Week 16 NFL DFS DraftKings Picks & Lineups
Fifteen weeks of the season are in the books, and we’re back with a full slate of NFL daily fantasy sports games at DraftKings for Week 16. We’re listing our NFL DFS best picks at quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end to target in Cash and GPP lineups.
If you’re out in your season-long leagues, our condolences; a few of us know the feeling. Thank goodness that we have some DFS to keep our seasons alive by proxy.
Please note the advice below is relevant for daily fantasy purposes and slanted toward tournaments. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price and lots of other factors. This is important to consider when constructing a roster. Injuries can also play a huge role in NFL DFS on a weekly basis. So always, always check the injury reports when playing an NFL slate.
DraftKings DFS Tournaments
Best Week 16 NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks
Tom Brady vs. BUF ($5.9k DraftKings)
Even if it isn’t a must-win game, New England sure feels like they’re in a spot where they ought to illustrate they can still compete for a Super Bowl this year. With Josh Gordon’s departure, Tom Brady is tasked this week with showing one thing: it doesn’t matter. He’s shown previously that he can work with very little. He’s the type of quarterback who makes a receiver, instead of the other way around. That is all to say, this week feels more important than a Week 15 game should feel for a Patriots team headed to the playoffs.
There are reasons people will run away from Brady. Buffalo ranks fourth in DVOA versus the pass, which makes this matchup a tough one. Gordon will be missing. And, of course, the general instability of the organization seems to warrant concern.
But Brady threw for over 300 yards against the Bills earlier this season. And he still has Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman, not to mention several other players with whom he’s clicked at one time or another. And he’s Tom Brady. You can write him off if you want to, but that lesson has been learned before. Brady is viable across formats with the Patriots’ implied total of over 28.
Josh Allen @ NE ($5.8k DraftKings)
Now that I’m off my soapbox, I present a less polarizing option: Josh Allen. The Bills starter has excelled at times and floundered at others. But the Patriots are middle of the pack against QBs (18th in DVOA versus the pass), and Allen has translated his athleticism into ground yards with three consecutive games of 99 yards or more, that is, before last week’s 16 rushing yards. The Pats will seek to mirror what the Lions did against Allen, but there’s real upside here. Allen is a strong leverage play in GPPs, especially if you are fading the Pats in this one.
Aaron Rodgers @ NYJ ($6.3k DraftKings)
Speaking of narratives, Aaron Rodgers has a pretty good one. After all, you can’t say you want to be a better leader and then not win a game on the road in New York, right? Well, the Jets are not a good football team, and Vegas agrees, having the Packers at -3 with an implied total of 24.8. That’s way closer than it would’ve been if there remained any stability in Green Bay. But that also implies what Rodgers — similar to his co-future Hall of Famer Brady—is tasked with this week. At $6.3k, he offers a lot of upside if he can get Green Bay to finish off the season on a positive note. Last week, Rodgers threw the ball 42 times. That’s his second-highest mark since early November.
Cash Game Options: Nick Foles, Dak Prescott, Taylor Heinicke, Andrew Luck, Kirk Cousins
Best Week 16 NFL DFS GPP Running Backs
Kalen Ballage vs. JAX ($3.7 DraftKings)
The Jags have a good defense, seventh in DVOA versus the run and fifth overall. But the Jags were eliminated from playoff contention two weeks ago when they allowed Derrick Henry to rush for four touchdowns and more than 200 yards. Miami’s Kalen Ballage will handle a good amount of carries given Frank Gore’s move to IR. Last week, he racked up 112 yards on 12 carries, while breaking off a 75-yard touchdown, all against the Minnesota Vikings. We haven’t seen much from him this season, but you should expect to see a lot more. He provides a ton of upside at this salary tier.
Tevin Coleman @ GB ($4.8 DraftKings)
The Falcons and Panthers are all-but-eliminated from the playoffs (the former being 100 percent eliminated from the playoffs). Bring on the garbage accolades. Last week, Tevin Coleman was in this very spot on our list, and he delivered with a 23.5-point performance over at DraftKings. This week, his salary has increased just shy of 10 percent, and he’ll take on a Panthers defense that is slightly above average against the rush (DVOA). Coleman is in a contract year, and he’s clearly looking to finish strong for himself since the team won’t go further than the regular season. The Falcons are -3.5 in the spread and should be able to handle a Carolina team sans Cam Newton, who has been shut down for the season.
Ezekiel Elliott vs. TB ($9.0 DraftKings)
He’s expensive, but can you really afford to fade him? Elliott faces the Bucs this week, and Tampa ranks second-to-last in DVOA versus the run. With plenty of deficiencies in the Cowboys passing game, Elliott remains their best shot at winning. But at -7, the Cowboys are pretty safe favorites at home in this one. Elliott, who has 20 or more carries in four of the Cowboys’ past five games, will remain the focal point of this offense, which carries an implied total of 27.3 points.
