NBA Advanced Plays 1/14

Written By PlayPicks Staff on January 14, 2015 - Last Updated on June 27, 2018
NBA Advanced Plays

We have a really nice 10 game slate to look at tonight and there’s a few solid games to target. The top one has to be Denver/Dallas with a 214 total and it’s a pick em. NO/Det, LAC/Por, and Atl/Bos.  All have spreads under 5 and totals over 204. Those look like the best spots on the evening, but it doesn’t mean the guys in the other games are not usable. I just think if you are going to go heavy from a game tonight those are the ones to look at.

 

It was not a great night last night as Nerlens Noel hurt me. I played teams on FD and Aces, but very light volume as I knew I was not going to be around for line up lock at 7. I only played the $22 Q on Aces. I finished mid pack thanks to sub par efforts from Kyrie and my punt of Anthony Bennett which I was not around to switch when Gorgui and Lebron news came out. On FD we missed the $5 Super Lay up but managed to cash our 50/50s to salvage the night over there. For proper bankroll management your goal should be to make a profit even when you miss the 20% GPP cut off by playing enough cash games to cover the cost of entering those larger prize pool tourneys. If you can manage to do that more often than not, you will become a long term profitable player. That should be the goal of everyone reading this. Let’s take a look at the numbers for tonight off our Sheets.

 

Point Guard

 

The man who is popping up with the highest projections, best DvP match up and has been reaching over 4 times value most often lately is Kyle Lowry. I am torn on this one as I have been avoiding a lot of guys against the Sixers due to blow outs and under utilization of the stars in them. On the Flip side though MCW is still turnover prone, Lowry still gets a lot of steals, he can score at will, and adds assists and rebounds to round out his totals. I still think he plays a good number of minutes with no game tomorrow night and while I think 55 Fantasy points on FD and DK will not be easy he is a supreme value for me on Aces tonight.

 

Another guy I am going to be rolling out tonight is Mario Chalmers. He is about $4300-$4500 across the board tonight and it looks like Dwayne Wade is going to be out. If you remember earlier in the year no Wade meant big numbers for Chalmers and at a price that low he has a great floor and the potential for an explosive ceiling tonight. This play obviously hinges on Wade’s availability but that looks doubtful right now which makes this a high upside high probability play with a lot of built in salary relief all over.

 

On FD and DK the low end of the curb has me on Grievis Vasquez and Elfrid Payton. Vasquez is starting to see more minutes again and still is producing numbers in all categories. Payton should see a usage uptick with Tobias out and he has already been playing more minutes and doing a decent job of putting up fantasy points in them. Payton is probably my favorite of the two due to a clearer path to points and minutes, but if you subscribe to the theory of less minutes for the stars against Philly then he would be the beneficiary of a light workload on Lowry. As I said I am torn on the question, but the right answer should mean money for those bold enough to take the leaps of faith.

 

Shooting Guard

 

There’s a ton of value at SG tonight and that should definitely help you fill two slots on FD and use more than one of them on DK and Aces. The two I like best are Wes Matthews and Victor Oladipo. Wes is in a pretty high O/U game against a team that allows SG to do some damage. Plus his price is still pretty fair across all sites and he is one of the best values on the night when you sum all that up. Oladipo is playing without Tobias Harris and is also fairly priced across the board. He should see an uptick in usage and minutes so it stands to reason he should have a pretty high floor and access to his ceiling tonight. He never puts up a 50 spot or anything like that, but I could see 5 to 6 times on the APP scale from him tonight pretty clearly.

 

If Jrue Holiday is out, Then I also would include Tyreke Evans in that group as he should see more run at the point guard spot and have the ball in his hands more often. Evans is capable of the 50 burger when his usage is up, so he becomes an interesting option tonight if that all shakes out for him. Even without definitive news his early projections show him as a nice value, so we could get a big game from him tonight and you should monitor that situation.

 

Small Forward

 

There are three guys I will be using here today on FD and DK and only one who I am considering on Aces. The guys I like on all three is James “Neck Tat” Johnson of Toronto. He is now the starter and averaging around 35 minutes since he became one. He should easily be able to put up a nice stat line against a horrid Sixers defense and could return 5 or 6 times his salary based off the low bargain basement price. He makes a great upside salary saver for you to fit in some of the studs without losing too much upside and production.

