Week 11 in the NFL concludes with Chiefs vs. Rams on Monday Night Football. For this game and every other primetime contest, we’ll break down the sports betting lines and recommend where to place your bets at DraftKings Sportsbook, BetStars, and FanDuel Sportsbook.
Keep an eye on injury news right up until kick off since things can change quickly in the NFL. Any player listed as questionable may see limited action or not suit up at all if he doesn’t respond well in warm-ups.
Week 11 Monday Night Football Betting
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Rams
The first thing that jumps out about this game is the point total — 63.5. That’s officially the highest in NFL history.
These offenses rank second and third in Drive Success Rate (DSR), points per drive, and the Rams lead the league in yards per drive (43.3). Defensively, the Chiefs are allowing the third-highest DSR.
Todd Gurley is a front-runner for MVP and leads the league with 17 total TDs. Patrick Mahomes is another front-runner for MVP and leads the league with 31 passing TDs.
Both studs draw unbelievable matchups tonight. The Chiefs rank 32nd in DVOA rush defense, and the Rams are first in DVOA rush offense. Gurley is indisputably the top floor-ceiling option in NFL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for the full weekend slate. He is basically the starting point for any lineups on the Showdown slate.
On the year, the Chiefs have barely faced any passing volume because they can’t stop the run. But KC is playing better pass defense of late (albeit against subpar opponents), allowing just 212 passing YPG on average in wins over the Bengals, Broncos, Browns, and Cardinals.
The Rams will likely establish the run and then take deep shots down the field to Brandin Cooks. A season-ending injury to Cooper Kupp (knee) will make the Rams easier to defend though. That’s a key component when considering on which side of the line to bet.
Then, Robert Woods should slide into Kupp’s role as slot WR and continue his steady production. Cooks led the Rams with 276 air yards, and Woods saw a team-high 24 targets when Kupp missed most of Week 6 and then all of Weeks 7-8. Cooks is always capable of hitting on big plays, but his real-life value is far greater than his fantasy box scores since he often draws defensive PI calls on deep shots.
Jared Goff has been lights out at home and has to be thrilled about playing at the Coliseum instead of in Mexico City. The third-year QB is sporting a 126.5 passer rating with a 14:2 TD:INT ratio and 10.2 YPA average over five home starts.
It’s worth noting Goff’s been sacked 11 times in those outings because KC is tied for the league lead with 31 sacks, and elite pass-rusher Justin Houston is back from a hamstring pull. Dee Ford can generate pressure on the other side too and try to get Goff on the move.
Back on the LA side, Josh Reynolds and TE Gerald Everett should become more involved with Kupp out. Neither is a particularly reliable option, but Reynolds’ spike in playing time will be more extreme. He’s worth a look as a low-cost DFS option or a fantasy streamer.
Matchups have mattered little to Patrick Mahomes, who has accounted for multiple TDs in 9-of-10 starts and thrown for 300-plus yards eight times this season.
The Rams are pressuring QBs at a league-high 37.2% clip, but much of that pressure is coming up the middle via elite DTs Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh. No matter — Mahomes is even better when flushed out of the pocket. You can bet Andy Reid has schemes designed to invite those tackles in before setting up screens for huge gains.
Allowing a 5.11 YPC clip that’s even worse than the Chiefs run defense, the Rams rank 29th in DVOA rush defense this year. Kareem Hunt should have little trouble establishing the run and producing gains on those aforementioned screens.
This matchup is also ideal for both of the Chiefs’ top pass catchers. Travis Kelce has cleared 78 receiving yards in seven games this year and has 5-plus catches in nine games. The Rams have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards (624) to opposing TEs.
Then, Tyreek Hill has been dynamic on the road throughout his career. He draws a juicy matchup against former teammate Marcus Peters, who has been hobbled by a calf injury all year and has yielded the second-most yards (613) and TDs (6) amongst qualified CBs this year.
Finally, Sammy Watkins faces off with middling CB Troy Hill since Aqib Talib (ankle) is expected to be out through the Rams’ bye week. Watkins will be out for revenge after the Rams let him go last season. Ultimately, he’s an economical DFS option to consider.
We thought a point total of 60 in the Chiefs-Patriots primetime game earlier this season was high, but the teams combined for a ridiculous 83 points. The Saints and Rams matchup in Week 9 also climbed to a 60-point total, and the teams combined for 80 points.
On the fast turf at the Coliseum, with no weather concerns of note, it’s hard to expect these two offenses to come up short of 60 combined points.
The Chiefs are 30th in points per drive allowed and the Rams 18th. Therefore, betting the Over (63.5) feels far safer than praying for a run-heavy game that leads to a surprisingly low point total. Bets are pretty much evenly split on the point total, but over 80 percent of money is on the Over.
The loss of Kupp is a huge blow to the Rams in this potential shootout. Goff is nowhere near as dangerous as Mahomes on off-schedule plays, and the Chiefs are going to force him off his primary read.
If KC can somehow contain Gurley and the Rams’ rushing attack, or build an early lead, the Chiefs should be able to stop Goff in crunch time and preserve a victory.
Approximately 80 percent of bets and money is coming in on the Chiefs (+3.5), and we’re bullish on KC winning this game outright, not just covering.
Thus, KC (+145) is worth taking on the Moneyline as well. The Chiefs have been blazingly hot since turning in a bad first half at the Patriots. They have looked like the best team in football next to the Saints. Bet on their talent and the prowess of Andy Reid, one of the few coaches creative and savvy enough to match wits with Sean McVay.