Super Bowl LIII is set for Sunday, Feb 3. It will pit the Los Angeles Rams against the New England Patriots at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Watch for a full breakdown of the matchup later this week. For now, here is an early look at the sports betting lines and props to consider at DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook.
Keep an eye on injury news right up until kick off since things can change quickly in the NFL. Please note any player listed as questionable may see limited action or not suit up at all if he doesn’t respond well in warm-ups.
Super Bowl 53 Early Betting Odds
New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Rams (in Atlanta)
Super Bowl Lines Breakdown
The Rams opened as one-point favorites on most sportsbooks, but that lasted less than 10 minutes. Bettors hammered the Patriots when they were getting a point. And as of Tuesday afternoon, the line is up to New England (-2) on most books and -2.5 in some spots.
For the purposes of prop bets, the Rams are officially considered to be the home team.
Tom Brady is 5-3 in Super Bowl appearances. Of course, his resumé speaks for itself. The 41-year-old is the favorite to win Super Bowl MVP according to DraftKings Sportsbook at +110. Rams QB Jared Goff (+235) is next in line, followed by Todd Gurley (+1400), Aaron Donald (+1800), Sony Michel (+2000), and C.J. Anderson (+2200).
All eight Super Bowls featuring Brady and Bill Belichick have been decided by one score. On a related note, they’re 3-5 against the spread (ATS) in those games. Brady is averaging 430.3 passing YPG with a 103.4 passer rating over his last three SB appearances.
The Rams were 1-5-1 ATS when facing playoff teams during the regular season. Los Angeles did cover with an eight-point win over Dallas in the Divisional Round and stunned the Saints in overtime last Sunday thanks in part to an egregious no-call. The Rams are now 4-0 ATS over their last four games.
The Rams last reached the Super Bowl in 2002, when they lost as 14-point favorites against Brady and the Patriots. The only other time Brady and the Pats were Super Bowl underdogs was in 2014 against Seattle (a Pick ‘Em game). Last year, they were 4.5-point favorites against the Eagles.
Moneylines and betting trends
New England is ranging between -110 and -150 on the Moneyline, with FanDuel offering an appealing -126 on the Pats clinching a sixth championship. The Rams are between +100 and +120 on the Moneyline.
According to The Action Network, over 80 percent of bets and 90 percent of money has been placed on the Pats to this point. Since the crowd often follows the money, that dramatic of a skew toward the Patriots could create something of a home-field advantage in Atlanta.
It’s worth noting that the Patriots have been feeding off perceived disrespect to a degree. They saw less than half the tickets in both wins over the Chargers and Chiefs, marking the first time Brady saw less than half of bets in consecutive games since 2007.
If the Rams become full three-point underdogs, sharps may start to take the underdogs. While L.A. didn’t look as strong during its playoff run, the Rams did navigate the tougher conference. They also boast objectively better talent at most positions than the Patriots.
Super Bowl Over/Under Breakdown
The Over opened at a historical 58 points and crept up to 59 points in some places with the public swept away in the Patriots shootout win over the Chiefs.
It was since been bet down to 57.5 by Monday night. That is still higher than the previous highest total (57) in Super Bowl LI, which went Over when the Pats defeated the Falcons, 34-26.
While seven of the last 10 Super Bowls have gone Over, the Rams are 4-2-1 against the Under over their last seven games. The Patriots are 8-3 against the Under their last 11 games. What’s more, the fast turf at Mercedes-Benz Stadium will make it difficult to stop either offense, and the Rams averaged 35 PPG in games played under retractable roofs or domes.
In taking the Under, the sharps are likely betting on Belichick’s ability to game plan against Sean McVay’s deceptive offense and avoid the same pitfalls that befell the Cowboys’ and Saints’ stout defenses in recent games. The strength of both teams’ rushing attacks could also be a factor in what could be a slower game than anticipated.
Parlays involving the Over are given greater odds at this point, but that could change if the total continues to creep downward.
Super Bowl Prop Bet Breakdown
The Super Bowl always brings to light strange and obscure prop bets. We’ll stick to the props related to players and game scenarios that involve more than the figurative (or literal) flip of a coin.
Odds for MVP are more extreme on FanDuel Sportsbook, where James White (+2500) and Julian Edelman (+5000) offer longshot appeal. Taking White (+160) or Rex Burkhead (+160) to score a TD is worth consideration.
Bets are also available to take either QB to top 400 passing yards (+275) or to bet on a FG or safety (+165) as the first score rather than a touchdown. Betting on overtime (+650) offers some value.
On BetStars, bettors can take a first TD scorer, anytime TD scorer, or the last TD scorer. Todd Gurley (+650) and Sony Michel (+650) lead the list of first and last (+600) TD scorers. Then, James White (+900) could quite feasibly cash as the final TD scorer if the Patriots are in comeback mode as they were against the Falcons two seasons ago.
The Patriots’ team total is 30 while the Rams are at 27.5 points. It is a much safer bet taking the experienced Pats to top 30 in a third consecutive playoff game. Despite its modest talent, Belichick’s defense is capable of baffling an inexperienced QB in Goff.
Brady’s passing total is around 299 yards, and Goff is around 285 on most sportsbooks. Again, Brady is averaging over 430 passing YPG over his last three SB appearances, and the Rams secondary is vulnerable.
Finally, Michel’s rushing total is at 80.5 yards per 888sportsbook, and more prop bets will be set in the upcoming days.