This is an intriguing game to target tonight with Blake Griffin awoken from his slumber and both of these teams clinging to the last playoff spots in the East. Nikola Vucevic should carry the Magic as usual and he’ll have little trouble producing against a Pistons team that yields the most FPPG (52.71) to centers over the last 14 days. Vucevic cruised to averages of 20 PPG and 11 RPG on 53% FG shooting over his first three meetings with Detroit and has been shouldering a bigger burden lately with averages of 22.6 PPG and 12.4 RPG on a 28.7% usage rate in March. Since Detroit ranks 29th in FG shooting (.441%) there should be plenty of rebounding opportunities for Vucevic, who boasts a career-high 32.1% defensive rebounding rate. At a modest price tag on DK, Vucevic carries the highest per-dollar rating on the slate per FantasyLabs.

Christian Wood vs. SAC ($4.1k DraftKings, $5.5k FanDuel)

The Pelicans gave Christian Wood a chance when they signed the originally undrafted big man to a two-year contract on March 20. It appears that move was prudent, as Wood dropped 23 points, 9 rebounds, 6 blocks, and 3 steals over 31 minutes on Tuesday in his first meaningful action with New Orleans. While the UNLV product admits he was lost in the Pelicans scheme, his raw talent allowed him to provide huge salary returns. The Pelicans season is going nowhere and HC Alvin Gentry should allow Wood to play big minutes down the stretch with Anthony Davis in the doghouse and Jahlil Okafor out of the rotation. Tonight’s matchup is fantastic for Wood against a Kings team that yields the most RPG (48.2) and has been gouged by centers lately with Willie Cauley-Stein providing subpar defensive effort. A repeat performance in terms of defensive stats might be unlikely, but Wood has proven to be a double-double type of player in the G-League with averages of 29.1 PPG and 14 RPG this year.

Other centers to consider: Joel Embiid, Clint Capela, Dwight Powell, Jarrett Allen

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