Please note the advice below is relevant for daily fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, and lots of other factors. This is important to consider when constructing a roster.
Injuries play a huge role in NBA DFS on a nightly basis. Value plays on the various daily fantasy sites can arise at a moment’s notice, so always, always check the starting lineups and injury news right before tipoff.
The Full Roster contests on FanDuel include a new scoring system in which the lowest score of the nine selected players is dropped, allowing users to take more risks with a punt play or two. Then, DraftKings has brought back its late swap for NBA contests.
3/12/19 NBA DFS TOURNAMENT PICKS
Tuesday Shootaround: $15 entry, $450k guaranteed (DraftKings) – $100,000 to 1st!
Four Point Play: $4 entry, $125k guaranteed (DraftKings)
Shot: $15 entry, $333k guaranteed (FanDuel) – $100,000 to 1st!
Shot: $7.77 entry, $70k guaranteed (FanDuel)
NBA DFS Top Plays for March 12, 2019
Best Guards for March 12, 2019
Damian Lillard @ LAC ($9.2k DraftKings, $9.7k FanDuel)
The Clippers have been tough on opposing guards all season but have struggled to contain Damian Lillard. They also yield 25.8 APG and 116.8 PPG on the second half of B2B sets, so inflated production is certainly possible at Staples Center tonight. The last time these teams faced off, Lillard went for 39 points on 11-for-20 FG shooting and got to the line 13 times. The Clips give up the third-most FTA (28.8) and will have tired legs tonight. Lillard is averaging 27.1 PPG with a 31.2% usage rate since the ASB and is a low-risk option with tremendous potential relative to his price tag on DraftKings.
Zach LaVine vs. LAL ($7.8k DraftKings, $8.5k FanDuel)
Tonight’s tilt between the tanking Bulls and devolving Lakers is certainly one to lean toward for your DFS lineup decisions. It’s been assigned a 226-point Over/Under, and the Lakers (-1) are marginal road favorites. If Zach LaVine is ready to go after sitting out Sunday’s game to rest his knee, he could thrive against a Lakers team that ranks bottom five in DvP against every position over the last 14 days. LaVine has ramped up since the ASB with averages of 28.2 PPG and 4.8 APG. Plus, he’s playing 37.6 MPG when active. The Lakers are now fourth in pace and are coughing up a league-high 121.3 PPG since the start of February.
Jalen Brunson vs. SA ($5.0k DraftKings, $5.4k FanDuel)
He’s safe to use even if Luka Doncic (knee) is active tonight, but Jalen Brunson will become a fantastic play if the rookie sensation sits. Even with Doncic active, Brunson is averaging 15.3 PPG and 7 APG while logging 33.3 MPG over his last three appearances. The Spurs uncharacteristically rank 20th in defensive rating this season and give up 115.4 PPG and 26.3 APG on the road. Brunson demonstrated an excellent ability to run an offense at Villanova, and he’s starting to figure out the NBA game.
Other guards to consider: Ben Simmons, Lou Williams, Eric Bledsoe, Dennis Smith Jr., Frank Jackson, Collin Sexton, Wesley Matthews
Best Forwards for March 12, 2019
LaMarcus Aldridge @ DAL ($8.9k DraftKings, $8.9k FanDuel)
When he was a Maverick, DeAndre Jordan was one of the few defenders long enough to prevent LaMarcus Aldridge from getting his shot off at will in this in-state rivalry. His trading to the Knicks leaves slender Maxi Kleber and inexperienced Dwight Powell to try and check the Spurs’ mid-range monster. Aldridge is averaging 23 PPG, 8.6 RPG, and shooting 54.3% from the floor since the ASB. He’s struggled at times on the road but has produced 76 points over his last three road appearances and has dropped at least 22 points in six straight. His usage will be even more secure if Rudy Gay (illness) misses another game.
