Welcome to the Monday, Nov. 12 edition of the NBA Best Bets column. Here, I’ll strive to identify one NBA bet for tonight I feel has profit potential at DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, 888 Sportsbook and BetStars Sportsbook.
Depending on the circumstance, I’ll hone in on moneylines, point spreads, or projected totals. Sometimes I may even touch on multiple metrics. Then, I’ll take you on a fairly deep dive as to why.
Please note we’ll be referencing only legal, regulated sportsbook betting odds and totals here at PlayPicks. A “pick” is a wager that, as of the time of this writing, we feel confident recommending. A “lean” is a wager we favor over the other side. This play could end up on our card with the release of additional information.
Season to Date:
ATS Picks: 8-6 (.571)
ATS Leans: 4-3 (.571)
Moneyline: 4-2 (.667)
Over/Under: 2-0 (.1000)
11/12/18 NBA Betting Pick:
Philadelphia 76ers (8-6) at Miami Heat (5-7)
Over/Under Total: 223.0
Something has to give when the Heat and Sixers meet Monday night at American Airlines Arena. Philadelphia has won just once in seven tries on the road while Miami has a lackluster 3-4 record on their home floor.
The Heat come in amid more of a tailspin. They’ve dropped two straight and five of seven overall. Meanwhile, the Sixers did drop their most recent contest to the Grizzlies, but they’ve won four of their last six. The recent acquisition of Jimmy Butler will only make Philly more dangerous, but it won’t play a part Monday. He’s not slated to make his team debut until Wednesday night.
Even though Miami has been hit hard by injuries and shooting has been inconsistent, they’ve managed to average a solid 110.6 points per game. However, they’ve largely negated that offense by allowing the exact same figure to their opponents on average. Then, they haven’t been very effective taking care of the ball, committing the fifth-most turnovers per contest (16.2). That’s led to the Heat getting involved in plenty of high-scoring affairs where they’ve been forced to remain aggressive. Miami boasts seven players with double-digit scoring averages. They’re allowing a 45.0 percent shooting on their home floor. In comparison, Philly boasts a 45.2 percent success rate on the road.
Even prior to Butler’s arrival, the Sixers have plenty of success putting points on the board. Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid, a still inconsistent but improving Markelle Fultz and J.J. Redick have been effective to varying degrees. A Miami squad with its previously described defensive deficiencies should facilitate more of the caliber of offense that’s enabled Philadelphia to score 111.9 points per contest. That figure is partly comprised of having tallied over 120 points in four games, including over 130 in two of those contests.
Finally, it’s worth noting the success some of each team’s key pieces enjoyed against their Monday opponent when both teams last met in last season’s playoffs:
Embiid: 18.7 points, 10.3 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 3.0 steals, and 1.3 blocks (three games)
Simmons: 18.2 points, 10.6 rebounds, 9.0 assists, and 2.4 steals (five games)
Goran Dragic: 18.6 points (46.7 percent shooting), 4.6 assists, 2.6 rebounds
Kelly Olynyk: 12.8 points (47.7 percent shooting, including 42.1 percent from three-point range), 4.6 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.2 blocks (five games)
Hassan Whiteside: 13 points, 13 rebounds, one block across 26 minutes in the only game he saw more than 15 minutes
By The Numbers:
The Sixers have gone over the projected total in eight of their 14 games (57.1 percent) this season. That includes four of their seven road games (57.1 percent), including three of the five (60.0 percent) in which they’ve been underdogs.
The Heat has gone over their projected total in nine of their 12 games (75.0 percent) this season. That includes five of their seven (71.4 percent) home games, including four out of the six (66.7 percent) in which they’ve been favorites. They’ve also exceeded the total in seven of their nine conference games (77.8 percent).
The Final Word:
Both teams’ defenses have betrayed them enough for them to have to take on a more aggressive approach to keep up. Each club checks in ranked in the top 10 in possessions per game. Philadelphia is averaging the third-most (109.5), while Miami is tenth (106.4). That combination of factors should lead to a more high-scoring affair than in season’s past between these clubs, putting them over the total in a game with a tight spread in favor of the home team.
The Pick: Over 223.0