Week 12 NFL DFS DraftKings Picks & Lineups
Eleven weeks of the season are in the books, and we’re back with a full slate of NFL DFS games at DraftKings for Week 12. We’re listing our NFL DFS best picks at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end to target in Cash and GPP lineups.
Please note the advice below is relevant for daily fantasy purposes and slanted toward tournaments. A player or team might be better or worse from a fantasy perspective than in real life due to matchup, price, and lots of other factors. This is important to consider when constructing a roster. Injuries can also play a huge role in NFL DFS on a weekly basis. So always, always check the injury reports when playing an NFL slate.
DraftKings DFS Tournaments
Best Week 12 NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks
Jameis Winston vs. SF ($6.0k DraftKings)
The rollercoaster ride continues for Winston and Co. This week, though, the Bucs face a soft defense in the San Francisco 49ers. Winston should have the full fleet at his disposal, with DeSean Jackson, Adam Humphries, Chris Godwin, and Mike Evans. Fortunately, the Niners are below average against in DVOA, including DVOA vs. the pass. The Bucs have an implied total of 28, the fourth highest on the slate. Without much of a running game, and a defense that allows plenty of scoring (the Bucs rank 31st in DVOA), Winston will likely find himself engineering this Buccaneers offense in a fun shootout. The Bucs currently stand as -3.5 home favorites, so Vegas expects a competitive one, which boosts Winston’s upside, making him a GPP target.
Lamar Jackson vs. OAK ($5.7k DraftKings)
The lowly Raiders are in rebuild mode, and this weekend the play all the way in Baltimore. Lamar Jackson is coming off a phenomenal(ish) debut with over 100 rushing yards on a whopping 27 carries. He’s saying this week will be a pass-focused one, which is good to hear considering his mediocre 150 passing yards on 19 attempts, with no touchdowns and one interception. But, again, we’re talking about Oakland here. Playing on the opposite side of the country. The Ravens currently carry an implied total of 27. Given it will be difficult to pick which receiver sees the bulk of the work, rolling with Jackson solo would be one way to gain exposure to this game without relying too heavily on a very unpredictable passing game in Baltimore. Jackson’s upside is much more secure, as Oakland ranks dead last in DVOA vs. Pass.
Russell Wilson @ CAR ($5.6k DraftKings)
Expect Cam Newton to be popular this week, as the dynamic Carolina Panthers QB is extremely consistent, given his versatility. But Wilson isn’t a one-dimensional quarterback by any means. One of the last remaining faces of the Seahawks dynasty (if you can call it that), Wilson remains his team’s most valuable player, and continues to make a case as the league’s most valuable player. And he’s at least been consistent for DFS owners. In all but one game this season, Wilson has managed at least 15 DraftKings points. He also had four consecutive 20+ DK-point weeks prior to the 18 DK points he had against the Green Bay Packers last week. The Seahawks are road underdogs in this one, projected to score just over 21 points. But Wilson is just one game removed from a 92-yard rushing performance against the LA Rams. Seattle will need that level of gamesmanship from Wilson this week to win, which gives him definitive upside. Buy low on Wilson here, and get some leverage on the field (especially if you double-down with a McCaffrey play, creating even more leverage with a Newton fade).
Cash Game Options: Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Nick Mullens, Baker Mayfield
Best Week 12 NFL DFS GPP Running Backs
Marlon Mack vs. MIA ($5.5 DraftKings)
The Colts offense is a-rollin’. Andrew Luck is back, and, man, doesn’t it feel like we’re right back where we left off with the Stanford product? Luck is a dominant force through the air, and he’s never needed much by way of weapons to succeed. This season is no different, as Luck connects with Eric Ebron, Marlon Mack, T.Y. Hilton, and the rest of this seemingly-potent offense at will. The Colts are projected to score 29 this week, and currently sit at -7.5-point favorites. Indianapolis should control this one, and do so by working the clock with Mack. This game really reminds me of the Colts matchup against Oakland, in which Mack had 132 yards and two touchdowns on 25 carries en route to a 42-28 win. Now, Miami ranks 21st in DVOA vs. the run, compared to Oakland’s rank of 25th. But the point should be clear. The Colts shouldn’t need to push too hard on the gas pedal here, and Mack’s workload should be the one impacted most positively by this.
Joshua Adams vs. NYG ($3.8 DraftKings)
A rough, rough beatdown by the Saints last week should leave the reigning champs hungry for redemption. Fortunately for them, the struggling New York Giants are up next. The Eagles scored 34 points against NYG earlier this season, while their defense allowed the Giants to score just 13. This week may not be so different, as the Eagles are favorites (-6), projected to score over 26 points. They should look to work the clock with Adams, who has shown true promise in limited work this season. Over his last three games, he’s managed 161 yards on 23 carries, including a touchdown last week. He also saw six targets last week, though he failed to do much with them. Regardless, the Eagles are giving their young back work as the entire backfield, seemingly, is working through injuries. I think he’s just too cheap given his potential workload, and the fact the Giants rank 28th defensively DVOA.
Matt Breida @ TB ($5.7 DraftKings)
While the San Francisco 49ers offense isn’t good, they are in a matchup that screams shootout this week against the Bucs. Breida should be one of the key beneficiaries of the matchup, as the Bucs rank 27th in DVOA vs. the run, and 19th in DVOA vs. running backs catching passes out of the backfield. Breida does each pretty well, thanks to his athleticism and dynamic play. The Niners are slated to score 25 in this one (and still lose), and it’s hard to imagine Breida isn’t a major part of that production. After a mediocre week following a mediocre week, Breida finally broke out again last week with 31.2 DraftKings points. The Bucs defense is horrendous, and Breida’s momentum should prevail in what could be the highest scoring game on the slate. It should certainly be the most chaotic.
