Please note the advice below is relevant for daily fantasy purposes. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, and lots of other factors. This is important to consider when constructing a roster.
Injuries play a huge role in NBA DFS on a nightly basis. Value plays on the various daily fantasy sites can arise at a moment’s notice, so always, always check the starting lineups and injury news right before tipoff.
The Full Roster contests on FanDuel include a new scoring system in which the lowest score of the nine selected players is dropped, allowing users to take more risks with a punt play or two. Then, DraftKings has brought back its late swap for NBA contests.
2/28/19 NBA DFS TOURNAMENT PICKS
Big Jam: $10 entry, $400k guaranteed (DraftKings) – $100,000 to 1st!
Four Point Play: $4 entry, $100k guaranteed (DraftKings)
Shot: $9.99 entry, $300k guaranteed (FanDuel) – $100,000 to 1st!
Shot (Streak Eligible): $7.77 entry, $150k guaranteed (FanDuel)
NBA DFS Top Plays for February 28, 2019
Best Guards for February 28, 2019
Russell Westbrook vs. PHI ($11.1k DraftKings, $11.6k FanDuel)
Few games are expected to be close tonight. Fewer still have high point totals, according to today’s standards in the NBA. But the Thunder (-5) and Sixers are expected to play a shootout with a 239.5-point Over/Under, giving huge upside to high-end plays like Russell Westbrook. The triple-double machine is averaging 25.9 PPG, 13.1 RPG, and 11.5 APG over his last 10 appearances and scoring 35.3 PPG over three appearances out of the ASB. Philly coughs up 114.5 PPG on the road, and Westbrook averages 23.1 PPG with a huge 32.3% usage rate at home. The Sixers also yield the most APG (9.97) to PGs, and Westbrook’s 46.6% assist rate is the highest in the league by a wide margin. He’s projected for 61.4 DraftKings points tonight with a huge ceiling of 81.8 DK points per models on FantasyLabs.
Collin Sexton @ NY ($5.0k DraftKings, $5.0k FanDuel)
The struggling Cavs (+3.5) and Knicks might not have a high point total (213) in their tilt tonight, but there is a lot of value to be found in a potentially close game. The Knicks’ unpredictable rotations make their guards more suitable for GPP formats. But Collin Sexton can be used in most formats as the Cavs look to give their rookie as much experience as possible. He’s playing 35.4 MPG and averaging 18.4 PPG with a 101 offensive rating over nine appearances this month. The Knicks are yielding the most 3PTM (2.85) per game to opposing SGs, and Sexton is shooting 42% from downtown this month. Sexton has produced 39 points and is averaging 33.5 MPG over two meetings with the Knicks this season. He is a safe value option to consider on FanDuel.
Emmanuel Mudiay vs. CLE ($4.9k DraftKings, $5.9k FanDuel)
The Knicks also offer potential values in this game. Yet they carry more risk since HC David Fizdale is willing to roll with his entire second unit if they outplay the starters. Emmanuel Mudiay led that unit on Tuesday when the Knicks earned a 108-103 win over a competitive Magic squad. Mudiay tallied 19 points, 8 rebounds, and 3 assists over 31 minutes. Meanwhile, new acquisition Dennis Smith Jr. played just 21. The former is averaging a career-best 20.3 points per 36 minutes and seeing a 25.8% usage rate with the offense-starved Knicks. Mudiay’s usage rate is up to 30.4% over his last eight appearances, dating back to before he injured his shoulder. Thus, he’ll likely see a lot of work against the Cavs. They rank dead last in defensive rating and cough up the fourth-most FPPG (43.05) to PGs this season. Mudiay has the potential for 5.9x salary returns on DK per FantasyLabs.
Other guards to consider: James Harden, Ben Simmons, Jamal Murray, J.J. Redick, Darren Collison, Eric Gordon, Goran Dragic, D.J. Augustin
Best Forwards for February 28, 2019
Tobias Harris @ OKC ($7.3k DraftKings, $7.5k FanDuel)
The Sixers are the most-rested team coming into tonight’s six-game slate. But they will once again be without superstar center Joel Embiid (knee). That opens up a ton of usage for their supporting cast, including Tobias Harris. The All-Star snub led Philly with 29 points and 10 rebounds in a win over New Orleans on Monday. He also logged his most playing time (38:50) since joining the 76ers. OKC is allowing the eighth-most PPG (21.77) to SFs over the last 14 days, as Paul George has been asked to do so much on offense that he’s unable to lock down the opposition’s best wing. Harris averaged 21 PPG on 51% FG shooting over three meetings with the Thunder earlier this season and is starting to become the primary option with his new team, giving him similar potential at a diminished price tag. Harris has the best per-dollar rating of any player on FD tonight according to models on FantasyLabs.
