Welcome to the Week 12 edition of our NFL Bets of the Week column. Here, I’ll strive to identify a handful of games I feel have profit potential at DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, 888 Sports and BetStars Sportsbook.
Depending on the circumstance, I’ll hone in on moneylines, point spreads, or projected totals. Sometimes I may even touch on multiple metrics for one game. We’ll strive for quality over quantity here as well — the focus will only be on spots that seem to truly be advantageous. Then, I’ll take you on a fairly deep dive as to why.
Please note we’ll be referencing only legal, regulated sportsbook betting odds and totals here at PlayPicks. A “pick” is a wager that, as of the time of this writing, we feel confident recommending. A “lean” is a wager that we favor over the other side. This play could end up on our card with the release of additional information.
Let’s take a quick look at how things went in Week 11 and follow that up with a leap into two interesting scenarios for Week 12.
Recapping Week 11
Week 11 winners: Vikings-Bears over 44.5
Week 11 losers: Cardinals -5, Cardinals moneyline, Vikings +2.5 (lean)
Season record to date:
ATS Picks: 16-10 (.615)
ATS Leans: 1-1 (.500)
Moneyline: 6-6 (.500)
Over/under: 1-1-1 (.500)
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Week 12 NFL Betting Picks
New England Patriots (7-3) at New York Jets (3-7)
DraftKings Sportsbook Odds: Patriots -9
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: Patriots -9.5
888 Sportsbook Odds: Patriots -10
Over/Under Total: 46
How They Fared in Week 11
The Patriots were on their bye in Week 11. In Week 10, they were manhandled by the Tennessee Titans on the road by a 34-10 score. Tom Brady completed just 21 of 41 passes for 254 yards. Sony Michel rushed 11 times for 31 yards. Julian Edelman (9-104) and Josh Gordon (4-81) both contributed through the air. However, New England couldn’t slow down the combination of Marcus Mariota and Corey Davis. Mariota threw for 228 yards and two touchdowns, with 125 yards of that going to Davis across seven completions.
The Jets were decimated by the Buffalo Bills, 41-10. Matt Barkley stepped in at quarterback for Buffalo and completed 15 of 25 passes for 232 yards with two touchdowns. New York allowed LeSean McCoy to rush for 113 yards and two touchdowns on 26 rushes. Meanwhile, Josh McCown filled in for Sam Darnold (foot) and could only muster 135 yards while throwing two interceptions.
Notable Matchups and Metrics
Despite their embarrassing performance in Week 10, New England, as has often been the case in the Brady era, has been among the best offensive teams in the NFL. The Patriots are scoring the seventh-most points per game (28.0). They boast a balanced attack as well. New England ranks 11th in passing yards per game (269.0). Meanwhile, although they’ve rushed for a modest 108.5 yards per contest, the Patriots have 12 touchdowns on the ground. And, their overall numbers have been hampered by Michel missing three full games and playing just six snaps in a fourth.
Then, while the Patriots have allowed 270 passing yards per game, they’re yielding the third-lowest completion percentage (60.9). New England’s 11 interceptions also tie them with several teams for fourth most. On the ground, the Patriots’ five rushing scores allowed are the second fewest in the league.
On the other side, the Jets are bottom-10 offense. They’re mustering just 299.4 total yards and a modest 20.8 points per game. And, they’ve been even worse as the season has gone one. New York has just 26 points combined over their last three games. The passing attack has been a particular handicap. New York sports the lowest completion percentage (54.5) in the NFL and has averaged just 192.0 yards through the air. On defense, the Jets have been about or slightly below average, allowing 242.0 passing yards per game through the air and 119.5 per contest on the ground.
There’s reportedly a chance that Darnold returns to health in time for this matchup. If so, New England will be poised for some turnovers, considering Darnold has thrown 14 interceptions and also lost a fumble. New York could also be without speed receiver Robby Anderson (ankle) for a second straight game.
The Patriots are slated to get star tight end Rob Gronkowski back from his ankle and back injuries. If Gronkowski is at full health, that would naturally represent a sizable boost for the New England passing game. Michel should also be as close to 100 percent as he’s been in some time coming out of the bye week.
By the Numbers
The Patriots are 6-4 (60.0 percent) versus the spread overall this season. They’re also 2-0 (100.0 percent) versus the number in division games. And, New England is 6-2 (75.0 percent) against the spread after a bye over the last five seasons (including postseason byes).
