NBA DFS

The NBA DFS season rolls on Friday, 3/15/19, and we’ve got our best picks for your DraftKings and FanDuel lineups tonight.

Please note the advice below is relevant for daily fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, and lots of other factors. This is important to consider when constructing a roster.

Injuries play a huge role in NBA DFS on a nightly basis. Value plays on the various daily fantasy sites can arise at a moment’s notice, so always, always check the starting lineups and injury news right before tipoff.

The Full Roster contests on FanDuel include a new scoring system in which the lowest score of the nine selected players is dropped, allowing users to take more risks with a punt play or two. Then, DraftKings has brought back its late swap for NBA contests.

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3/15/19 NBA DFS TOURNAMENT PICKS

Big Jam: $10 entry, $350k guaranteed (DraftKings) – $100,000 to 1st!
Four Point Play: $4 entry, $100k guaranteed (DraftKings)
Shot: $9.99 entry, $300k guaranteed (FanDuel) – $100,000 to 1st!
Shot: $7.77 entry, $60k guaranteed (FanDuel)

NBA DFS Top Plays for March 15, 2019

Best Guards for March 15, 2019

Damian Lillard @ NO ($9.0k DraftKings, $9.9k FanDuel)

On Tuesday, Damian Lillard flashed his prowess as a playmaker with 12 assists to go along with 20 points. Tonight he should be able to score and dish out dimes against a woeful Pelicans defense. And it’s become much more vulnerable to guards since losing Jrue Holiday (abdomen). New Orleans is coughing up 119.6 PPG and a whopping 29.5 APG since the ASB. Then, Lillard is averaging 25 PPG, 6 RPG, and 7 APG over two meetings with the fast-paced Pels. New Orleans ranks 23rd in DvP and allows PGs to shoot the fifth-highest percentage (43.9) in the league this year with Holiday active. Now the Pelicans are forced to use the diminutive Frank Jackson at PG. Lillard should chew him up. He has a ceiling of 65.4 DraftKings points tonight per models on FantasyLabs.

Kris Dunn @ LAC ($5.4k DraftKings, $6.2k FanDuel)

You might have to pivot off Kris Dunn if Zach LaVine (knee) is able to return to action tonight. But if LaVine misses a third straight game, Dunn should be atop the list of players ready to step up. The Providence product sees a huge 7.4% increase in usage rate (to 27.2%) and averages 0.18 more FPs per minute (1.14) when LaVine is off the floor this season. He’s been hobbled at times this season but appears ready to step up. He posted a 25.9% usage rate and 43.2% assist rate during Tuesday’s loss to the Lakers. The Clippers are a far superior defensive team but are playing with tremendous pace lately and giving up 24.5 APG since the ASB.

Emmanuel Mudiay @ SA ($4.2k DraftKings, $4.8k FanDuel)

The matchup is far from ideal, but Emmanuel Mudiay produced a great line (21 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 blocks) in an even tougher matchup against Indiana Tuesday. Dennis Smith Jr. (back) struggled badly in that contest and is likely to rest or play limited minutes against the Spurs tonight. Surprisingly enough, San Antonio ranks 20th in defensive rating and is giving up the fourth-most PPG (21.74) to PGs this season. Mudiay isn’t the most efficient player, but that’s not a great concern for a Knicks team devoid of options on offense. He’s averaging 19.6 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 5.1 assists per 36 minutes and could get that amount of playing time if Smith Jr. is out.

Other guards to consider: Bradley Beal, Kemba Walker, De’Aaron Fox, Lou Williams, J.J. Redick, Luke Kennard, Ryan Arcidiacono

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Best Forwards for March 15, 2019

Ben Simmons vs. SAC ($8.5k DraftKings, $9.8k FanDuel)

The Kings not only play at the fastest pace in the league but are also on the second half of a B2B on the road tonight. What more do you need to target Philly? Sacramento yields 114.3 PPG and 27 APG when playing on 0 days rest, and Ben Simmons thrives with averages of 17.5 PPG and 8.2 APG with a 118 offensive rating at home. Simmons is averaging 19 PPG, 10 RPG, and 7.7 APG over his last 10 appearances and scored 22 points on 9-for-14 FG shooting the last time he faced the Kings. He should be able to pile up more assists at home, where the Sixers average 117.7 PPG and 27.8 APG this season.