Cash Game Options: LeSean McCoy, Elijah McGuire, Christian McCaffrey, Peyton Barber, Melvin Gordon, Jalen Richard, Saquon Barkley, James Conner, Nick Chubb, James White
Best Week 12 NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers
Chris Godwin vs. SF ($4.1 DraftKings)
The Tampa Bay Bucs are slated to score 28 points this week. If you are not inclined to fade Mike Evans, or the relatively low ceiling of DeSean Jackson, Godwin might be your guy. The Niners rank 31st in DVOA vs. WR3, and that’s exactly where Godwin is most likely to slot in. With so many points to be scored, Godwin has high upside, which he’s shown in previous games this season, as well. Like two games ago, against Washington, when he managed 20 DraftKings points with a 100+ yard receiving effort (and going seven of seven on targets). DeSean Jackson certainly has that ability as well, but carrying a questionable tag and just one touchdown in his last eight games, the veteran seems like a lower upside, higher cost play in this one.
Danny Amendola @ IND ($4.6 DraftKings)
The Colts have the highest implied total on the slate, meaning the Miami Dolphins will almost certainly be playing from behind for the most part. That suggests a heavier passing attack, which would bode well for Danny Amendola. The veteran caught seven of 10 targets for 72 yards in his last outing, and his workload should be sustained out of necessity. The Dolphins are 7.5-point underdogs in this one, making Amendola a solid cash game option. But he’ll be a very low-owned tournament option. The Colts rank 23rd in DVOA vs. the pass, and have allowed at least one touchdown to an opposing wideout in each of the last three weeks. Amendola’s 18%+ market share make him a strong volume play, and there’s hope he breaks one off in vintage Amendola form. Like the Donte Moncrief 80-yard touchdown the Colts allowed two weeks ago.
Tyler Boyd vs. CLE ($6.0 DraftKings)
Boyd’s salary gives me pause, but he’s one of the better receivers on the slate, and his upside is certainly booming with A.J. Green out of the lineup. Last week, Boyd had four catches on 11 targets, turning in a very disappointing outing. But the Bengals don’t have a ton of options here, and the Browns rank 19th in DVOA vs. WR1. Boyd will fill that role, while Joe Mixon looks to serve as a leading force in the ground attack. The Browns rank 26th against the run, meaning Mixon is obviously viable, but Boyd is the most likely to succeed in the receiving game, when just looking at DVOA. With double-digit target upside in a competitive game, Boyd has enormous upside as Green’s fill-in.
Doug Baldwin @ CAR ($5.1k DraftKings)
Baldwin is rather inexpensive given his 7-catch, 52-yard, one-touchdown effort last week. But I guess upside has always been Baldwin’s shortcoming. So why play him against Carolina? The Seahawks are desperate to prove they can still contend after the complete overhaul of their defense (and offense, too, really). And Russell Wilson’s hyper-competitiveness only benefits his teammates. More importantly, Baldwin had his first double-digit target game last week, reeling in seven of 10. And he managed his first touchdown of the season. The Panthers rank 25th in DVOA vs. the pass, and just last week they allowed Kenny Golladay to haul in eight passes for 113 yards and a score. The week before, they allowed 90 yards and a touchdown to Juju Smith-Schuster and 96 yards and a touchdown to Antonio Brown. You get the point.
Keenan Allen vs. ARI ($7.1 DraftKings)
Allen crushed for us last week, and there’s no reason to believe he won’t do the same this week against the Arizona Cardinals. Well, except for the threat of a severe blowout. Still, Allen should find a way to rack up DFS points with the Chargers carrying an implied total of over 28 points in this one. The Cardinals have a respectable defense, if nothing else, but they are still -12.5 underdogs. That is a pretty jarring line, considering they only allowed 26 points to the Kansas City Chiefs. But Allen is a model of consistency, and if the Cardinals average run defense can contain Melvin Gordon (whose yards-per-carry average has decreased in each of the past two weeks), the only way to get to that 28 point implied total will be through the air. Take Allen’s double-digit target potential (he has at least nine in each of his last three games) and take the reasonably priced exposure to some Vegas-implied upside.
Cash Game Options: Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, TY Hilton, Courtland Sutton, DeSean Jackson, Seth Roberts, Emmanuel Sanders, Quincy Enunwa, Jarvis Landry
Best Week 12 NFL DFS Tight Ends
George Kittle @ TB ($6.2 DraftKings)
As I mentioned before, the Bucs do not have a good defense. And they rank second-to-last in DVOA vs. TE. Kittle and the Niners are slated for an implied point-total of just over 25, and I’m just not sure how they get there without a lot of Kittle and a lot of Breida. The San Francisco tight end has scored at least 10 DraftKings points in four straight, and at least 17 in three of his last four. There isn’t much to love in San Francisco, but a shootout against Tampa this weekend is not something to pass up. And Kittle should lead this Niners receiving corp in just about every meaningful category.
Christopher Herndon vs. NE ($2.9 DraftKings)
The Jets are another team without much promise. But Christopher Herndon is nevertheless in a good spot this weekend. The Pats are one of the worst teams in the league against the tight end. And the game plan this Sunday will likely not focus on Herndon. As far as the Pats are concerned, if you plan to beat them by targeting the tight end, they’re okay with that. Herndon won’t win this game for the Jets, but he has double-digit DK-point performances in three of his last five. And he should find a way to succeed in this one, as New England focuses on locking down more explosive options (albeit, that is a limited list).
Cash Game Options: Zach Ertz, Jared Cook, Jack Doyle
*Eligibility restrictions apply. See website for details.