Bojan Bogdanovic vs. MIN ($5.4k DraftKings, $6.0k FanDuel)
Surely but steadily, Bojan Bogdanovic has become a very reliable Cash play. He’s leading the Pacers’ starting lineup with a 26.3% usage rate and averaging 21.8 PPG. He’s also shooting 53.8% over his last 10 appearances. That rise in production has coincided with Victor Oladipo‘s season-ending injury, and Bogdanovic should continue to score tonight against Minnesota. The Timberwolves are on the second half of a B2B set on the road. Minnesota ranks 28th in opponents 3-point shooting (37.0%) and allows the fifth-most 3PTM (12.2) per game, while Bogdanovic is 24-for-59 (40.7%) from 3-point range this month. The Pacers are on a B2B set at home, but Bogdanovic averages 17.3 PPG and shoots a scorching 45.1% from deep over 11 appearances on no rest this season.
Will Barton vs. UTA ($5.0k DraftKings, $5.2k FanDuel)
Will Barton was strangely cold prior to Tuesday’s win over the Thunder. In that game, he dropped 23 points with 5 assists over 33 minutes in a starting role. With Gary Harris and Isaiah Thomas still on minutes restrictions, Barton has a clear path to heavy playing time tonight in a perceived tough matchup against the Jazz. Yet Utah ranks dead last in DvP against SFs over the last 14 days and is on the second half of a B2B set tonight. The Jazz edged the Nuggets 114-108 on Jan. 23, but Barton posted a 142 offensive rating with 22 points, 9 rebounds, and 5 assists over 30 minutes off the bench. That production should convince Nuggets HC Mike Malone to give the swingman more run in a key divisional game.
Other forwards to consider: Paul George, Kevin Love, Aaron Gordon, Justise Winslow, Thaddeus Young, Kelly Olynyk, Cedi Osman, Bam Adebayo
Best Centers for February 28, 2019
Nikola Vucevic vs. GSW ($9.3k DraftKings, $10.4k FanDuel)
With Nikola Jokic and Rudy Gobert set to tangle in Denver and Karl-Anthony Towns facing a stingy Pacers defense, Nikola Vucevic could emerge as the top-scoring center tonight. He’s facing a Warriors team that yields the third-most FPPG (51.08) to opposing centers over the last 14 days and has actually become worse at defending the paint with DeMarcus Cousins in the fold. Golden State edged Orlando 116-110 at home earlier this season but has been more vulnerable on the road. They notably fell in Miami just last night. Vucevic rocks a 28.2% usage rate and averages 20.8 PPG at home and went for 30 points, 12 rebounds, and 6 assists to carry Orlando in that close loss to the Dubs earlier this season.
Mitchell Robinson vs. CLE ($6.4k DraftKings, $7.4k FanDuel)
As long as DeAndre Jordan (ankle) misses another game, Mitchell Robinson will be worth using at this modest price tag on DraftKings. The rookie has been unleashed and produced a beastly 32 points, 28 rebounds, and 11 blocks over two appearances logging full minutes. He’s averaging a ridiculous 4.5 blocks per 36 minutes and faces a Cavs team that gives up the fourth-most BPG (5.6) this season. Cleveland also ranks dead last in opponent FG shooting (49.0%) and defensive rating. Thus, Robinson should get plenty of easy looks inside, especially with Tristan Thompson (foot) likely out.
Kelly Olynyk @ HOU ($4.9k DraftKings, $5.5k FanDuel)
With any luck, we’ll have some news from Heat beat writers as the team reloads for another tough game after edging the Warriors 126-125 last night. Here are some other intriguing plays to consider from the Heat roster in the meantime:
Goran Dragic ($4.4k, $4.1k) scored 27 points over 20 minutes, and that makes the cheap guard worth a look in GPP formats. Justise Winslow ($5.0k, $6.2k) missed just two games as a precautionary measure and returned with 12 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists, and 2 steals over 31 minutes Wednesday.
Yet both those guards (and Dwyane Wade) could be limited on zero days rest. Meanwhile, Kelly Olynyk ($4.9k, $5.5k) should be well rested and ready to log huge minutes once again. Olynyk was playing 27.4 MPG over six appearances leading up to last night and saw 29 minutes as a starter once Hassan Whiteside (hip) was ruled out. Olynyk matches up well against the small-ball Rockets and will become a staple in lineups along with Bam Adebayo ($4.0k, $4.8k) if Whiteside is ruled out.
Other centers to consider: Karl-Anthony Towns, Clint Capela, Steven Adams, Henry Ellenson