Week 15 NFL DFS DraftKings Picks & Lineups
Fourteen weeks of the season are in the books, and we’re back with a full slate of NFL DFS games at DraftKings for Week 15. We’re listing our NFL DFS best picks at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end to target in Cash and GPP lineups.
Please note the advice below is relevant for daily fantasy purposes and slanted toward tournaments. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, and lots of other factors. This is important to consider when constructing a roster. Injuries can also play a huge role in NFL DFS on a weekly basis. So always, always check the injury reports when playing an NFL slate.
DraftKings DFS Tournaments
Best Week 15 NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks
Ben Roethlisberger vs. NE ($6.6k DraftKings)
Roethlisberger and the Steelers embarrassingly lost to the Oakland Raiders last week. This week? Yeah, they just have to rebound against the New England Patriots. Fortunately for them, the Pats rank 19th against the pass and just allowed a 3-TD performance out of Ryan Tannehill last week (including 265 passing yards). Roethlisberger is obviously a better quarterback, and he’ll be at home this week, where he’s historically played much better than on the road. Carrying the fourth-highest over/under on the slate, this one is expected to be high scoring, but still close. That plays right into Roethlisberger’s game, as the dinged up backfield (plus the Le’Veon Bell absence) will continue to put pressure on the veteran to produce. He has high upside in a potential offensive battle.
Mitch Trubisky vs. GB ($6.0k DraftKings)
Trubisky and the Bears are having quite the comeback season. With arguably the best defense in the game, the Bears are in a position to make a run, but a matchup with Green Bay this Sunday comes first. This will be the first time the Bears have faced a Mike McCarthy-less Packers team in some time, but they’ll still match up against Aaron Rodgers. Fortunately, Trubisky has proven himself competent, and he’ll face a defense ranking 17th in DVOA vs. the pass and 25th in DVOA overall. The Bears have been unable to establish much out of the backfield, apart from Tarik Cohen, which should continue to put added emphasis on Trubisky’s game (both through the air and on the ground). The Packers just allowed three touchdowns to Matt Ryan at Green Bay, and Trubisky managed 15 DraftKings points in their first meeting this year. The second-year pro has come a long way since the Mike Glennon days, while the Packers continue to work into their new reality. Sounds like more of an offseason task. Trubisky is a solid play in what could be a competitive contest.
Matt Ryan vs. ARI ($6.1k DraftKings)
With the Falcons spiraling, they at least get a bit of a gimme against the Arizona Cardinals. Of course, it never is that easy, and I expect this game to be at least somewhat competitive. Vegas, on the other hand, expect the Falcons to win by more than a touchdown. Either way, I anticipate a solid game from Matt Ryan, who is coming off a three-touchdown performance last week against Green Bay. While Arizona is slightly above average against the pass in DVOA, the Falcons’ implied total of 26 doesn’t suggest they think it will be an issue. If you’re looking for a solid leverage play with a high floor, go with Ryan. If you’re looking for a massive leverage play, roster Ryan and fade Julio Jones.
Cash Game Options: Andrew Luck, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Dak Prescott
Best Week 15 NFL DFS GPP Running Backs
Gus Edwards vs. TB ($4.4 DraftKings)
The Bucs got beat up by the Saints last week but overall didn’t play all that badly on defense, allowing just 28 points. Still, they allowed Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram to combine for a mediocre 100+ rushing yards and a score. The week prior they allowed Christian McCaffrey to average over 10 yards on 10 carries. The Ravens are projected to score 27 points in this one, according to Vegas lines, while the Bucs’ implied total doesn’t break 20. Baltimore is expected to control this game, and they’ll do it partially with the run. Lamar Jackson has monstrous potential, and he’ll demand a lot of the Buccaneers’ attention. That should open up the run game for Edwards, like when he rushed for over 100 yards against the Raiders three games ago.
Ito Smith vs. ARI ($3.7 DraftKings)
Tevin Coleman may just never pan out for Atlanta. Last week, Ito Smith had 11 rushes for 60 yards, compared to Coleman’s 10 for 45 yards. Smith also had three receptions to Coleman’s one, and he also had a career-high in snaps. The Falcons are dead last in the NFC South, and this week they’ll get a very weak Cardinals team to bolster their record a bit. They are 8.5-point favorites and should lead to the potential for more work from Smith, as the Falcons attempt to build his experience. With his increasing role and performance last week, Smith is priced way down, even compared to Coleman. But the matchup is good, and the Falcons should dictate every step of this game.
Joe Mixon vs. OAK ($6.1 DraftKings)
Mixon returned to form last week with a strong game against the Chargers, racking up over 100 yards, one touchdown, and six catches. That will elevate his ownership this week, but he’s playing the Oakland Raiders. Oakland ranks 27th in DVOA vs. the run, and Mixon is one of the few backs priced in this range who can actually compete for slate-leading upside. And with Cincinnati’s offense in a bind without Andy Dalton and A.J. Green, Mixon’s impact on this offense will be very apparent, for better or worse. He’ll be popular, but his upside is too good to be priced this low, especially if you plan to fade Ezekiel Elliott and/or Saquon Barkley.