The Jets are 3-7 (30.0 percent) versus the spread overall this season. That includes a 2-3 mark (40.0 percent) against the number as a home team and 0-1 as a home underdog. New York is also 0-3 against the spread in division games.
The Final Word
The Patriots have often been able to win and win big coming out of bye weeks in the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick era, including in recent seasons. New England also should be as close to full health as they’ve been in some time and are facing a reeling team in the Jets that they should be able to make one-dimensional, irrespective of who’s under center for Gang Green. Being the prideful team that they are, New England should have an extra dose of motivation and will be looking to avenge their humiliating Week 10 loss. I see New England enjoying enough of a resurgence to score a double-digit win.
The Pick: Patriots -9, Patriots moneyline
New York Giants (3-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-6)
DraftKings Sportsbook Odds: Eagles -5.5
BetStars Sportsbook Odds: Eagles -6
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: Eagles -5.5
888 Sportsbook Odds: Eagles -6
Over/Under total: 47.0
How They Fared in Week 11
The Giants secured a 38-35 win over the Buccaneers, a game in which Eli Manning misfired on just one of 18 pass attempts. Saquon Barkley rushed 27 times for 142 yards and two touchdowns while also adding another score through the air. Odell Beckham, Jr. tallied four receptions for 74 yards and a touchdown. Although they almost blew a 31-14 second-half lead, New York was able to pick off the quarterback duo of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jameis Winston a combined four times.
The Eagles suffered a humiliating 48-7 loss to the New Orleans Saints. Drew Brees torched Philadelphia for 363 yards and four touchdowns. Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram combined for 174 rushing yards and three total touchdowns. Tre’Quan Smith (10-157-1) and Michael Thomas (4-92-1) did the majority of the damage through the air. Carson Wentz (156 yards, three interceptions), Alshon Jeffery (4-33) and Zach Ertz (2-15) all turned in especially disappointing performances for Philadelphia.
Notable Matchups and Metrics
The Giants provided a rare glimpse of what it looks like when their offense plays at near peak efficiency in Week 11. Their dismantling of the Bucs was comprised of equally impressive passing and rushing efforts. No one doubts whether Saquon Barkley’s elite production is an outlier. The No. 2 overall pick has been stellar since Day 1.
However, Manning’s near-perfect performance, while unsustainable over multiple weeks, isn’t that drastically different over those of other recent games. Manning has a trio of 300-yard efforts in the last six games. That span also includes three multi-touchdown tallies and 27 completions of over 20 yards, including eight over 40. Beckham has naturally played a big role. He’s crossed the 100-yard mark on five occasions this season. He boasts nine catches of over 20 yards — including three over 40 — in the last four games alone.
Despite their unsightly season record, New York’s offensive metrics are solid. New York has the 13th-most passing yards per game (258.0). Manning’s 69.0 completion percentage is a career high. His 7.7 YPA is actually his best since 2011. Then, while they’ve averaged the third-lowest rushing yards per game (88.3), that’s largely been a byproduct of New York often having to abandon the run due to game script. The G-Men have the second-lowest rushing attempts (203). Barkley showed what the upside of New York’s ground attack looks like in their Week 11 blowout win.
One of the most effective rush defenses earlier in the season, Philadelphia has slipped considerably in that regard. They’re now allowing 4.7 yards per carry. Plus, they’ve been particularly susceptible to giving up receptions to running backs. Philadelphia is tied with the Rams for fifth-most receptions (62) allowed to the position. That doesn’t bode well when going up against an elite pass-catching back like Barkley.
The Eagles have given up plenty through the air overall. Philadelphia is allowing 277 passing yards per game and a 16:4 TD:INT. They also rank in the bottom five in yards after catch (1,434) and bottom 10 in air yards allowed (3,015).
By the Numbers
The Giants are 4-1 (80.0 percent) against the spread as a road underdog this season.
The Eagles are 3-7 (30.0 percent) against the spread overall this season. That includes a 1-4 (20.0 percent) mark versus the number as a home underdog. Philadelphia is also 2-3 (40.0 percent) against the spread after a loss.
The Final Word
The Giants are coming off their best offensive performance of the season and should have some confidence coming into this matchup. They’ve lost by less than Sunday’s spread in their last two games at the Linc. And, five of the last six games between the teams have been decided by five points or less. Meanwhile, the Eagles could be suffering from a real crisis of confidence after last week’s dismantling by New Orleans. Given the difficulty typically associated with the second seasonal matchup against a division opponent, I’m leaning toward the Giants keeping this close enough for a cover of a slightly inflated point spread.
The Lean: Giants +6