Welcome to the Wednesday, Nov. 14 edition of the NBA Best Bets column. Here, I’ll strive to identify one NBA bet for tonight I feel has profit potential at DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, 888 Sportsbook and BetStars Sportsbook.
Depending on the circumstance, I’ll hone in on moneylines, point spreads, or projected totals. Sometimes I may even touch on multiple metrics. Then, I’ll take you on a fairly deep dive as to why.
Please note we’ll be referencing only legal, regulated sportsbook betting odds and totals here at PlayPicks. A “pick” is a wager that, as of the time of this writing, we feel confident recommending. A “lean” is a wager we favor over the other side. This play could end up on our card with the release of additional information.
Season to Date:
ATS Picks: 8-6 (.571)
ATS Leans: 4-3 (.571)
Moneyline: 4-2 (.667)
Over/Under: 3-0 (.1000)
11/14/18 NBA Betting Pick:
San Antonio Spurs (7-5) at Phoenix Suns (2-11)
Over/Under Total: 212
The Spurs return to the site of their largest margin of victory this season Wednesday. San Antonio walloped Phoenix by a 120-90 score on Halloween at Talking Stick Resort Arena. Their two biggest stars, DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge, unsurprisingly dominated in that game. DeRozan went off for 25 points, four rebounds, three assists, one steal and one block. Aldridge complemented his teammate’s efforts with 24 points, three boards, one assist and one block. Marco Belinelli (14 points) and Rudy Gay (12 points) had important contributions as well. The Spurs shot 55.4 percent overall while limiting the Suns to a 38.9 percent success rate.
San Antonio has stumbled a bit since that win, going 2-3. Two out of their three defeats came on the road in the team’s Florida swing. They surprisingly lost to both the Magic and Heat. However, the Spurs have also notched victories over Western Conference rivals New Orleans and Houston during that stretch. They impressively limited James Harden to 7-for-27 shooting in the latter contest. Although not quite capable of the same caliber of defense seen in Kawhi Leonard‘s heyday, the Spurs are still pretty effective at limiting scoring. They check into Wednesday’s game allowing the eighth-fewest points per contest (107.6). Dating back to the aforementioned victory over Phoenix, they’ve yielded under 100 points in four of the last six games.
The Suns are essentially on the other end of the spectrum. They come into Wednesday having dropped five of the six games since their loss to the Spurs. Phoenix has allowed between 116 and 119 points in their last three defeats. Despite the presence of talents such as Devin Booker, T.J. Warren and Deandre Ayton, scoring has been a problem. Phoenix has posted under 100 points in six of their 13 games. They’ve barely cleared the mark in three others. Their 101.2 points scored per game ranks last in the NBA. Conversely, the 114.7 per contest they’re allowing is the sixth most in the league. Plus, no team has made it easier for opposing shooters. The Suns are allowing a league-high 48.9 percent success rate from the floor. Some of that stems from how ineffective they are defending high-percentage shots. They allow the most points in the paint (55.1) per game — including a league-high 56.0 at home.
By The Numbers:
The Spurs are 6-3 (66.7 percent) against the number in conference games thus far this season, beating the spread by an average of 4.1 points. They’re also 3-1 (75.0 percent) versus the spread after a loss.
The Suns are 5-8 (38.5 percent) against the number overall this season. They’re also 4-6 (40.0 percent) versus the spread after a loss and 3-7 (30.0 percent) against the number in conference games.
The Final Word:
The number seems a bit thin given the disparity in the team’s records and the result of the first meeting between the two. However, San Antonio will rest Gay for this matchup, and that perhaps is playing at least a small part. Nevertheless, DeRozan and Aldridge remain formidable forces that are capable of capitalizing on the Suns’ defensive deficiencies. Moreover, San Antonio also will roll out impressive second-year player Derrick White this time around. White has averaged 12.5 points and 6.5 assists over his first two games as a starting point guard. His presence on the first unit gives the Spurs bench more depth by pushing Bryn Forbes to the second team. With plenty to attack with, the Spurs cover the number Wednesday, even if they don’t blow out the Suns.
The Pick: Spurs -4.5, Spurs moneyline (-190)