NFL Thanksgiving DFS Picks | Week 12 Best Bets For DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups

Posted By Nate Weitzer on November 24, 2021

We’ve reached Thanksgiving week and that means an extra slate of Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) contests offered for Thursday on DraftKings and FanDuel with big prize pools and exciting formats such as Best Ball and Showdown mode.

Whether you’re located in a state that won’t allow you to wager on NFL odds or just prefer DFS to traditional sports betting, there are many contests to choose from each and every week of the season. Here, we’ll provide you with lineup advice for a variety of contests including cash games (i.e. 50/50, H2H, and Double-Up) and GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool) tournaments.


Thanksgiving NFL DFS Lineup Picks | Predictions For DraftKings & FanDuel

Whether you play at DraftKings or FanDuel, we want to make the process of choosing your lineup as simple as possible. Below, we have suggestions for several different DFS contest types along with prices for each player from both sites.


Best Play: Josh Allen (DK: $7,800, FD: $8,800)

The Bills looked awful in another loss last week and Allen has now committed six turnovers over his last three games. Yet he’s still averaging 279.7 passing YPG in those contests and has 126 rushing yards over his last four starts.

The Saints were gashed on the ground in their last game, but remain more vulnerable through the air. New Orleans is giving up the seventh-most DK PPG (21) while allowing the most rushing TDs (5) to QBs this season. The Saints are yielding 9.0 yards per attempt and a 67.6% completion rate at home under the Superdome this year.

Value Play: Andy Dalton (DK: $5,500, FD: $7,200)

Justin Fields (ribs) is doubtful this week and that means one of the best backups in football will get his shot against a porous Lions defense. Detroit ranks 28th in DVOA pass defense and 29th in sack rate (4.75%) which is huge for a QB playing behind a struggling offensive line.

Dalton completed 11 of 23 passes for 201 yards and 2 TDs in a comeback effort against the Ravens and is 5-2 with a 66.3% completion rate in indoor stadiums throughout his career.

GPP Play: Taysom Hill (DK: $4,800, FD: $7,000)

Trevor Siemian tossed a pair of crippling interceptions in Sunday’s loss to the Eagles and could get the hook if he struggles early against Buffalo’s top-rated defense. The Bills allow the fewest FPPG to opposing QBs, but Hill is far from your typical pocket passer.

With Alvin Kamara and ark Ingram both questionable, we’ll see if Sean Payton decides to turn his newly-minted athlete loose as a run-first QB. Hill could put up big production on Thursday night if given the opportunity.

Fade: Derek Carr (DK: $5,900, FD: $7,400)

The Raiders offense has been falling apart and their defense couldn’t get any stops against Cincinnati’s rushing attack last week, leaving Carr with just over 22 minutes of possession. If they can’t stop the Bengals, how are they supposed to contain a Cowboys offense that averages 159.6 rushing YPG at home and might get LT Tyron Smith back this week? Carr could have few opportunities in this matchup and he’s been under consistent pressure over his last three starts.

Running Back

Best Play: Ezekiel Elliott (DK: $8,000, FD: $8,400)

The Cowboys are optimistic that elite LT Tyron Smith (ankle) can return from a three-game absence and that would make all the difference for their running game. In seven games with Smith active, they average 152 rushing YPG at a 4.9 YPC clip and in three games without him, just 91.3 rushing YPG at a 4.0 YPC clip. Zeke is averaging 5.4 YPC at home compared to 3.7 on the road, and six of his seven TDs have come in Dallas.

Value Play: Dwayne Washington (DK: $4,000, FD: $4,700)

If Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram are both ruled out due to their respective knee injuries, the Saints will be left with Dwayne Washington and Tony Jones as their only healthy backs.

Jones is coming off an ankle injury and might not be ready to run against a tough Bills front that will certainly be motivated after getting rolled by Jonathan Taylor and the Colts.

Washington is a more intriguing change-of-pace option, who could see more work in the passing game if traditional running plays are unsuccessful.

GPP Play: David Montgomery (DK: $6,000, FD: $7,500)

Opportunities have certainly been there for Montgomery since he returned from a knee sprain in Week 9. He’s handled 30 touches while playing on 90% of offensive snaps in two games.

He could break through this week against a Lions team that gives up the second-most DK PPG to RBs while facing the highest rush-play rate (50%) in football. Montgomery went for 143 scrimmage yards and a TD against the Packers last Thanksgiving and has 5 TDs over his last four meetings with Detroit.

Fade: D’Andre Swift (DK: $7,300, FD: $8,000)

While Swift is coming off the best three-game stretch of his young career, he could run into trouble against the Bears. He’s averaged just 2.2 YPG and 24 receiving YPG with one score over two career meetings with Chicago.

The Bears have only given up two rushing TDs over their last four losses and aren’t any worse in terms of defending the run when playing on the road.

