Week 11 NFL DFS Picks | Best Bets For DraftKings And FanDuel Lineups

Posted By Nate Weitzer on November 17, 2021

We’ve reached mid-November and are heading down the home stretch of the NFL’s first 17-game season,  Week 11 brings another full slate of Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) contests offered on DraftKings and FanDuel with big prize pools and exciting formats such as Best Ball and Showdown mode.

Whether you’re located in a state that won’t allow you to wager on NFL odds or just prefer DFS to traditional sports betting, there are many contests to choose from each and every week of the season. Here, we’ll provide you with lineup advice for a variety of contests including cash games (i.e. 50/50, H2H, and Double-Up) and GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool) tournaments.

NFL WEEK 11 DAILY FANTASY | BEST CONTESTS AT DRAFTKINGS & FANDUEL

Week 11 NFL DFS Lineup Picks | Predictions For DraftKings & FanDuel

Whether you play at DraftKings or FanDuel, we want to make the process of choosing your lineup as simple as possible. Below, we have suggestions for several different DFS contest types along with prices for each player from both sites.

Quarterback

Best Play: Dak Prescott (DK: $7,200, FD: $8,400)

The Cowboys and Chiefs have the largest implied total (56.5 points) on this slate by a wide margin after both offenses erupted for 40-plus points last week. If Patrick Mahomes ($7,600; $8,300) can continue to rekindle his magic with the Chiefs finding some rhythm at home, Dak Prescott and the Cowboys could be forced out of their preferred run-heavy game plan and get into a true shootout.

Prescott is averaging 361.7 passing YPG with an impressive 74.3% completion rate over three road starts this season. The Chiefs are yielding the third-most yards per pass (7.7) and have the third-lowest sack rate (4.01%) in the NFL, so Prescott should have time to identify the best matchups for his elite receivers against a below-average group of corners.

Value Play: Cam Newton (DK: $5,100, FD: $7,500)

Newton is far more expensive at FanDuel, where rushing stats are weighted more against a scoring system that doesn’t award as many passing bonuses.

He should still have a solid day through the air against a Washington team that coughs up the third-most passing YPG (279.3) and the fifth-most PPG (27.3) this season. The WFT ranked 26th in adjusted sack rate and will struggle to generate pressure with Chase Young (ACL) out for the year and Montez Sweat (jaw) potentially out again.

Newton struggled to hit downfield throws in his last year in Carolina and sole season in New England, but now that Josh Rhule is running the show, the Panthers’ staff should develop a good game plan to get him going on a combination of quick-hitters and designed runs.

GPP Play: Russell Wilson (DK: $6,500, FD: $7,300)

Wilson struggled badly in his return from a finger injury and was shut out for the first start of his career in Green Bay last Sunday. Well, we just saw Josh Allen and Dak Prescott bounce back with huge games after some of the worst starts of their respective careers.

The matchup isn’t ideal, but Wilson could certainly exceed the value of his price tag in a matchup with a Cardinals team that plays at the eighth-fastest pace in neutral situations. If Kyler Murray (ankle) and DeAndre Hopkins (hamstring) return, this game could quickly turn into a shootout.

Wilson averaged 292.5 passing YPG with a 71.8% completion rate and 5:3 TD:INT ratio in two meetings with Zona last season. Now Seattle has no running game at all and is at least trying to let Russ cook.

Fade: Aaron Rodgers (DK: $7,000, FD: $7,700)

The Vikings are yielding the most DK PPG to opposing QBs, which will make Aaron Rodgers a popular play in his second game back from a spat with COVID. He shredded an extremely young Vikings secondary last season, but prior to that was held to 223 passing YPG at 6.3 yards per completion and was sacked 13 times over four meetings with Minnesota in 2018 and 2019.

Mike Zimmer knows how to coach against the future Hall of Fame QB and the Packers are only averaging 6.8 yards per attempt with a 9:4 TD:INT ratio on the road this year.

