Welcome to the Tuesday, 11/6/18 edition of the NBA Best Bets column. Here, I’ll strive to identify one NBA bet for tonight I feel has profit potential at DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, 888 Sportsbook, and BetStars Sportsbook.
Depending on the circumstance, I’ll hone in on moneylines, point spreads, or projected totals. Sometimes I may even touch on multiple metrics. Then, I’ll take you on a fairly deep dive as to why.
Please note we’ll be referencing only legal, regulated sportsbook betting odds and totals here at PlayPicks. A “pick” is a wager that, as of the time of this writing, we feel confident recommending. A “lean” is a wager that we favor over the other side. This play could end up on our card with the release of additional information.
Season to Date:
ATS Picks: 7-5 (.583)
ATS Leans: 3-2 (.600)
Moneyline: 3-2 (.600)
Over/Under: 1-0 (.1000)
11/6/18 NBA Betting Pick:
Brooklyn Nets (4-6) at Phoenix Suns (2-7)
Over/Under Total: 220.5
The Nets and Suns are mirror images in certain ways, reflecting across conferences and time zones. Both teams are in the midst of a rebuild. Yet each undeniably has talented building blocks. Both have promising young centers (Jarrett Allen and Deandre Ayton), veteran offseason acquisitions currently playing starting roles (Trevor Ariza and Jared Dudley) and dynamic high first-round picks in the backcourt (D’Angelo Russell and Devin Booker). Moreover, after both clubs played at top-five paces last season, they’re currently ranked in the bottom five thus far this season — right next to each other, in fact.
Now, Brooklyn is seemingly more battle-tested and has been competitive on a more consistent basis. The Nets have an impressive 122-97 win over the Philadelphia 76ers as the most recent victory on their resume. They’ve also toppled the Pistons by a 120-119 margin. Plus, they gave the Pelicans all they could handle on the road, losing 117-115. Then, they finished within six points of the defending champion Warriors in the following contest.
By contrast, the Suns fell to the Nuggets by 28, the Warriors by 20, the Lakers by 18, the Grizzlies by 21, and the Spurs by 30. The losses to Los Angeles and San Antonio both came at home. As those blowouts imply, Phoenix has a serious problem on defense. They’re currently allowing the 10th-most points per game (114.9) and the second-highest shooting percentage (50.7). The Nets have the firepower to exploit some of those deficiencies. They’re scoring a solid 109.9 points per game, and their 46.1 shooting percentage puts them in the top half of the league. Then, their 38.2 percent success rate from three-point range is the sixth highest in the NBA.
Five Brooklyn players — including four starters — are averaging between 11.4 and 20.0 points per contest. The fifth, Spencer Dinwiddie, offers starting-quality production off the bench with averages of 14.3 points, 4.0 assists, and 2.1 rebounds across 27.0 minutes. On the defensive side of the ball, it also bears mentioning that the Nets have been the stingiest team in the NBA at allowing three-pointers to two-guards (1.55 made threes per contest). That’s particularly relevant considering how typically effective the Suns’ biggest weapon, Devin Booker, is from long distance.
By The Numbers:
The Nets are 31-14-1 (NBA-best 68.9 percent) against the spread as a road team since the beginning of last season, including 3-2 (60.0 percent) as an away favorite. They’re also 19-13-1 (59.4 percent) against the number in non-conference games since the beginning of the 2017-18 campaign. Brooklyn also scored a 98-92 win in Phoenix last season and won there in each of the prior two seasons as well.
The Suns are 17-28-1 (37.8 percent) against the number as a home team since the beginning of last season, including 16-26 (38.1 percent) as a home underdog.
The Final Word:
The Nets are just a handful of points away from a winning record and have the offensive talent to take advantage of the holes in the Suns’ defense. They’re clearly comfortable playing at Talking Stick Resort Arena, having scored three straight victories there. The spread isn’t exactly a difficult one to cover, either, and both clubs are playing on equal rest. Although I envision Phoenix playing with pride at home, I see the Nets pulling away late by enough to surpass the slim one-point number.
The Pick: Nets -1, Nets moneyline (-114)