The Week 11 NFL schedule includes a divisional matchup between the Vikings and Bears. For this game and every other primetime contest, we’ll break down the sports betting lines and recommend where to place your bets at DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook.
Keep an eye on injury news right up until kick off since things can change quickly in the NFL. Any player listed as questionable may see limited action or not suit up at all if they don’t respond well in warm-ups.
Week 11 Sunday Night Football Betting Odds
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
NFL Week 11 Sunday Night Football Breakdown
This sets up as an extremely even matchup between the two top teams in the NFC North. Neither the Vikings or Bears have beaten a team with a winning record, but are a combined 11-1 against teams with losing records.
As always, Minnesota will have to throw the ball early and often to remain competitive. Chicago ranks first in DVOA defense and second in rush defense this year. The Bears and Vikings are among four teams allowing a league-low 3.6 YPC average.
Dalvin Cook flashed in limited action before the Vikings’ bye and should be over his hamstring injury after getting extra rest. He’ll likely be utilized more often than Latavius Murray since the Bears are giving up almost nothing on interior rushes.
The Vikings will get LT Riley Reiff (foot) and LG Tom Compton (knee) back after the bye, but may still struggle to run the ball and protect on the road.
Chicago rarely blitzes, but still ranks in the top five in sack rate (8.2%) and tackle-for-loss percentage (25.7%). Khalil Mack (ankle) should be much healthier after resting and seeing limited reps against cupcake opponents.
This sets up as a very tough spot for Kirk Cousins and a somewhat one-dimensional Vikings offense.
Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen have combined for 53% of targets and 67% of the Vikings’ air yards this season. Thielen has been limited by back and hip injuries this week and has struggled in his last four meetings against DC Vic Fangio and the Bears defense.
Given Thielen’s rampant success this season, Fangio should roll even more coverage towards him and that could allow Diggs to produce on the outside against bigger, but slower CBs Prince Amukumara and Kyle Fuller.
Thielen is still a great option to consider in NFL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel as the league leader in targets per game. The Bears have been more vulnerable to quick WRs and are giving up almost nothing to TEs and RBs in the passing game, so Kyle Rudolph could be a non-factor and Cook is a boom-bust option pending a big play or two.
Chicago ranks sixth in time of possession and correspondingly has the sixth-lowest pass rate this year.
Yet the Bears will also find it difficult to run on the Vikings’ fourth-ranked DVOA rush defense.
Minnesota has given up the eight-most receiving YPG (58.8) to opposing backs, so Tarik Cohen should see more usage than early-down workhorse Jordan Howard.
The Vikings are now 10th in DVOA pass defense and will be far healthier on that side of the ball after their bye week. Elite CB Xavier Rhodes (ankle) should be back to full strength, while FS Andrew Sendejo (groin), WLB Anthony Barr, NT Linval Joseph and DE Everson Griffen should be full systems go.
Minnesota ranks second in sack rate (9.4%) and QB hit rate (19.1%), however, Mitchell Trubisky is far more elusive than Kirk Cousins, or most QBs in the league.
Trubisky averages the second-most rushing YPG (35.6), but Minnesota’s speedy defense allows just 12.2 rushing YPG to quarterbacks. While Trubisky has torched bottom 10 pass defenses, his results have been moderate against any team with good personnel in the secondary.
Bears top WR Allen Robinson is due for major regression after shredding a Lions defense that was missing top CB Darius Slay.
Minnesota has primarily been vulnerable on the interior, ranking 27th in DVOA pass defense against opposing TEs and 28th against No. 2 WRs.
Anthony Miller has emerged as a reliable option while seeing 6.5 targets per game over his last 4 appearances. Trey Burton is also a solid option as the Bears best means of moving the ball over the middle, or countering the Vikings blitz-heavy attack.
This Sunday, FanDuel Sportsbook is offering a promotion in which you can bet on the first TD scorer, and receive your money back if they score later in the game instead of first.
We’d rank Tarik Cohen, Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, and then Trey Burton as the most likely players to open the game’s scoring.
NFL Week 11 Picks
Since these defenses rank first (Chicago) and third (Minnesota) in Drive Success Rate allowed, and the Vikings have the second-lowest TD rate allowed in red zone, this sets up as a low-scoring divisional slugfest.
We’re recommending the Under (45.5). Slightly over half of bets, but over 70% of money is coming in on the low side of that total.
Only the Vikings matchups with Packers, Saints, Rams have gone over 45.5 points and the Bears likely only rank seventh in PPG (26.9) because of their weaker schedule and dominant time of possession due to the league’s best defense.
We’re seeing more money come in on the Vikings, as QBs with name recognition and proven track records often inspire more confidence.
But again, the Bears (-2.5) have the best defense in the league and the Vikings offense is a bit too one-dimensional to consistently move the ball. We’re taking Chicago (-2.5), which leads the league in turnover differential (+13), and could turn the game on a key sack or sack-fumble courtesy of Mr. Mack.