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Club de Golf Chapultepec is on tap this week for the WGC Mexico. It’s a 7,300-yard old-school course set just outside Mexico City. Built in 1921 and retouched in 1972, this track embodies the historic courses of Spain and hearkens back to the days of precision over power. This is a course that requires golfers to play for a specific side of a hole in order to access the usually tucked and potentially blocked-out pin. That’s due to the mature trees encroaching on every hole throughout the course.
While the bombers will have a field day playing at altitude — the ball will travel 8-9% further than normal — distance won’t carry the day; approach accuracy will. The small Poa greens undulate and present the normal Poa challenges. That’s true in the afternoon especially, as they get bumpier.
The Kikuyu grass fairways will help some and frustrate others, but, in short, look for in-form ball strikers at this track. Finally, this is a small-field WGC event, so everyone is slated for four rounds of play, assuming no WD.
- Strokes gained approach
- Long iron proximity
- Poa putters
- Performance at Riviera and WMPO
PGA DFS Picks
Top tier: $11.4k-$9.6k
Justin Thomas ($11.8k)
JT is lighting it up through his approaches this season and has been in contention several times already, narrowly missing a win. Thomas has also been a dominant DK points scorer with his elite distance and aggressive style, especially in no-cut formats. Look for JT to compete, as past years have seen in-form, top-of-the-market golfers in the hunt on Sunday. Look for JT to assemble two very low rounds this week and ride his hot approach game to another to snatch a win. He’s normally not one for the highest-priced golfer in the field, but Thomas is hard to resist, especially with his high rating in my model and his back-to-back top five finishes here. Model Rank: 3
Rory McIlroy ($11.1k)
Rory has shown very well early this season and, like JT above, has been in contention several times and put together some very low rounds in the process. His distance off the tee will allow him to be as aggressive as he wants throughout this week, and look for him to start early! Posting a 7th here in 2017, Rory is well suited for this track with his high ball flight, stellar long iron game and recently improved Poa putting. Again, I’m favoring the top of the market due to their track record at this event. Model Rank: 2
Tiger Woods ($9.5k)
Fresh off blistering Riviera for possibly the best performance of his career at that track, Tiger makes his way to Chapultepec ready for a crack at this classic course. I think this track will suit Woods nicely: his long irons have been great lately. With the altitude, he can focus on positioning and using his patented “Stinger” shot to navigate Chapultepec. Coming off a strong performance at a Kikuyu and Poa track, Tiger should be well adjusted. Look for him near the top of the leaderboard this week. Model Rank: 6
Others to consider: Rickie Fowler, fresh off his win at WMPO, should be ready for a run at this WGC field and ranks No. 1 in my model this week. Brooks Koepka is making his season debut.
Middle tier: $9.5k-$7.9k
Phil Mickelson ($9.3K)
Phil has been doing Phil things this season. He’s in strong form and coming to Chapultepec as the defending champion. Mickelson is a very strong Poa putter and well adjusted to the surfaces having just played two Poa tracks, securing the win on one. Phil’s game is in great shape this season, and we’re now able to spot his crafted calves during practice rounds. In short, he’ll be a threat to repeat. Also consider, Phil loves Kikuyu grass and knows how important positioning is at this track. Model Rank: 43
Hideki Matsuyama ($9k)
Masuyama is in great form, a positive Poa putter, and likely one of the most popular plays tagged at Fanshare this week. “Deki” is one of the best ball strikers and should have no challenge positioning himself well throughout this course. That said, Deki doesn’t have the greatest course history here: a DNS last year and a 25th the previous year. I expect him to shake off the past and put on a good showing this week. Model Rank: 28
Jordan Spieth ($8.8k)
Spieth just keeps inching closer to form; granted, he’s had some bad rounds mixed in, but he is still a proven winner. Spieth comes into Chapultepec having previously posted a 12th and a 14th here and clearly enjoys the strategic nature of this course. I am betting the comfy confines of Chapultepec will bring out the best in him as he posts four solid rounds this week, ending with a top 10. Model Rank: 36
Tommy Fleetwood ($8.2k)
With a top 15 and a second place to his name at Chapultepec, Tommy is obviously comfortable at this track and playing at elevation. Itching for a win these past couple years, Tommy enjoys the strong field and stiff competition WGCs bring. Look for him to post another top-notch performance this week after conditioning himself on the Poa greens of Genesis last week. Model Rank: 42
Others to consider: Xander Schauffele, Marc Leishman, Paul Casey, Webb Simpson
Value tier: $7.8k and lower
Matthew Fitzpatrick ($7.6k)
Fitzpatrick has gained over four strokes in his two outings at this venue, likely due to his well-suited game and experience on the Euro tour. A clean and tidy ball striker who is very capable of going low, Fitzpatrick boasts great long irons and two years of experience. He’ll look to improve on his previous finishes of 16th and 30th. Model Rank: 56
Tyrell Hatton ($7.3k)
Hatton spent the early part of his season on the PGA Tour for the first time in his career. That could pay dividends this week as he should be well acclimated to Poa greens. Likely the most popular golfer in the price range and certainly one of the heaviest tagged golfers at Fanshare this week, Hatton has posted back to back top 10s at this track and contended last year, finishing third. He’s certainly a core part of cash lineup construction, but a case can be made for a fade in GPP simply due to popularity. Model Rank: 7
Russell Knox ($6.8k)
Coming off a couple of top 20 performances on similar surfaces, Knox appears back in contending form early this season. Knox is a strong ball striker who won’t be winning any long drive contests but can navigate a golf course with the best of them. Likely low owned with upside, Knox posted a 70th here in 2017 and didn’t play in 2018. I am willing to give him a pass and roster some GPP shares this week given his recent form. Comfortable Model Rank: 7
Others to consider: Lee Westwood, Joost Luiten, Henrik Stenson, Louis Oosthuizen
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