The Week 16 NFL schedule includes a premier Sunday night matchup between the Chiefs and Seahawks. For this game and every other primetime contest, we’ll break down the sports betting lines and recommend where to place your bets at DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook.
Keep an eye on injury news right up until kick off since things can change quickly in the NFL. Any player listed as questionable may see limited action or not suit up at all if they don’t respond well in warm-ups.
Week 16 Sunday Night Football Betting Odds
Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks
NFL Week 16 Sunday Night Football Breakdown
Coming off a surprising loss at San Francisco, the surging Seahawks return home to what is assuredly going to be a loud CenturyLink Field on Sunday night. Seattle is allowing 19.6 PPG over six home games this season, with its sole losses coming against Super Bowl contenders in the Rams and Chargers. The Chiefs are obviously on that level and will be motivated to try and regain the top seed in the AFC West with a tough road win.
On offense, the run-heavy Seahawks should have no issues moving the ball against a Chiefs team that ranks dead last in DVOA rush defense and allows a league-high 5.0 YPC this season. KC has also allowed the most receiving yards (876) and 18 total TDs to opposing backs. And while the Chiefs defense has been solid at home, they’re yielding a whopping 33.9 PPG on the road this season.
This is a great spot for Seattle’s rushing attack. Chris Carson will once again be locked into feature back duties if rookie Rashaad Penny (knee) is inactive. Carson has averaged 25 touches and 133 rushing YPG over Penny’s three absences this season and is one of the best Cash options from this game for DFS lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel. Veteran RB Mike Davis has also handled double-digit touches in each of Penny’s absences. Davis is a candidate to handle third-down work with Carson getting a breather.
Russell Wilson has seen very low volume as a passer but has been incredibly efficient with a 111.6 passer rating this season. The Chiefs have faced the second-fewest rush attempts (34) from opposing QBs this year but have given up four rushing TDs in that sample size. Of course, Wilson is an elite dual threat. His volume will likely be elevated against a KC team that’s faced an AFC-high 40.7 pass attempts per game.
The Chiefs are solid at CB but have been hemorrhaging points to interior receivers. Their best interior CB, Kendall Fuller, is expected to play with a cast on his hand this Sunday.
Doug Baldwin appears to be healthy for the first time all season, and Wilson averages 9.2 more FPPG when Baldwin is active. Baldwin and Tyler Lockett should rotate slots in the slot and give the Chiefs’ below-average secondary fits. Lockett leads the Seahawks in air yards, and the Chiefs have given up the most completions of 20-plus yards (61) this season. Wilson also leads the NFC in passer rating (126.5) on such deep throws.
Behind those two stud WRs, the Seahawks passing offense is a crapshoot. It features David Moore, a big-bodied blocker on the outside who is hardly seeing any looks despite playing approximately 75 percent of offensive snaps.
Seahawks TEs Ed Dickson and Nick Vannett are in a value-sapping timeshare, rendering them irrelevant in DFS contests. Yet you can bank on Wilson using his full arsenal of weapons in some fashion. He’ll have to keep pace with the high-powered Chiefs.
Back to the Chiefs: Andy Reid’s offense remains a step ahead of the competition, allowing KC to script and install plays ahead of time for consistent success on the road.
MVP candidate Patrick Mahomes owns an incredible 28:6 TD:INT ratio and averages 21.6 rushing YPG on the road this season. The Seahawks are allowing a modest 62.4% completion rate with a 9:5 TD:INT ratio over six home games but have yielded top-15 fantasy scores to seven of the last eight QBs they’ve faced.
With Tyreek Hill (foot) a bit limited, Travis Kelce has led the Chiefs with 46 targets over their last four games. He got over the hump with a productive game against a Chargers team that’s had his number in the past. Now, he earns a plus draw against Seattle’s banged-up defense.
Missing LB K.J. Wright virtually the entire year, Seattle lost LB Mychal Kendricks (leg) and SS Bradley McDougald (knee) a couple weeks ago and were promptly shredded by San Francisco’s TEs.
Hill should be in better shape after resting since last Thursday. He also earns a plus matchup against a Seahawks team that ranks 28th in DVOA pass defense against No. 1 receivers. Seattle’s plus-sized CB duo of Shaquill Griffin and Tre Flowers are a bit too big to hang with one of the fastest WRs in the league. Seattle’s slot CB Justin Coleman runs a 4.53 40-yard dash, while Hill runs 4.29 and has logged 22 of his 32 career TDs on the road.
While Kelce and Hill should dominate looks, there is still upside to be found in tertiary WR Chris Conley and secondary TE Demetrius Harris. With Sammy Watkins (foot) fading into the background, Demarcus Robinson has become a rotational player. New acquisition Kelvin Benjamin played 12 snaps last Thursday and could be used as a situational threat.
Seattle also struggles in run defense and is surprisingly yielding 5.2 YPC at home. The Chiefs expect to have Spencer Ware (hamstring) active, but Damien Williams has flashed incredible upside and seems more likely to fill Kareem Hunt‘s role going forward. Ware’s presence should relegate Darrel Williams to the bench. Damien Williams or Ware will have the benefit of running behind an offensive line that ranks second in the NFL in power run blocking.
NFL Week 16 Picks
Neither defense seems capable of consistently stopping the opposing offense at critical points. This makes the Over (55) a justifiably popular bet.
The Chiefs are first in yards per drive, second in points per drive and drive success rate (DSR) this season. Defensively, KC allows the most yards per drive and ranks dead last in DSR.
While the Seahawks play at the fifth-slowest pace, they’re ninth in points per drive. Seattle plays at the eighth-fastest pace when trailing by 7-plus points. The Chiefs frequently jump out to early leads thanks to Reid’s incredible game-planning on offense. KC is first in points per red zone trip, and Seattle is eighth. The Chiefs are also hapless in red zone defense, yielding the fifth-most points (5.57) per trip.
Bets are coming down heavily on the Over, which is hardly a surprise with the Chiefs taking the field. However, the point spread is far more divided. Seattle is 4-1-1 against the spread at home this season and has won three in a row straight up at “the Link.” As impressive as the Chiefs have been all year, they have a reputation for fading down the stretch and in tough playoff-like atmospheres.
Because Seattle is playing at home and the Chiefs defense seems particularly ill-equipped to stop a run-heavy attack led by Wilson, we’re taking the Seahawks (+2.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook) and the points.
This is also a prime opportunity to take the Seahawks as part of a teaser which would push them through the key numbers of 3 and 7, up to +8.5.