Please note the advice below is relevant for daily fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, and lots of other factors. This is important to consider when constructing a roster.
Injuries play a huge role in NBA DFS on a nightly basis. Value plays on the various daily fantasy sites can arise at a moment’s notice, so always, always check the starting lineups and injury news right before tipoff.
The Full Roster contests on FanDuel include a new scoring system in which the lowest score of the nine selected players is dropped, allowing users to take more risks with a punt play or two. Then, DraftKings has brought back its late swap for NBA contests.
3/4/19 NBA DFS TOURNAMENT PICKS
Mini Bounce Pass: $7 entry, $500k guaranteed (DraftKings) – $100,000 to 1st!
Sharpshooter: $3 entry, $75k guaranteed (DraftKings)
Shot (Streak Eligible): $9.99 entry, $333k guaranteed (FanDuel) – $100,000 to 1st!
Shot: $7.77 entry, $80k guaranteed (FanDuel)
NBA DFS Top Plays for March 4, 2019
Best Guards for March 4, 2019
Donovan Mitchell vs. NO ($8.3k DraftKings, $9.3k FanDuel)
Despite Anthony Davis-related distractions, the Pelicans pulled off an upset in Denver Saturday. If they keep tonight’s game close in Utah, Donovan Mitchell will have a chance to follow up on his monster 46-point effort against the Bucks’ top-rated defense. The Pelicans cough up the second-most FPPG (42) to opposing SGs over the last 14 days and are giving up 118.9 PPG over their last eight contests. After posting a 41.8% usage rate in the win over Milwaukee, Mitchell boasts a 34.7% usage rate and a 115 offensive rating since the ASB. He averages 24.2 PPG on 43.5% FG shooting at home and went 7-for-10 from the floor for an easy 22 points in a win at New Orleans in October. Now, he’s playing with even more confidence. Moreover, the Pelicans lack any real rim protection with Davis (illness) maybe sitting this one out entirely.
Buddy Hield vs. NY ($7.0k DraftKings, $7.6k FanDuel)
Buddy Hield has come out of the ASB firing. He’s averaging 25.2 PPG with a 29.8% usage rate over his last five appearances and should have little trouble finding opportunities to score at home tonight against the tanking Knicks. The Knicks yield 114.6 PPG on the road and are on the second half of a B2B set. They also cough up the most 3PTM (2.85) to SGs and rank 25th in opponents overall shooting percentage (47.0) this season. Hield is projected for 35.1 FanDuel points tonight with a modest ceiling of 49 FD points per FantasyLabs, giving him a solid floor but somewhat low ceiling.
Eric Bledsoe @ PHO ($6.5k DraftKings, $7.4k FanDuel)
Milwaukee’s nine-game road winning streak fell on Saturday despite Giannis Antetokounmpo providing his biggest performance since he came down with a knee issue. When the Bucks were at full strength on Friday, Giannis played 32 minutes with a modest 25.2% usage rate. Eric Bledose led the Bucks with a 36.9% usage rate (31 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists) at Staples Center, then sat out Saturday’s game to rest (listed out with a back issue). He’s not on the injury report tonight and should be firing on all cylinders against the Suns. Remember Phoenix drafted him. Now they’re 29th in defensive rating. Bledsoe is averaging 17.2 PPG, 6.8 RPG, and 6 APG over his last five appearances and has a decisive advantage in terms of athleticism against new Suns PG Tyler Johnson. Even with Bledsoe active, consider Pat Connaughton ($3.4k, $3.8k) as a value play with increased opportunities in a potential blowout.
Other guards to consider: Trae Young, Jrue Holiday, Lou Williams, Brandon Ingram, Dwyane Wade, Emmanuel Mudiay, Kevin Huerter, Landry Shamet, Jalen Brunson
Best Forwards for March 4, 2019
LaMarcus Aldridge vs. DEN ($7.7k DraftKings, $8.6k FanDuel)
Few players can compare to LaMarcus Aldridge when it comes to home/road splits. Aldridge is averaging 18.3 PPG on 48.4% shooting with a modest 25.9% usage rate on the road. That’s compared to 23.6 PPG on 53.2% FG shooting with a 28.6% usage rate at home. He should be called upon to score early and often in a matchup against high-scoring Denver. The Nuggets happen to cough up the third-most FPPG (45.88) to PFs this season. Aldridge has produced 51 points while going 24-for-41 (58.5%) from the field over two meetings with Denver this season. With the Spurs on the cusp of the playoffs, Aldridge carried his squad with 27 points in a home win over the Thunder Friday. He could do the same tonight.
