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NFL DFS

The Week 12 NFL schedule includes a divisional matchup between the Packers and Vikings. For this game and every other primetime contest, we’ll break down the sports betting lines and recommend where to place your bets at DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook.

This advice is also relevant for fantasy contests on sites such as DraftKings and FanDuel and can be helpful in seasonal fantasy leagues as well.

Keep an eye on injury news right up until kick off since things can change quickly in the NFL. Any player listed as questionable may see limited action or not suit up at all if they don’t respond well in warm-ups.

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Week 12 Sunday Night Football Betting Odds

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

DraftKings Sportsbook Odds (Click for $60 free): Vikings -3, 47.5 total
888 Sportsbook Odds (Click for $10 free)Vikings -3, 47.5 total
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds (Click for up to $500 risk free bet): Vikings -3.5, 47.5 total
BetStars Sportsbook Odds (Click for up to $500 in free bets)Vikings -3, 47.5 total

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NFL Week 12 Sunday Night Football Breakdown

The Vikings play a second-straight Sunday night game within the division, and the Packers are in primetime for the third time in four games. Green Bay will certainly appreciate the extra rest after playing three games in 12 days. The Packers are 0-5 and are coughing up 29.8 PPG on the road this season.

Despite the loss, Minnesota finished Sunday’s game against the Bears with momentum. Kirk Cousins and Stefon Diggs worked an impressive connection to lead two scoring drives in the fourth quarter. Diggs has the second-high plus/minus rating (3.23) of any WR on the full weekend DFS slate per models on FantasyLabs.

The Packers will hope to use their mini-bye to get healthier in the secondary, with FS Raven Greene (ankle), SS Kentrell Brice (ankle), and LCB Kevin King (groin) all battling injuries. Greene has been overmatched since replacing Ha Ha Clinton Dix. Plus, the Packers are using street-signing Bashaud Breeland out of position as a slot corner.

Adam Thielen will make mincemeat out of Breeland if they match up. Thielen is, of course, capable of producing against a Packers team that suddenly ranks 15th in DVOA pass defense after opening the season in the top three (with Dix at FS). He is one of the strongest options in NFL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel and can be paired with Cousins, who posted a season-best 118.8 passer rating when these teams met in Week 2.

Thielen (12-131-TD) and Diggs (9-128-2TD) both torched GB earlier this season, and their volume is ensured on a Vikings team with the highest pass-play rate in the NFL. Together they’ve combined for over 50 percent of Minnesota’s targets and over 70 percent of the team’s air yards.

The Packers are much worse in run defense and will become even more vulnerable with DT Mike Daniels (foot) joining Muhammad Wilkerson (ankle) on the shelf. It’s worth noting Minnesota’s offensive line ranks dead last in run-blocking metrics, but with LT Riley Reiff (foot) and LG Tom Compton (knee) getting healthier, we could see a more balanced attack.

Dalvin Cook played 59 snaps and Latavius Murray just eight last Sunday night at the Bears. Cook is the better option in this pass-heavy attack. His quickness can overcome some of the Vikings’ struggles in run blocking.

Then, the Packers have allowed the fourth-fewest catches to opposing TEs, and Kyle Rudolph has become an afterthought in this passing offense.

STEFON DIGGS SCORES FIRST TOUCHDOWN (+900) AT BETSTARS

If anyone other than Aaron Rodgers was playing QB for Green Bay (and I mean, anyone), the Packers would have zero chance in this game. While HC Mike McCarthy gave up play-calling duties, he’s struggling to manage games. Also, the weaponry surrounding Rodgers leaves much to be desired.

Jimmy Graham claims he’s going to play through a broken thumb but will likely be ineffective if active. Lance Kendricks is next in line for snaps at tight end. Randall Cobb (hamstring) is also expected to play for GB. Yet he’s been hobbled all year and faces a Vikings defense that ranks sixth in DVOA pass defense.

Minnesota leads the league in DVOA pass defense against No. 1 receivers and has a fully health Xavier Rhodes on the outside to tangle with Davante Adams. Adams has produced against the best DBs in the NFL all year (including 8-64-TD against Rhodes in Week 2), as Rodgers is willing to feed him the ball regardless of how tightly he’s covered.

With Cobb back, promising rookie Marquez Valdes-Scantling will shift outside and match up against a lesser CB in Trae Waynes. Minnesota ranks 25th against No. 2 receivers and 31st in pass defense against opposing RBs, so MVS and Aaron Jones could be the Packers’ best means of moving the ball through the air.

Jones played 44 of 49 snaps last week and managed 103 yards and 2 TDs as a dual threat. Minnesota ranks fourth in DVOA rush defense and is allowing just 3.6 YPC, tied for the lowest mark in the league. Jones ran a career-high 27 pass routes last Thursday and his best bet for production may be as a receiver.

The Vikings are allowing the fifth-fewest yards and third-fewest TD receptions to opposing WRs this year, along with the fewest passing TD overall. Minnesota has not allowed a WR to go over 81 yards since a Week 4 loss at the Rams.

With stud FS Andrew Sendejo, excellent NT Linval Joseph, and elite pass rusher Everson Griffen back in the lineup, the Vikings D continues to trend upward. Moreover, they’re expecting WLB Anthony Barr (hamstring) back from a three-game absence.

The Vikings are holding opposing QBs to a 75.2 passer rating with a 3:5 TD:INT ratio and a crazy low 4.6 adjusted net yards per attempt average at home this season.

VIKINGS -3.5 AND UNDER 47.5 (+290) AT FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK

NFL Week 12 Picks

Rodgers has been great in his last two home starts against the Vikings. Yet he’s managed just 211.3 YPG with an 89.7 passer rating while absorbing eight sacks over his last three trips to Minnesota.

He’s a transcendent talent with a 10 TDs and no interceptions on the road this season, but Rodgers probably won’t be able to produce something out of nothing consistently in this must-win game for both teams.

The Vikings allow the fourth-fewest points (1.75) and fewest TDs per drive this season. These teams are 18th and 22nd in drive success rate (DSR). Minnesota is 23rd in red zone TD rate, so the Under (47.5) is a reasonable bet in a matchup between familiar foes.

While Minnesota struggled earlier this season, the Vikings dominated in their last home game, a 24-9 win over Detroit. We expect a closer game this time around but one in which Minnesota (-3 at BetStars & DraftKings) wins by more than a FG.

Most bets are on the Packers due to Rodgers’ reputation and name recognition, but money is split closer down the middle. If the line moves under a FG due to that trend, we’d bet more aggressively on the Vikings to cover.

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