Wide Receiver

Best Play: Stefon Diggs (DK: $7,900, FD: $8,300)

Emmanuel Sanders ($4,800; $5,800) is also an intriguing value option as he goes up against his former team in New Orleans this Thursday. Diggs is the top play on the slate with Cole Beasley (ribs) limited in practice and fading out of the Bills pass-happy attack.

Diggs led Buffalo in a bounce-back effort after their loss in Jacksonville with eight catches for 163 yards and a TD against the Jets. He’s caught 13 balls in the red zone on the second-most targets (19) among WRs and averages the fourth-most Air Yards (107.5) per game. As mentioned above, the Saints yield more passing production at home and the Bills have almost no running game.

Value Play: Cedrick Wilson (DK: $3,500, FD: $5,600)

If CeeDee Lamb is unable to clear concussion protocol, Wilson and Michael Gallup ($5,900; $6,500) will have to serve as Dak Prescott’s top targets with Amari Cooper (COVID) already ruled out.

Wilson played on 42 offensive snaps (63%) last week and caught four of seven targets for 36 yards in a low-scoring affair at Kansas City. He nearly missed on a couple of big gains and is averaging a solid 10.1 yards per target this season. The Raiders have good boundary corners in Casey Hayward and Nate Hobbs, but are more vulnerable in the slot, where Wilson has run 78.3% of his routes.

GPP Play: Tre’Quan Smith (DK: $4,400, FD: $5,900)

Any Saints skill position player will be a volatile option until their QB situation solidifies. If Sean Payton continues to roll with Trevor Siemian and a traditional passing attack, Smith will be one of the primary beneficiaries. The big-bodied wideout has drawn 15 targets over his last two outings with nine catches and a TD in that span. He’s played on 93% of offensive snaps in those games and has significant upside given his potential red-zone usage.

Fade: Michael Gallup (DK: $5,900, FD: $6,500)

Even without Lamb in the lineup, Gallup could struggle in this matchup. Casey Hayward is the second-ranked CB this season per Pro Football Focus and he’s yet to allow a TD while being targeted at the third-lowest rate (7.4%) among CBs.

Gallup has lined up on the outside on 92.6% of snaps this year and he doesn’t have the same diverse route tree of Amari Cooper or Lamb. The Cowboys could get ahead early and grind the Raiders defense with their superior run game, leading to disappointing production from Gallup.

Tight End

Best Play: Darren Waller (DK: $6,400, FD: $7,300)

The Cowboys have been a ripe target for opposing TEs on Thanksgiving and Waller is quite clearly the best option on this short slate. While the Raiders are struggling, he’s still caught 18 of 26 targets for 232 yards over his last three outings.

Waller averages 63.9 receiving YPG with eight TDs over 21 games in stadiums with domes or retractable roofs. He’s averaging 12.7 yards per reception on the road this year and should get plenty of work with the Raiders (+7) expected to be trailing.

Value Play: Cole Kmet (DK: $3,700, FD: $5,000)

Andy Dalton only targeted his top TE twice in relief of Justin Fields on Sunday and Jimmy Graham saw three targets. But Kmet played on 90% of offensive snaps while Graham saw just 20% of offensive snaps, and he should quickly develop a connection with Dalton during this short week of practice. The Lions really struggle to stop the run and give up the highest red zone TD conversion rate (79.3%), so Kmet could wind up scoring off play-action.

GPP Play: Dawson Knox (DK: $4,400, FD: $5,900)

The Bills missed their athletic TE for three weeks and tried to get Knox involved a little too late in a blowout loss to the Colts on Sunday. Even in a sloppy rainstorm, Knox caught six balls for 80 yards while notably playing on 98% of offensive snaps. While the Saints have been stingy against TEs for multiple seasons, their defense has sprung leaks lately and their missing excellent coverage LB Kwon Alexander.

Fade: T.J. Hockenson (DK: $5,200, FD: $6,100)

After laying a goose egg in a tough matchup at Pittsburgh, Hockenson caught six of eight targets for 51 scoreless yards with Tim Boyle under center in Week 11. If Jared Goff (oblique) is able to return on Thanksgiving, his outlook might improve, but this is still a tough matchup against a Bears team that allows the seventh-fewest FPPG (5.2) to his position. With few dangerous receivers around him, Hockenson is often targeted with double teams.


NFL Week 12 Odds

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Nate Weitzer

Nate Weitzer is a successful DFS player at DraftKings and FanDuel with numerous tournament wins in NBA and NFL contests. He's been writing about DFS for several years, specializing in NBA picks and advice while continuing to build his bankroll across the daily fantasy industry. When he's not playing DFS, Weitzer is often covering high school sports in the greater Boston area for outlets such as The Boston Globe, or playing basketball himself. Follow Nate on Twitter @Nweitzer7.

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