Week 13 NFL DFS Picks | Best Bets For DraftKings And FanDuel Lineups

Written By Nate Weitzer on December 4, 2021

We’re into December and heading down the home stretch of the NFL’s first 17-game season. Week 13 brings another full slate of Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) contests offered on DraftKings and FanDuel with big prize pools and exciting formats such as Best Ball and Showdown mode.

Whether you’re located in a state that won’t allow you to wager on NFL odds or just prefer DFS to traditional sports betting, there are many contests to choose from each and every week of the season. Here, we’ll provide you with lineup advice for a variety of contests including cash games (i.e. 50/50, H2H, and Double-Up) and GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool) tournaments.

NFL WEEK 13 DAILY FANTASY | BEST CONTESTS AT DRAFTKINGS & FANDUEL

Week 13 NFL DFS Lineup Picks | Predictions For DraftKings & FanDuel

Whether you play at DraftKings or FanDuel, we want to make the process of choosing your lineup as simple as possible. Below, we have suggestions for several different DFS contest types along with prices for each player from both sites.

Quarterback

Best Play: Justin Herbert (DK: $6,700, FD: $8,200)

Teams have been able to limit Herbert’s production by playing drop coverage and forcing the sophomore to take underneath throws. He’s starting to adjust against that scheme and managed good production (28-for-44, 303 yards, 2 TD) against an elite Broncos secondary before slipping up with two critical interceptions.

Now, he’ll face a Bengals defense that looks to stop the run first and foremost, and ranks 19th in DVOA pass defense. Cincy is giving up 7.9 yards per attempt and a 7:3 TD:INT ratio to visiting QBs. Herbert blew up in a similar matchup against the Browns in Week 5 and game flow could work in his favor if Joe Mixon plows right through the Chargers’ 32nd-ranked run defense.

Value Play: Ben Roethlisberger (DK: $5,000, FD: $6,500)

It doesn’t get much cheaper to take a future Hall of Fame QB in a decent spot. The Steelers host the Ravens in a critical AFC North showdown and Big Ben is capable of parsing up an injury-riddled secondary even though he’s hobbled himself at age 39.

Roethlisberger attempted 51 passes (completing 36 for 266 yards) in his last game against Baltimore and averages 299.6 passing YPG with an 8:2 TD:INT ratio in his last five starts against the Ravens. Pittsburgh’s rushing attack is non-existent and that ensures good volume for the aging QB.

GPP Play: Derek Carr (DK: $6,000, FD: $7,500)

The Raiders have been a boom-bust team all season and Carr is posting awful splits in losses. Yet he’s averaging 373.3 passing YPG with a 68.2% completion rate and 11:3 TD:INT ratio over six wins and Vegas (-2.5) should be able to handle business against a bad Washington defense.

The WFT is coughing up the third-most passing YPG (266.6) and ranks 30th in DVOA pass defense with the eighth-highest lowest sack rate (5.3%) on the season. Now playing without Chase Young (ACL) and Montez Sweat (jaw), the WFT will have trouble pressuring Carr and he’s been lethal on deep passes when given time.

Fade: Jalen Hurts (DK: $7,000, FD: $8,000)

While he should improve from the worst passing performance of his young career, Hurts is not a preferred play in a projected low-scoring affair at the Jets. Robert Saleh’s defense has produced 15 sacks over five home games and been slightly less vulnerable with an 8:3 TD:INT ratio from opposing QBs at home this season. Hurts is reportedly dealing with an ankle injury that could impact his ability to run against a team that’s given up the second-fewest rushing yards (96) to his position.

Running Back

Best Play: Joe Mixon (DK: $8,100, FD: $9,400)

The Chargers have the worst run defense in football, and it’s not particularly close. On the road, the Bolts are yielding 4.9 YPC and Mixon is averaging 91.2 rushing YPG at a 4.8 YPC at home this season. He’s coming off a huge 28-165-2TD line against a good Steelers run defense and is now third in the NFL in carries (208), rushing yards (924), and TDs (13). He’s also handled an absurd 12 red zone touches over Cincy’s past two wins.

Value Play: Jamaal Williams (DK: $5,400, FD: $6,500)

D’Andre Swift (shoulder) is likely out multiple weeks and that leaves Jamaal Williams as the lead back for a Lions team that’s averaging a solid 20.9 PPG at home and producing 5.8 YPC over their last three games. The Vikings rank 29th in DVOA rush defense and allow 5.0 YPC while coughing up eight rushing TDs and 29.5 PPG over six road games. Williams has a great floor in this matchup for his price tag.

GPP Play: Elijah Mitchell (DK: $6,000, FD: $7,600)

Despite missing most of the week of practice with a finger injury, Mitchell saw workhorse usage with 32 touches and 168 yards in a 34-28 win over the Vikings last Sunday. He should be good to go for a cupcake matchup against backsliding Seattle, which has given up the most receptions (82) and receiving yards (787) to RBs this season due to a zone-based defensive scheme.

Mitchell is averaging 5.1 yards per touch and ranks sixth among RBs in opportunity share (76.3%), a number that could rise with the Niners missing Deebo Samuel (groin) and looking to run the ball even more often.