Julius Randle vs. MIL ($8.7k DraftKings, $9.0k FanDuel)
While the Bucks are atop the NBA in defensive rating, they score enough and play with enough pace to generate plenty of production from the opposition’s top players. With Jrue Holiday (abdomen) out and Anthony Davis on a minutes limit, Julius Randle is the undisputed top option for New Orleans. The big lefty presents a bit of a matchup problem for a Bucks team that lacks athleticism at the center position. Randle was inactive the only time these teams met this season, but now he’s rolling with averages of 23.5 PPG, 6.8 RPG, and 3.2 APG with a 28.1% usage rate since Feb. 1. He sees a 6.9% increase in usage rate (to 34.8%) when Davis and Holiday are off the floor and has scored in double figures in 37 consecutive appearances.
Tobias Harris vs. CLE ($7.5k DraftKings, $7.4k FanDuel)
The Sixers will be without Jimmy Butler (rest) tonight, which opens up opportunities for some value plays. James Ennis ($4.4k, $3.7k) is expected to start but has limited upside. T.J. McConnell ($3.2k, $3.6k) is a longshot with a chance to step up against a guard-heavy Cavs team. But the main candidate to reap the benefits of increased usage is Tobias Harris. Harris averages 1.16 FPs per minute (0.09 increase) with a 28.8% usage rate (6.5% increase) when Butler is off the floor this season. The Cavs (+13.5) might not compete for four quarters, but Harris should still meet value.
Otto Porter vs. LAL ($6.4k DraftKings, $7.5k FanDuel)
Otto Porter is a confident option for Cash games tonight against the defensively inept Lakers. Zach LaVine may have more upside, but Porter is almost a lock to meet value at his price tag on DraftKings. The Lakers cough up the second-most FPPG (41.21) to opposing SFs this season and have become a sieve defensively since their playoff hopes collapsed. Porter is averaging 18.3 PPG and 3.1 APG with significant rises in usage rate (21.5%) and assist rate (14.9%) since joining the Bulls. Porter has the third-highest per-dollar rating on DK tonight per FantasyLabs.
Other forwards to consider: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Love, Will Barton, Thaddeus Young, Nikola Mirotic, Noah Vonleh, Mike Scott
Best Centers for March 12, 2019
Karl-Anthony Towns @ DEN ($10.4k DraftKings, $7.1k FanDuel)
After sitting out Sunday’s game to rest his knee (one of the first such absences of his impressive career), Karl-Anthony Towns can be expected to return for a premier matchup against Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets. Towns went for 31 points, 12 rebounds, and 7 assists in his last meeting with Denver and has been absolutely carrying the Wolves offense with averages of 32.6 PPG, 12.7 RPG and 3.7 APG with a 32.5% usage rate since Feb. 1. Denver is coughing up 112.1 PPG during that span. Andrew Wiggins (quad) is in danger of missing a second straight game, and Derrick Rose is playing limited minutes at times. Towns leads the Wolves with a 34.3% usage rate and averages 1.67 FPs per minute (0.17 increase) when those players are off the floor along with Robert Covington (ankle, out).
Moe Wagner @ CHI ($3.3k DraftKings, $5.0k FanDuel)
With the Lakers’ season circling the drain, new blood is getting an opportunity. That includes rookie Moe Wagner, who is fresh off carrying Michigan to the Final Four this past spring. Wagner posted 22 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assists in his first NBA start and is now averaging 17.9 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 2.4 assists per 36 minutes while shooting 51% from the floor. Brandon Ingram (shoulder) is done for the season, LeBron James is limited to 28-32 minutes, and might not go hard against the lowly Bulls. If Kyle Kuzma (ankle) sits another game, Wagner will become a slam-dunk value as a high-usage candidate at a very minimal price tag. He has the potential for 6.9x salary returns on DK tonight per FantasyLabs.
Other centers to consider: Joel Embiid, Jusuf Nurkic, Mitchell Robinson