Running Back

Best Play: Nick Chubb (DK: $7,800, FD: $9,000)

Chubb nearly cleared COVID protocols in time to play in New England on Sunday and he’ll almost certainly be ready to take on the Lions this week. With Baker Mayfield iffy due to shoulder and knee injuries, the Browns should lean on their elite ground game even more than usual in a juicy matchup.

Detroit ranks 29th in DVOA rush defense and gives up the third-most rushing YPG (135.7) this season. Chubb has strange home/road splits this season that should start to regress towards the mean with a good performance against the Lions. He should get all the work he can handle with Kareem Hunt (calf) still out and he could get LT Jedrick Wills (ankle) back to set that side of the formation.

Value Play: D’Onta Foreman (DK: $4,900, FD: $6,200)

The Titans’ coaching staff seem set on using Adrian Peterson in goal-line and short-yardage situations, but the 25-year-old Foreman is starting to pass the 36-year-old veteran in every other aspect of the game.

Foreman logged 21 snaps to Peterson’s 20 last week and tuend 13 touches into 78 scrimmage yards against the Saints top-rated run defense. Now he faces a Texans team that ranks 27th in DVOA rush defense and coughs up the second-most rushing YPG (136.1) and rushing TDs per game (1.7) on the year.

This is also a revenge game for Foreman, who was taken 89th overall by Houston in the 2019 draft.

GPP Play: A.J. Dillon (DK: $6,200, FD: $7,000)

The all-time rushing record holder at Boston College will get a chance to show what he can do with a full workload with Aaron Jones (MCL) out at least two weeks. Dillon is one of the best backups in the NFL and he’s averaging 4.2 YPC and 12.3 yards per reception in a limited role.

Green Bay’s offensive line ranks fourth in power run success per Football Outsiders and elite LT David Bakhtiari (ACL) could make his long-awaited return this week. Minnesota is coughing up the third-highest YPC average (4.7) and their defensive line ranks 29th against power run plays.

Fade: James Robinson (DK: $6,400, FD: $7,100)

Right now, Robinson is a touchdown-dependent back on a team that is averaging the second-fewest PPG (16.6) in football. He’s playing through a heel issue and will face a physical 49ers front that just held the Rams in check on Monday night.

San Francisco is allowing the eighth-fewest RB Yards (3.88) per carry and should be able to stack the box against the run considering how Trevor Lawrence has performed lately. Robinson is only playing on 62.7% of offensive snaps and has handled five goal-line carries all season. He could disappoint in a game with a 45-point implied total.

Wide Receiver

Best Play: Deebo Samuel (DK: $7,800, FD: $7,600)

While the Niners’ offense might not be as productive in Jacksonville on a short week as they were against the Rams on Monday night, most of their passing production should go through Samuel. The third-year man out of South Carolina has become an absolute terror this year a league-high 535 YAC and the second-most receiving YPG (108.8) among wideouts.

Samuel owns the second-highest target share (34%) at his position and sees a 32% target share in the red zone. Plus, he’s a viable option in the running game for SF and the Niners should get creative on the ground against a Jaguars team that’s surprisingly competent against power running attacks. Samuel is not expected to be limited by the bruised shin he suffered Monday.

Value Play: Jarvis Landry (DK: $5,100, FD: $6,300)

Donovan Peoples-Jones ($4,500; $5,700) is getting more attention now that Cleveland has officially parted ways with Odell Beckham Jr., but Jarvis Landry should be the top target this week, especially if Case Keenum is starting instead of Baker Mayfield.

Landry has gradually ramped up from an MCL sprain to log an 80% snap rate in Sunday’s blowout loss at New England. Now he faces a putrid defense and overmatched young slot CB A.J. Parker, who ranks 166th among qualified CBs in catch rate allowed (72.7%) on the season.

Landry is a possession receiver and that makes him more of a Cash game option, but he should be heavily involved with Kevin Stefanski likely instituting a conservative game plan when his squad is a 10-point home favorite.

