Welcome to the Wednesday, 10/31/18 edition of the NBA Best Bets column. Here, I’ll strive to identify one NBA bet for tonight I feel has profit potential at DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, 888 Sportsbook, and BetStars Sportsbook.
Depending on the circumstance, I’ll hone in on moneylines, point spreads, or projected totals. Sometimes I may even touch on multiple metrics. Then, I’ll take you on a fairly deep dive as to why.
Please note we’ll be referencing only legal, regulated sportsbook betting odds and totals here at PlayPicks. A “pick” is a wager that, as of the time of this writing, we feel confident recommending. A “lean” is a wager that we favor over the other side. This play could end up on our card with the release of additional information.
Season to Date:
ATS Picks: 6-4 (.600)
ATS Leans: 3-0 (1.000)
Moneyline: 3-1 (.750)
10/31/18 NBA Betting Pick:
Detroit Pistons (4-2) at Brooklyn Nets (2-5)
Over/Under Total: 214.0
The Nets are 2-5 and come into Wednesday’s contest as losers of three straight. Yet, they’re curiously up to three-point favorites. That merits a deeper look. The fact the Pistons are playing on the second night of a back-to-back may be partly responsible. Additionally, Brooklyn did give Detroit all it could handle Opening Night before the Pistons escaped with a 103-100 win on their home floor. Although, the fact Detroit didn’t have the services of staring two-guard Reggie Bullock or starting small forward Stanley Johnson for that game due to injuries is noteworthy.
They’re also the matter of the Nets playing competitively against another quality team in the Pelicans last Friday. Brooklyn took New Orleans to the limit on their home court in a 117-115 loss. An Anthony Davis last-minute steal finally clinched it for the Pels. Then, Detroit comes in having sullied their 4-0 start with two straight losses to the Celtics. And, the Pistons have been played it very close in all their victories, even besting the lowly Cavaliers by only seven points.
Therefore, it wouldn’t be the least unexpected to see this game go down to the wire. But, the boys from Motown have the firepower to keep it within a three-point number, especially since they’ll have their full complement of starters this time around. Additionally, Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond have the best individual matchups in this game by far They’re both highly capable of exploiting the opportunity. The Nets are ranked in the top five most generous teams in terms of points (26.5) and rebounds (19.3) per game allowed to centers. They’re also surrendering the most assists (6.1) and fourth-most steals (2.3) to power forwards.
Let’s look at each of the big men’s numbers in the opener against the Nets this season:
Griffin: 26.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, 6.0 assists over 34.0 minutes
Drummond: 24.0 points, 20.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.0 block over 32.0 minutes
Then, it’s worth noting both players and point guard Reggie Jackson enjoyed considerable success when seeing Brooklyn last season:
Griffin: 25.0 points, 7.0 assists, 3.0 rebounds, 2.0 steals (one game)
Drummond: 14.8 points, 18.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.3 blocks, 1.3 steals (four games)
Jackson: 29.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.0 steal (one game) (Note: Jackson also had a solid 19-point, four-assist, two-rebound performance versus the Nets in his season’s opener).
By the Numbers: The Pistons are 22-20-1 (52.4 percent) against the spread on the road since the beginning of last season, including 14-12-1 (53.8 percent) as an away underdog. The Pistons beat the Nets by an average of 18.3 points in their three victories against them last season. They’ve also lost by just one and three points in their two losses to Brooklyn since the beginning of the 2017-18 campaign.
Brooklyn is 19-22 (46.3 percent) versus the number as a home team since the beginning of last season, including 7-8 (46.7 percent) as a home favorite.
The Final Word: The line is somewhat surprising to say the least, given the disparity of the team’s records. The books may be anticipating some fatigue on the part of the Pistons after a tough loss to the Celtics on Tuesday. However, the matchup for the heart and soul of the Pistons — the frontcourt — is extremely favorable. Brooklyn’s penetrable defense (111.1 points allowed per game) should also facilitate production for the rest of the squad, which is now at full health. The game should be close, but I see Detroit having enough in the tank for the road cover.
Pick: Pistons +3