NBA DFS

The NBA DFS season rolls on Monday, 3/11/19, and we’ve got our best picks for your DraftKings and FanDuel lineups tonight.

Please note the advice below is relevant for daily fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, and lots of other factors. This is important to consider when constructing a roster.

Injuries play a huge role in NBA DFS on a nightly basis. Value plays on the various daily fantasy sites can arise at a moment’s notice, so always, always check the starting lineups and injury news right before tipoff.

The Full Roster contests on FanDuel include a new scoring system in which the lowest score of the nine selected players is dropped, allowing users to take more risks with a punt play or two. Then, DraftKings has brought back its late swap for NBA contests.

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3/11/19 NBA DFS TOURNAMENT PICKS

Monday Night Throwdown: $15 entry, $500k guaranteed (DraftKings) – $100,000 to 1st!
Four Point Play: $4 entry, $130k guaranteed (DraftKings)
Shot (Streak Eligible): $9.99 entry, $333k guaranteed (FanDuel) – $100,000 to 1st!
Shot: $7.77 entry, $77k guaranteed (FanDuel)

NBA DFS Top Plays for March 11, 2019

Best Guards for March 11, 2019

Bradley Beal vs. SAC ($9.7k DraftKings, $10.8k FanDuel)

Few teams have been as generous in DFS contests as the Kings. Thus, this is a game to target, and the Wizards offense will inevitably through Bradley Beal. Sacramento is a ripe opponent since the Kings yield the most PPG (24.02) and second-most FPPG (38.6) to SGs this season. Beal went for a modest 21 points without an assist when these teams faced off in October. Now, his usage rate and assist rate have skyrocketed with John Wall (Achilles) lost for the season. Beal is averaging 26.4 PPG, 7.8 RPG, and 7.6 APG over his last five appearances and shoots 37% from 3-point range at home. With the Wizards (-1.5) slightly favored and the Over/Under set at 241.5 points, Beal is likely to thrive in an uptempo affair.

De’Aaron Fox vs. WAS ($7.3k DraftKings, $8.0k FanDuel)

This is a mirror image of the pick above, as the Wizards also hemorrhage offensive production. You could stack Beal with De’Aaron Fox and hope for a shootout to top 240 combined points and provide big lines for both playmaking guards. Fox is averaging 18.9 PPG and 7.6 APG over his last eight appearances with a 34.8% assist rate during that span. He posted a 43.1% assist rate in his sole meeting with the Wizards this season. Washington coughs up the fourth-most APG (25.9) while playing at the eighth-fastest pace in the NBA. Fox is coming off a 30-point game at MSG and should ride that momentum into a plus matchup at home. Fox has the potential for 5.2x salary returns tonight on DraftKings according to models on FantasyLabs.

Ish Smith @ BKN ($4.1k DraftKings, $4.9k FanDuel)

Reggie Jackson exceeded value with 21 points and 6 assists over 24 minutes in a 23-point win over Chicago on Sunday but exited the game with a thumb injury. If he sits tonight, Ish Smith will become an obvious value with Luke Kennard and Wayne Ellington likely to step up as well. Smith has flashed his upside in a few blowouts lately and is averaging 14.3 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 5.6 assists per 36 minutes this season. Smith averages 0.17 assists per minute when Jackson is off the floor, and that number could rise if he starts tonight and is given the opportunity to feed Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond.

Other guards to consider: Kyrie Irving, Donovan Mitchell, Buddy Hield, Spencer Dinwiddie, Tomas Satoransky, Marcus Smart, Luke Kennard, Landry Shamet

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Best Forwards for March 11, 2019

Paul George @ UTA ($9.5k DraftKings, $10.6k FanDuel)

While he fouled out in a lackluster performance at the Clippers Friday, Paul George proved he’s back to his MVP form with a huge line (32 points, 14 rebounds, 6 assists) in a win at Portland the night before. That potential makes him clearly underpriced on DraftKings in a matchup better than it appears on paper. Utah is coughing up the most FPPG (43.12) to SFs over the last 14 days and ranks 19th in opponents 3-point shooting (35.9%) this season. George shot 15-for-25 from the field for 43 points in a 107-106 win the last time (Dec. 22) he visited Salt Lake City. He averages 29.2 PPG with a 30.5% usage rate on the road.

Joe Ingles vs. OKC ($5.9k DraftKings, $6.4k FanDuel)

Utah is expected to be without Ricky Rubio (hip) and Raul Neto (groin) tonight. While Dante Exum (ankle) is expected to play for the first time since Jan 5, he’s likely to see limited minutes. Joe Ingles should be the beneficiary of those limitations as the primary facilitator and scorer next to Donovan Mitchell. Ingles is averaging a career-best 8 assists per 100 possessions and was red-hot with a 126 offensive rating and 45.6% shooting mark from downtown during February. He’s averaging 11.3 PPG and 6.7 APG over three meetings with the Thunder this season. Ingles has been more productive at home, and OKC is giving up a whopping 119.6 PPG since the ASB. Finally, if you watched the playoffs last year, you know how facing Paul George brings out the best in Ingles. He has a 6.33 plus/minus rating with the potential for 5.7x salary returns on DK per FantasyLabs.

Marcus Morris @ LAC ($4.5k DraftKings, $5.1k FanDuel)

Gordon Hayward drew headlines lately for torching the Warriors and burning the Kings with a last-second shot, but his box score output has been less impressive than that of Marcus Morris. The Celtics might be without Jayson Tatum (shoulder) tonight, and both Morris and Hayward average 0.9 more FPs per minute with Tatum off the floor. Morris sees a 2.2% rise in usage rate (to 24.7%). Plus, he’s more likely to log big minutes in a matchup against the athletic Clippers front line. Morris has made tremendous strides in his ability to create his own shot and is posting a career-best 111 offensive rating this season.

Other forwards to consider: Blake Griffin, Kevin Love, Pascal Siakam, Derrick Favors, Jabari Parker, Gordon Hayward, Nemanja Bjelica, Royce O’Neale

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Best Centers for March 11, 2019

Al Horford @ LAC ($6.6k DraftKings, $7.1k FanDuel)

A consummate pro, Al Horford simply fills whatever role the Celtics need to win on a given night. That meant taking a back seat in a blowout win at Golden State and in a fast-paced game against the Lakers Saturday, but he should be more involved in tonight’s tilt at Staples Center. The Clippers are more comparable to the Kings in the way they play with pace and rotate too aggressively against pick-and-roll sets, which is partially why they give up the second-most PPG (21.26) to opposing centers. Unlike the Lakers, the Clippers (+1) are battling hard for a playoff spot and are expected to give the Celtics everything they can handle in a game with a 226-point Over/Under.

Bobby Portis vs. SAC ($5.9k DraftKings, $6.5k FanDuel)

We’ll circle back to another great play in a game that has been assigned an astronomical 241.5-point Over/Under. Bobby Portis is thriving with the Wizards and caught fire recently with 44 points on 19-for-34 FG shooting over his last two appearances. Now, he’ll face a Kings team that ranks second in pace and coughs up the most RPG (48.6) this season. Sacramento ranks 23rd in opponents 2-point shooting (53.3%), and Portis is shooting a career-best 48% from the floor since joining Washington ahead of the trade deadline. He exceeded value with 9 points and 8 rebounds over just 18 minutes when he faced the Kings as a member of the Bulls and is far more reliable in Washington’s fast-paced system.

Other centers to consider: Andre Drummond, Clint Capela, Jarrett Allen, Ante Zizic

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