Kelly Olynyk vs. ATL ($5.3k DraftKings, $5.6k FanDuel)
Both Kelly Olynyk and Bam Adebayo ($5.6k, $5.5k) will remain viable mid-tier options in any format if Hassan Whiteside (hip) misses tonight’s contest. If Whiteside plays, both are still worth using in GPP formats since Whiteside has done nothing to ingratiate himself with the Heat’s coaching staff. He could get benched down the stretch of this matchup regardless. Olynyk has certainly made a case for more playing time with averages of 22.3 PPG, 6.5 RPG, and 2.8 APG over his last four. He’s a versatile scorer and will present matchup problems for a Hawks team that yields the most PPG (119.1) by far this season. Atlanta could be without forwards John Collins (illness), Taurean Prince (personal), and Omari Spellman (ankle).
Dwight Powell vs. BKN ($5.2k DraftKings, $6.3k FanDuel)
The Mavericks were embarrassed in a 30-point loss to Memphis on Saturday night. On the bright side, Dwight Powell continued to show signs that he can replace the traded DeAndre Jordan as a viable NBA center. Powell posted 13 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assists with a 30.1% assist rate and 26.6% defensive rebounding rate while on the floor. Powell is averaging 13 PPG and 6.9 RPG over his last 11 appearances but has only recently been given starting minutes. With per-36 minute averages of 17.9 points, 8.8 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 2.2 STL/BLK, he’s bound to produce when the Mavs get into close games. The opposing Nets were blown out in their last game and cough up the fourth-most RPG (16.23) to centers over the last 14 days. Powell has the second-highest per-dollar rating of any player on DK tonight with a 10.05 plus/minus projection according to FantasyLabs.
Other forwards to consider: LeBron James, Danilo Gallinari, Derrick Favors, Justise Winslow, Bam Adebayo, Noah Vonleh, Deandre Bembry
Best Centers for March 4, 2019
Mitchell Robinson @ SAC ($6.4k DraftKings, $7.1k FanDuel)
Mitchell Robinson has flat out been the Knicks’ best player recently. Plus, it doesn’t appear DeAndre Jordan (ankle) will be playing in many more games with the Knicks tanking. Robinson managed 18 points, 13 rebounds, and 4 blocks off the bench in a blowout loss yesterday, so clearly his role his secure regardless of whether he’s starting. Willie Cauley-Stein and the Kings have struggled against physical centers this season, and Robinson is producing against all comers with averages of 12.7 points, 9.9 rebounds, and 4.4 blocks per 36 minutes this season.
Alex Len vs. MIA ($4.0k DraftKings, $3.7k FanDuel)
The Hawks will be thin up front if John Collins, Taurean Prince, and/or Omari Spellman miss a second consecutive game. While Alex Len is a candidate to rest on the second half of tonight’s B2B set, he’ll be an obvious value in a good spot if he’s able to suit up. The big man is suddenly on a tear with 52 points, 19 rebounds, and 4 blocks over 51 minutes in the Hawks’ past two games. Injuries to those players, Trae Young‘s ejection Sunday, and a quadruple-overtime tilt Friday have inflated those numbers, but Len is showing true promise with a greatly improved stroke from 3-point land. Spacing the floor in a fast-paced offense that centers around the shifty Young, Len is a valuable asset for Atlanta. It could certainly garner him more playing time toward the end of a rebuilding year. Len has the potential for 6.7x salary returns tonight per FantasyLabs.
Other centers to consider: Nikola Jokic, Rudy Gobert, Montrezl Harrell, Jakob Poeltl