Since Simmons is questionable tonight with an illness, he should be considered a GPP play if active. Looking elsewhere on the Sixers’ roster, J.J. Redick sees a 2.0% increase in usage rate and Joel Embiid posts a monstrous 36.7% usage rate when Simmons is off the floor. Expect the Sixers to run most of their offense through that tandem if Simmons sits. Finally, James Ennis and T.J. McConnell would become longshot value options in that scenario.

Montrezl Harrell vs. CHI ($6.0k DraftKings, $7.5k FanDuel)

His usage is dependent on game flow, but when given a full slate of run, Montrezl Harrell can exceed value by a wide margin on DraftKings. The Bulls have been stingy against traditional centers but could get exposed by a quicker big man like Harrell. His averages (16.9 PPG, 7.3 RPG, and 1.6 BPG) jump significantly across the board when playing at Staples Center, and he’s averaging 1.27 FPs per minute over his last four appearances. Chicago ranks 25th in defensive rating and coughs up the second-most defensive RPG (36.2). Harrell is averaging 22.1 points and 9.1 rebounds per 36 minutes this season and could see a ton of run if Danilo Gallinari (ankle) is unable to suit up tonight.

Kelly Oubre Jr. @ HOU ($5.9k DraftKings, $6.8k FanDuel)

The Suns (+13) might not be able to compete for four quarters in Houston tonight, but Kelly Oubre Jr. tends to produce great lines even when games devolve into garbage time. He’s averaging 1.17 FPs per minute over his last five appearances, including a huge performance (27 points and 13 rebounds) against the Bucks’ top-rated defense. Houston plays a similar run-and-gun style with aggressive closeouts and ranks 28th in DvP against opposing SGs (24th against SFs) over the last 14 days. Josh Jackson has been very ineffective lately, and when he sits along with Tyler Johnson (knee, questionable) and T.J. Warren (ankle, out), Oubre sees a huge 0.2 increase in FPs per minute (1.19) with a 27.9% usage rate.

Other forwards to consider: LaMarcus Aldridge, Blake Griffin, Kyle Kuzma, Jabari Parker, Justise Winslow, Marvin Williams, Al-Farouq Aminu

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Best Centers for March 15, 2019

Andre Drummond vs. LAL ($8.8k DraftKings, $10.0k FanDuel)

An angry Andre Drummond is primed to bounce back ferociously tonight after dropping a foul-plagued dud in Miami Wednesday. That poor performance ended his franchise-best streak of 19 straight games with a double-double. He’s a virtual lock to start a new streak tonight against a Lakers team that yields the most RPG (16.12) and fourth-most PPG (20.51) to centers this season. Drummond is averaging 15.4 RPG over his last three meetings with the Lakers and is facing a crestfallen team coughing up a league-high 120.2 PPG and 46.4 RPG since Feb. 1. Drummond is a locked-in option in any format on DK with the highest per-dollar rating (93.6) on that site per FantasyLabs.

JaVale McGee vs. DET ($4.4k DraftKings, $5.1k FanDuel)

Drummond giveth and Drummond taketh away, but on the defensive end, he mostly just giveth. That’s why Detroit is allowing the most FPPG (52.71) to centers over the last 14 days. JaVale McGee is coming off a double-double performance over 33 minutes Tuesday and is likely to see 30-plus minutes again as the Lakers’ best means of defending Drummond. McGee is averaging 11.6 PPG, 4.6 RPG, and 1 BPG while shooting 73% from the floor this month, as the Lakers start to punt on their season. With LA on the second half of a B2B, LeBron James and others could rest. That could turn this game into a sloppy affair in which both starting centers eat.

Other centers to consider: Joel Embiid, Jusuf Nurkic, Clint Capela, Ivica Zubac

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