The Thursday night NFL games on Fanduel are always ripe with opportunity if you have more information than the herd. Recency bias, a smaller volume of tout articles, and that one guy in your 50/50 who uses an entire lineup of players from the TNF game can tick the odds ever so slightly in your favor to cash.
Here’s some early social buzz and value data on who you should pick for your cash and GPP games. The social buzz data is based on mentions of players by a set of about 350 DFS thought leaders on Twitter, including analysts, prominent writers and influential DFS players.
This week, Derek Anderson is the Ryan Fitzpatrick special in all formats. At his $5k price, he only needs 14 points to be the best value at his position in a vacuum… and that doesn’t even account for the flexibility his price will afford you throughout the rest of your lineups. I’d only dare fade him in GPPs.
It’s too early in the week to know if Mike Glennon will be starting for the Bucs, so don’t risk it tonight.
At this stage of the week, it’s a little too early to know which of the remaining QBs is going to be a hot GPP play. None of them have particularly differentiated themselves… other than Johnny Manziel, whose buzz is literally off the charts. His price/projection doesn’t quite put him in this set of QBs so I’m very comfortable fading him in all formats at his potential ownership levels. Check back in with our Ownership percentage article from these Thursday Night Contests and we will take a closer look at other GPP Quarterback options flying under the radar on Saturday.
This week, it looks like Chris Ivory is the special low-cost value in GPP play. His backfield mate Chris Johnson didn’t quite make the cut as his value projection wasn’t within the top 12 RBs, but his buzz in a “revenge narrative” game against his former team is quite high, making Ivory the play. I wouldn’t be scared to use either in cash games either, since they just need 10 points to be an outstanding value, and can help you splurge on the rest of your lineups.
If you want to spend a little more Alfred Morris, Justin Forsett, Shady McCoy and CJ Anderson are all in the mid-range of RBs this week. ALF and Forsett seem to be flying under the radar a little more than McCoy or CJ.
Marshawn Lynch barely made the cut as a chalk play and lots of people are talking about him, so I’m happy to avoid him. Jamaal Charles has lots of buzz on him in a juicy matchup against the Raiders, so I’d probably want him in cash games but fade in GPP. Of the remaining four RBs, Lev’eon Bell is going to get lots of buzz for the hot streak he’s on, and I’d love him in cash games, but in GPP, I’d spend on Arian, Demarco Murray and Forte.
At WR this week, Kenny Stills only needs 10 points to be a great value and 12 points to be an elite value. I’m taking him in all formats due to the lack of buzz. Things change so quickly in DFS as last week we advocated the fade of Kenny Stills and are now right back onto him with everyone else jumping off due to recency bias. I’d also love to pair Roddy White and Sammy Watkins with their respective QBs in some GPP stacks, since neither has much buzz.
Once again, Josh Gordon would’ve broken this chart… his mentions are double what OBJ has. Gordon is not projected as a chalk play this weekend so I’m comfortable fading in all formats, unless I want a chalk stack with Johnny Effing Football.
OBJ and Julio Jones are considered the #1 and #3 chalk values, so I have no problem using them in cash games. If I’m in GPP play though, guys like Antonio Brown, Megatron, T.Y. Hilton, Demaryius Thomas or Dez Bryant will give you more leverage.
At TE this week, Martellus Bennett has the best price/projection ratio and is mid-priced with no buzz. Fire him up in all formats… if you don’t have quite enough money for him, go with Antonio Gates, Delanie Walker or Larry Donnell (which is their order of price/projection ratios), as none of them have any buzz either.
Jimmy Graham is technically the #2 value at TE. I’d be more comfortable using him in cash games than GPP, since I think a lot of people will be onto him at his low price. It’s hard to ignore him at such a low price.
Rob Gronkowski, once again, is high price, high buzz, and is technically the #5 value at the position. I’m comfortable getting a few shares in GPP if there’s a lot of money left over from other positions, since he’s got the highest floor.