DraftKings Daily Fantasy Golf Picks & Plays for The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
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Pebble Beach Golf Links is the flagship course this week, hosting two of the four rounds. Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula will each host a single round. Golfers and their amateur partners will play 54 holes (one round on each course) with a cut being made on Saturday night to bring the field down to the top 60 (with ties). They go on to play a final round Sunday on Pebble Beach.
The courses are all shorter than 7,000 yards but differ in their offerings. Monterey is by far the easiest of the bunch, where players will need to score during their singular round. Spyglass is technical and a bit sequestered from the ocean compared to the other two courses. It’s a tough test with tiny greens that will have golfers prioritizing fairways over distance.
Then, Pebble Beach is so iconic it scarcely needs an introduction or analysis. But for the sake of the article, Pebble will be in prep mode for the US Open and, as a result, a bit more difficult than usual if I had to venture a guess. Look for slightly longer rough than normal to exacerbate the tight fairways and wind-influenced shots.
The abridged version of the tournament summary is this — be patient and consistent. We’re looking at a carousel of courses and a bevy of amateur golfers who toss a wrench into the pre-shot routines of the pros. Since we have so much variance with the three-course rotation and 54-hole cut this week, I am going to focus more on the number of holes by distance. Check out the chart below.
As you can see, par-5 scoring is crucial to DK scoring success here, as well as taking advantage of the numerous shorter and more technical par 4’s.
The courses are not long. Despite the success bombers have had here, you don’t need to be a big hitter. On the contrary, it’s all about the approach game and putting.
While the chart above is only for the Pebble Beach course, it gives a good idea of where you should be looking this week in terms of evaluating players. And since this is a Pro-Am — with higher-than-usual variance historically — it is best to exercise caution with your bankroll.
- Par 4 Scoring
- Par 5 Scoring
- Poa Putters
- Strokes Gained Approach
PGA DFS Picks
Top tier: $11.4k-$9.6k
Dustin Johnson ($11.4k)
DJ is coming back across the world to tee it up with his usual Am partner, Wayne Gretzky. Holding the best course history of anyone in the field this week, DJ is a titan here despite being edged out for the win last year. At Pebble Beach, DJ’s distance and high ball flight allow him to do what others can’t around these shorter tracks. More intangibly, Johnson’s calm and smooth approach help with the long rounds and partner play. Look for DJ near the top of the leaderboard this week. After his win last week at the Saudi International, he is ready to hunt on familiar grounds. Model Rank: 1
Tony Finau ($10.6k)
Tony is coming off a tough week. He’s now missed four consecutive cuts at the WMPO. Despite struggling on approach a bit last week, Finau could well find Pebble and this mixed-up event structure make for an ideal bounce-back spot. Having posted a 23rd two years ago in his only appearance, Tony will be familiar with the layout. Much like DJ above, Finau’s super high ball flight and distance allow him to approach these courses a bit differently. He has done all right on Poa surfaces. But above all, the weather and slow greens should really help him. Model Rank: 29
Phil Mickelson ($9.6k)
After Phil’s disappointing week in the desert, which saw him very erratic in his stats, I am still willing to overlook one really bad round and focus on this strong start to the season for the lefty. Pebble is a good spot for Phil, especially this week if the weather stays a bit rough. Phil knows this place well, putts well on Poa, and shouldn’t have any trouble with the distance. Look for Phil as a GPP play in a balanced lineup. Model Rank: 14
Others to consider: Jason Day is very much in play this week, has played well on this track, and is a strong Poa putter in good form. Then, Tommy Fleetwood is the interesting player up top, new to this event but with a world-class game. Finally, Patrick Cantlay seems well suited for this track, but my concerns center around how particular his shot routine is given the amateurs and long rounds.
Middle tier: $9.5k-$7.9k
Jordan Spieth ($9.5K)
The last time we saw Jordan Spieth, he was lighting it up during the first round, prior to fizzling out and reverting to his current struggles. I was pleased to see signs of life though. The world’s best don’t stay off their games forever. Spieth has a stellar track record here, and the courses suit his style of play. That is, they won’t force him into muscling his drives. Spieth is a strong Poa putter and has plenty of experience with slow play; thus, the formatting and long rounds shouldn’t weigh on his game too heavily. At this price point in this field, Spieth feels a bit too cheap. It’s an ideal spot to jump back on Spieth. Model Rank: 24
Sungjae Im ($8.4k)
The kid from Jeju Island has been killing it so far on tour this season. Putting some solid weeks together this past month, Im is showing the tour he is a legit threat to notch a win in his rookie season. With a strong approach game and plenty of length off the tee, Im is well set up for success on tour. His positive putting splits recently aren’t going to hurt anything either. Im has shown well in Cali once already this year and should be well adjusted for the conditions this week given where he is from: he grew up playing in the wind all the time. The only concern for Im this week is that he is on his fifth consecutive week of play, but I am siding with youth. He should be good to go for this week. Model Rank: 38
J.B. Holmes ($8.2k)
In his 10 AT&T Pro-Am outings, J.B. Holmes has missed the cut only twice while posting four top 25s, including a fifth, a 10th, and an 11th. Holmes has long been a fixture during the West Coast swing. He’s a good Poa putter with a ton of power and a high ball flight to access some of the tighter pins, or at least be a lot closer to the green when missing the fairway. Holmes, much like Finau and DJ above, should thrive in the expected soft conditions this week. Fresh off his 26th at the WMPO, look for J.B. to get aggressive and post another strong result. Model Rank: 2
Others to consider: Chez Reavie, Adam Scott, Jason Kokrak, Brandt Snedeker, Shane Lowry, Matthew Fitzpatrick
Value tier: $7.8k and lower
Russell Henley ($7.6k)
Coming in hot off his strong showing at WMPO, Henley seems to have found a bit of his game again, and just in time too. Henley has shown really well at shorter coastal tracks throughout his career, including this spot. The 29-year-old is looking to jumpstart his season, and Pebble should be just the track. Having posted decent results here in the past and with the weather predicted to deteriorate through the week, Henley should be right at home. Look for him to surge up the leaderboard. Model Rank: 11
Kevin Streelman ($7.3k)
This is our course history play of the week: Streelman has the T2G game necessary for this track, as he usually finds more fairways than he misses and also happens to be a decent Poa putter. That’s a strong combo for this event to go along with his decent form and string of made cuts. What’s more, Streelman has shown quite a bit of consistency at this incredibly high-variance event. Use him to round out your lineups. Model Rank: 6
Julian Etulain ($6.1k)
Our flier pick of the week, Etulain is also remarkably cheap for what he brings to the table. The up-and-comer brings a ton of length off the tee, and when his irons are on, he can produce some highlight-worthy clips. Streaky but consistent as of late, Etulain will look to use his Poa putting skills to help drop a few putts and keep him on the right side of the cut. Julian has also shown ability on the West Coast in his young career, posting some of his best results on this side of the Mississippi. If you need a cheap golfer with upside who should A) make the cut and B) help you cram in the studs up top, Julian is your man. Model Rank: 31
Others to consider: Doug Ghim, Davis Love III, James Hahn, Scott Brown, Hunter Mahan
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