 

Where I need to use two of them I will also be taking some shares in Nic Batum at the high end and KJ McDaniels if I need to save. Batum has been a very solid contributor in recent games and is a very reasonably priced cash game option with a very solid floor. He has not really smashed through his upper limits much if ever in recent games, so he has some downside for a GPP team. He is still a safe bet for a 5 times return tonight though and that’s very useful in all formats. McDaniels has the higher ceiling today off his price, but he is no where near as safe. With Wroten out he had a great game last time and did so earlier in the year with MCW on the shelf. He will see minutes and get a good deal of usage whether the game stays close or not, so that is always a positive to have in your corner. I think JJ is a better value and almost as cheap though so he is still my top option for savings and I will probably have him and Batum paired most often.

 

Power Forward

 

Across the board tonight my play is probably going to be Greg Monroe. He is still cheap everywhere and his new role has him scoring, rebounding, and facilitating. That game has a high O/U and a low spread so minutes do not worry me, although I guess the risk is always foul trouble trying to guard the Brow on the other end. I still think he is in line for a nice game and should have a bunch of assists as I think they use him in a high post role to try and draw AD away from helping on Drummond under the basket.

 

The other guy I really like at the lower end is Donatas Motiejunas of Houston. Howard is hurting and playing less minutes. The Rockets realized they were better off with Motie over Smooth, and in recent games he has been seeing minutes and producing over 30 fantasy points. At his price on FD and DK that is a very nice haul on the APP scale. I forsee more of the same tonight and we may even see Howard out or limited which I think only helps Motie as he may see some center minutes as well tonight. He’s not gonna get you fifty, but he is very safe for 25-35 points at a nice mid tier price range.

 

A few other guys are popping up in spots you might want to take a look at. Amir Johnson is too volatile to me, even against Philly so I won’t be using him despite his numbers. Pau Gasol  is a good option lately, but his price has skyrocketed. He is solid if unspectacular value across all three sites today, but I prefer to pay up elsewhere if anywhere. Kenneth Faried is still showing nicely on FD, but his DK price is a little high for me. With the high O/U in that one I do not hate him on FD. Nerlens Noel burned me last night, but he is still cheap on FD and DK. He is seeing 30+ minutes but has not really capitalized on them yet, so I have some pause but would not be shocked if he was a top value today. I will be using those five exclusively and most of the money will go towards Motie and Monroe most likely.

 

Center

 

The main man and guy I will be paying up for is Nikola Vucevic. With no Tobias he will need to do all the rebounding and should see increased usage for his scoring as well. I’m banking on Dwight being out or limited and even if he is in he is not moving like he does when truly healthy. Vucevic has a very polished offensive game and is really taking care of business on that end of the floor. For the Magic to stay in this game tonight they are going to need 20 and 15 out of him.

 

The cheaper option that checks all the boxes is Jonas Valanciunas. He has been playing well and reaching above his value often. Factor in he is also playing one of the worst teams against opposing centers that alllowed a Triple double to one last night and you got the makings of a solid fantasy game from him. The only thing that stops him from value is a light workload in a blowout in my opinion which is truly his only risk.

 

The third guy who makes boatloads of sense to use is the enigma known as Hassan Whiteside. His FD and Aces prices are criminally low still and only on DK do I really have to pause. It defies logic to me too that he is doing this well, but I’m not one to argue against the numbers and he has been putting them up. If Bogut is out I like him even more, but would pause if Bogut is in although he has proved me wrong already this week and is on fire, so tough to argue against.


Good Luck tonight everybody. Be sure to keep an eye on the late breaking news. I apologize for not being around near line up lock last night to answer questions but I should be on for the two hours proceeding it tonight. You guys know I love talking hoops so if you DMed me last night and I did not answer feel free to try again today and we can all hash some of this stuff out together. Lot of cash and Q tickets on the line tonight, so go get that money and those seats.

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