Cash Game Options: Elijah McGuire, Jamaal Williams, Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, David Johnson
Best Week 16 NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers
Robert Woods @ ARI ($6.6 DraftKings)
The Rams offense doesn’t look nearly as potent nowadays, but the pieces are still largely there. And through it all, Robert Woods has been a model of consistency, never failing to break into double-digit DraftKings points since Week 1. This week, Patrick Peterson may shadow Brandin Cooks, leaving Woods to take on an expanded role. Even if he doesn’t, Peterson will likely focus more on Cooks than Woods, who offers less explosiveness. But make no mistake, Woods has upside in this one. The Rams have an implied total of 29.3, and who knows how involved Todd Gurley will be. After all, this should be an easy win. Woods has double-digit target potential and a high floor if you’re interested in playing him in Cash games as well.
Davante Adams @ NYJ ($8.5 DraftKings)
Overall against wide receivers, the Jets are slightly below average. And against WR1, they rank 23rd in DVOA. I like Rodgers this weekend for the narrative, and there’s a trickle-down effect to Davante Adams. After all, these two are the building blocks of the Packers after Mike McCarthy. With Rodgers still intent on competing, Adams provides upside, even at this salary. He’s scored double-digit DraftKings points in every game this season, and he’s scored at least 20 in six of his last eight games (while also scoring more than 30 DraftKings points on a pair of occasions). The Packers may be out of the playoffs, but that doesn’t really seem to be an issue thanks to the veteran quarterback. Fire away on this Packers offense against an exploitable Jets club.
T.Y. Hilton vs. NYG ($7.1 DraftKings)
Andrew Luck looks great this season, and lately, we’ve seen that rub off on Hilton. The speedster has been the leading position player in this passing game after Eric Ebron took on that role early in the season. Over his past five games, Hilton has surpassed 100 yards three times and hasn’t failed to achieve at least 77 receiving yards in that span. He also will face a defense ranking dead last in DVOA versus WR1. Hilton is a high-upside option in this one, even if the Colts are nine-point favorites. Vegas still thinks they score more than 28 (based on implied total), thanks to the gunslinger Luck. That makes Hilton even more appealing. Just know you and a good amount of the field will be on him.
Chris Hogan vs. BUF ($3.3k DraftKings)
With Josh Gordon done for the season, Chris Hogan’s once lost campaign seems restored. The two touchdowns he caught last week didn’t hurt either. The Pats still have plenty of playmakers in this offense, and that will lead to limited opportunities for the veteran wideout. But the Bills rank 26th in DVOA versus WR2, and that’s where Hogan should line up (opposite Julian Edelman, in place of Gordon). Like the aforementioned Adams, Hogan’s appeal comes from the narrative I hope will drive his quarterback. But he also has a strong matchup, and those stars around him? They should steal the attention of the best this Bills defense has to offer. Take the upside at this salary.
Robby Anderson vs. GB ($4.5k DraftKings)
While Sam Darnold has struggled more often than not this season, he and Anderson have really meshed as of late. Over the past two weeks, they’ve connected for 172 yards and two touchdowns. This week, they’ll seek to build on that against a Green Bay team ranking 22nd in DVOA versus WR1 and 24th in DVOA versus the pass. Anderson has explosive speed, as well as opportunity thanks to a limited number of healthy wideouts. If Darnold can work the ball to him, he has upside without the hefty price tag.
Cash Game Options: Alshon Jeffery, DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper, Michael Thomas, Dante Pettis, Adam Humphries, Adam Thielen, Isaiah McKenzie, Julian Edelman, Julio Jones
Best Week 16 NFL DFS Tight Ends
Zach Ertz vs. HOU ($5.9 DraftKings)
The Eagles are attempting to claw their way back into the playoffs, and they’ll have to face a tough Texans team to get there. Fortunately for Philly, the Texans rank fourth-to-last in DVOA versus tight end Zach Ertz seems well underpriced here, as he is absolutely the best offensive player on this team. A perennial challenger to Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce as the league’s best tight end, Ertz has the highest tight-end ceiling this week flat out.
Austin Hooper @ CAR ($3.7 DraftKings)
Atlanta is out of playoff contention, which could open up more opportunities for guys like Austin Hooper. The tight end has had marginal success as a Falcon, but he’s in the latter stages of his contract and, like teammate Tevin Coleman, will likely seek to make the most of what’s left of this forgettable season. The Panthers rank 28th in DVOA versus the tight end, while the Falcons stand at slight favorites with an implied total of 23. Hooper’s upside is limited, given his position and role in the offense, but at this price, it may not matter.
Cash Game Options: Eric Ebron, Evan Engram, Rob Gronkowski, George Kittle, Christopher Herndon
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