Cash Game Options: Ezekiel Elliott, Marlon Mack, Saquon Barkley, Jaylen Samuels, David Johnson, Leonard Fournette
Best Week 15 NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers
Adam Thielen vs. MIA ($8.6 DraftKings)
Thielen was somewhat of a no-show on Monday Night Football, but who on this Vikings offense wasn’t? Minnesota is not anywhere near where they likely expected to be with a franchise quarterback in Kirk Cousins, and this week should be about redemption against a Miami team that can’t defend elite wideouts. The Vikings rank 22nd in DVOA vs. WR1, but they may be without Xavien Howard again. Thielen and Cousins will look to get back on track, and Miami’s overall 24th defense (in DVOA) is just the matchup they could’ve hoped for. Stomach the salary, and take the points.
Tyler Boyd vs. OAK ($5.7 DraftKings)
Averaging over 16 yards per catch in four of his past five games, Boyd is a boom-or-bust option who should have gained some more traction by now with A.J. Green sidelined. But the Raiders have a bad defense, ranking 31st in DVOA. And Boyd, though struggling somewhat over recent weeks, still has big-play potential as he has displayed with multiple 20-DK-point efforts and even a 31-pointer. Oakland shocked everyone with a win against Pittsburgh last week, but they should come back to earth traveling this week. Boyd will have the workload, and he’s got the upside you want in tournaments.
Odell Beckham Jr. vs. TEN ($8.1 DraftKings)
Malcolm Butler has disappointed on the whole this season, and he’s allowed some massive plays to elite opposing wideouts. OBJ fits that bill, but you’ll have to keep an eye on his status. He’s currently listed as questionable after missing last week, but he has double-digit DraftKings points in all games but one this season. The Titans rank 30th in DVOA vs. WR1, and Eli Manning looks somewhat resurrected as he plays his way into one more season of a Giants starting job. Beckham has incredible usage and upside when on the field, and the Titans secondary stands to be exposed once again by elite talent if he suits up. NOTE: OBJ was not at practice on Friday
Larry Fitzgerald @ ATL ($4.7k DraftKings)
I listed Fitzgerald here last week, and he disappointed with just 10 DraftKings points. But he also saw nine targets, the first time that’s happened since early November. While he is without a touchdown over the past two games, Fitzgerald has caught three total in just the last month. The Falcons are in shambles, and the defense likely isn’t brimming with confidence or motivation at this stage. Ranking 30th in DVOA vs. the pass and 28th in DVOA vs. WR1, the Falcons are an exploitable defense, particularly for a veteran of Fitzgerald’s caliber.
Davante Adams @ CHI ($7.9 DraftKings)
Adams heads to Chicago with Aaron Rodgers and company (excluding Mike McCarthy, of course), and he’ll look to build on his streak of double-digit DK games. This season, Adams has failed to exceed 10 DraftKings points … not even once. He’s a safe option, but this week he has even greater appeal due to the leverage. The Packers take on the Bears, who field arguably the best defense in the game. But the Packers still have Aaron Rodgers. Take the points with Adams, and keep in mind the upside he presents. He dropped 19.8 points against the Bears in their first matchup, and the Packers are arguably in a much worse spot at this stage. With the Bears sitting at -5.5, you can bet the Packers will be forced to test the Bears secondary. And Adams, the team’s only consistent pass catcher, stands to benefit the most.
Cash Game Options: T.Y. Hilton, Juju Smith-Schuster, Amari Cooper, Stefon Diggs, Chris Godwin, Julio Jones
Best Week 15 NFL DFS Tight Ends
Rob Gronkowski vs. PIT ($5.8 DraftKings)
The greatest tight end of all time looks fragile, but he’s still a phenomenal football player. Last week, he racked up 27.7 points and, even though he couldn’t make the game-saving tackle, he delivered for the DFS players who rostered him. This week, he’ll face a defense ranking 31st in DVOA vs. the tight end. Not only that, but the Steelers also have to gameplan around Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon, James White, Tom Brady, and Sony Michel, not necessarily in that order. Gronkowski is priced at a very reasonable level, one that gives him even more upside than usual. He’s an ideal tight end option for tournaments.
Vernon Davis @ JAX ($3.2 DraftKings)
The Jags have a great defense, but that team is in a bad spot after a promising 2017 campaign. I don’t expect much from Jacksonville down the stretch. While they are good against just about every position, one of their weaker points is against tight ends, a position they rank 13th against in DVOA, which is only OK relative to their other DVOA metrics vs. specific positions. Now, Vernon Davis is aging gracefully, and Jordan Reed will miss this week, if not the rest of the season. Though his season overall hasn’t been too successful, Davis may be this team’s best option against Jalen Ramsey and company. He should see a higher volume of targets than usual, and at least Mark Sanchez won’t be his quarterback. The veteran TE provides good value in a game that has almost none.
Cash Game Options: Eric Ebron, George Kittle, Jared Cook, Trey Burton
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