GPP Play: Amari Cooper (DK: $6,200, FD: $7,300)

It was all about CeeDee Lamb ($7,600; $8,000) for the Cowboys’ offense last week in a plus matchup against Atlanta and the second-year stud should be able to play through an arm injury in an expected shootout at Arrowhead.

But veteran Amari Coopers could surprise as the highest-scoring wideout for Dallas this week. He’ll get more opportunities against RCB L’Jarius Sneed, who is yielding 12.1 yards per reception on a 65.8% catch rate when targeted this year. Cooper is averaging 85 receiving YPG with three TDs on the road and went nuts for an 11-210-2TD line on 19 targets against KC when he was still with the Raiders in 2017.

Fade: Tyreek Hill (DK: $8,200, FD: $8,500)

We’ll be bold enough to fade the most dangerous speed threat in the NFL this week in a game with a massive implied total. The Cowboys are underrated on the defensive side and rank third in DVOA pass defense while allowing a modest 7.1 yards per pass and 7.6 yards per attempt.

Dan Quinn has that unit playing on a string and they should be focusing on bracketing Hill wherever he goes after ‘Cheetah’ dropped a 7-83-2TD line at the Raiders on Sunday night. For what it’s worth, six of Hill’s eight TDs this year have come on the road.

Tight End

Best Play: Travis Kelce (DK: $7,100, FD: $7,300)

Now that the Chiefs offense appears to be back on track, fading Tyreek Hill almost locks you into paying up for Travis Kelce. Defenses have been unable to take away both top weapons and Patrick Mahomes showed a renewed willingness to take underneath throws to his TE on Sunday night, as Kelce caught 8 of 10 targets for 119 yards.

He leads all TEs in routes run (356), YAC (408), and receptions (62). The Cowboys linebackers aren’t great in coverage and Kelce should be able to find the gaps in their zone-heavy scheme.

Value Play: Cole Kmet (DK: $3,400, FD: $5,100)

Now that Justin Fields has decent command of Chicago’s offense, the Bears’ main pass catchers are fantasy-relevant. Kmet, a second-year TE out of Notre Dame, has displayed a good rapport with Fields since the preseason and caught six of eight targets for 87 yards when Fields posted the most passing yards (296) of his rookie season at Pittsburgh in Week 9.

Coming out of a bye week, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the young TE featured more against a Ravens team that coughs up the second-most receiving YPG (72.4) and third-most FanDuel PPG (14.4) to his position.

GPP Play: Zach Ertz (DK: $4,800, FD: $5,000)

If Kyler Murray (ankle) and DeAndre Hopkins (hamstring) return this week, the Cardinals offense will take a major step forward, and there will certainly be more openings underneath with Hopkins drawing coverage down the field.

Ertz is going to be a key outlet against a Seahawks defense that still plays a lot of base Cover-2 and ranks 25th in DVOA pass defense. The former Philadelphia Eagle caught 12 of 14 targets for 91 yards and a TD the last time he faced Seattle in 2019. Now locked into a division rivalry and sporting an 81% snap rate over the past two weeks, he is a main part of Arizona’s dangerous offense.

Fade: Dan Arnold (DK: $4,100, FD: $5,400)

Don’t fish for value on Jacksonville’s offense this week. At least not at the TE position against Fred Warner and company, who have allowed the second-fewest receptions per game (3.8) and receiving yards per game (32.7) to TEs this season.

Warner has been particularly tough to beat in coverage and the Niners just got safety Jimmie Ward back from injury to help shut down the Rams interior passing attack. Arnold has been heavily involved with 60-plus receiving yards and 7-plus targets in three straight games, but he could get shut down this week.

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Nate Weitzer

Nate Weitzer is a successful DFS player at DraftKings and FanDuel with numerous tournament wins in NBA and NFL contests. He's been writing about DFS for several years, specializing in NBA picks and advice while continuing to build his bankroll across the daily fantasy industry. When he's not playing DFS, Weitzer is often covering high school sports in the greater Boston area for outlets such as The Boston Globe, or playing basketball himself. Follow Nate on Twitter @Nweitzer7.

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