Fade: Najee Harris (DK: $7,700, FD: $8,000)

The Ravens aren’t giving up much production on the ground and are holding opponents to 4.0 YPC on the road this season. Their defensive line leads the NFL in adjusted line yards (3.15) per play according to Football Outsiders. Harris handled a massive workload early in his rookie season and has slowed with 57.3 rushing YPG at a 3.4 YPC clip over his last four outings. Pittsburgh’s offensive line is unlikely to win this battle in the trenches.

Wide Receiver

Best Play: Justin Jefferson (DK: $8,200, FD: $8,000)

The Lions are facing the lowest pass-play rate (50.8%) in the NFL because they can’t stop the run, yet they’re giving up the most yards per completion (7.9) and generating almost no pressure with the fourth-lowest sack rate (4.5%) this season. Kirk Cousins should feel very comfortable under the dome in Detroit after a tough test in San Francisco last week.

Jefferson has been his best downfield threat with a 42.2% Air Yards share and the most deep targets (23) among all WRs. He caught 7 of 8 targets for 122 yards in a win over Detroit in Week 5 and has an excellent floor-ceiling combination in the rematch.

Value Play: Odell Beckham Jr. (DK: $5,500, FD: $6,000)

If it sounds like Odell Beckham Jr. will be limited by a hip pointer, Van Jefferson ($5,300; $5,800) could easily step up as a great value in this matchup. The Rams (-13) are expected to snap their 3-game skid with an emphatic win over the hapless Jaguars and an easy win would provide ample opportunities to get their new WR reps in the offense.

Beckham was peppered with 10 targets in Green Bay last Sunday, catching five for 81 yards and a TD. He played on 98% of snaps after logging a 27% snap-rate in his Rams debut before their bye. Now he could take off against the league’s worst-rated pass defense.

GPP Play: D.K. Metcalf (DK: $6,700, FD: $7,300)

After he was barely targeted in another bad loss, Metcalf should get the “squeaky wheel” treatment in a home game against San Francisco. The Niners will be without defensive leader Fred Warner (hamstring), which could have a ripple effect. San Francisco ranks second against the run and 22nd in DVOA pass defense, and the Seahawks have managed no rushing attack since losing Chris Carson (neck, I.R.). Metcalf and Russell Wilson ($6,400; $7,300) could produce a bounce-back game and provide huge rewards as a stack with low ownership.

Fade: Mike Evans (DK: $6,700, FD: $7,400)

Evans has three receptions or fewer in four of his last six outings and hasn’t topped 100 yards since Week 5. His production is quite touchdown-dependent and the Bucs have more options in the red zone now that Brady’s buddy Rob Gronkowski (ribs) is active. Antonio Brown (ankle) has drawn the most targets from Brady when active and he could also return in what should be an easy win at Atlanta. Passing volume could be down in this contest and Evans seems to be moving a bit slower due to a back injury.

Tight End

Best Play: George Kittle (DK: $5,900, FD: $6,300)

The Seahawks have been tough on TEs in the past, but K.J. Wright is with the Raiders now and Bobby Wagner is slowing down in his 10th NFL campaign. Kittle has yet to record a TD in eight career meetings with Seattle, but he’s totaled 47 targets and is averaging 12.2 yards per catch over his last six games against the Seahawks. Deebo Samuel is drawing 31.3% of targets and 25% of red zone targets for the Niners this season and plenty of those looks should go towards Kittle with the dynamic WR out.

Value Play: Jared Cook (DK: $3,100, FD: $5,100)

Cincinnati beefed up it’s defense this offseason with key signings along the defensive line and in the secondary, but remains vulnerable at the intermediate levels. The Bengals are yielding 52.8 receiving YPG and have given up five TDs to TEs this season while facing the third-highest pass-play rate (64.2%) due to their run-funnel defense. Justin Herbert is our top play at QB and he could pair well with either Cook or Donald Parham Jr. ($2,800; $4,600). Cook has been more reliable while running 25 routes per game.

GPP Play:Rob Gronkowski (DK: $5,300, FD: $7,000)

Gronk isn’t much of a value at FanDuel, but is a great option at this price tag at DraftKings. The veteran TE has caught 13 of 18 targets for 194 yards in two games since returning from cracked ribs and is due for a TD or two in this matchup. Atlanta ranks 29th in DVOA pass defense and coughs up 48.8 receiving YPG to opposing TEs this season. Gronk owns a 27.9% target rate when running routes and ranks second among TEs in average distance of target (10.1).

Fade: Mark Andrews (DK: $6,000, FD: $7,300)

Andrews produced a big line on Sunday night, but much of that production came with Lamar Jackson attempting ill-advised passes in his direction. Jackson should rein it in at Pittsburgh as he looks to bounce back from a four-interception game. Andrews is averaging just 34.7 receiving YPG with zero TDs over four career games against the Steelers. Pittsburgh has only allowed two receiving scores and is giving up the eighth-fewest FPPG to TEs this year.

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Nate Weitzer Avatar
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Nate Weitzer

Nate Weitzer is a successful DFS player at DraftKings and FanDuel with numerous tournament wins in NBA and NFL contests. He's been writing about DFS for several years, specializing in NBA picks and advice while continuing to build his bankroll across the daily fantasy industry. When he's not playing DFS, Weitzer is often covering high school sports in the greater Boston area for outlets such as The Boston Globe, or playing basketball himself. Follow Nate on Twitter @Nweitzer7.

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