Hope that chalk tasted good last week.
As I’ve seen over the last several weeks since launching this tool, I’ve always been able to find good GPP plays by making an L on the Value vs. Buzz Charts, as you can see below (excuse the shoddy Phil Simms-esque telestrator work ):
This L makes sure you include the top value/low price chalk plays that EVERYONE is on, that you can’t miss (i.e. Jeremy Hill a few weeks ago, Fitz/Tre Mason last week, etc.), as well as low-price/top value guys that are not as hyped, and then the higher priced guys who are getting no hype. It’s where you want to live in GPP play.
We will have another update of the latest Chalk Plays and Social Buzz closer to Sunday but for now we will give you an early week look to help set your Thursday Night Lineups. On to the Week 14 Picks!
This week in the super-chalky part of the curve is Colin Kaepernick. A lot of the buzz is butthurt from how he has burned people in the past. He only needs 18 points to reach value this week. Plus, RYAN FITZPATRICK THREW FOR 6 TDs last week against Tennesee. Literally anything is possible in this version of football that the NFL is peddling. I’m definitely grabbing some shares in GPP play.
Other guys in the meaty L part of the curve are Cam Newton, Matt Stafford and Aaron Rodgers. Since the sample size is low in the early part of the week, Cam only has a tiny bit more buzz than Stafford, so I wouldn’t hesitate in throwing him out there and saving a few hundred dollars over Matty Staff. If I HAVE to save up for QB, A-Rod has low buzz and his huge price tag will keep lots of people away. He needs 24 points to make value.
People will likely be saving up for Brees and Peypey if they want to spend a lot at the position, otherwise, players looking for “chalky” and cheap plays will be going after Romo, J-Cutty and Russ Wilson. Would love Russ in cash games this week with his low price and great buzz, or maybe a Romo/Dez stack.
Frank Gore has a bargain basement price against Oakland. The crowd is buzzing because Kap and Gore both have an opportunity to make up for their subpar seasons by running up the score against Oakland. I will slavishly have shares of both in some GPP lineups. Can’t ignore the super low price and good projection of value. But I would caution having loads of exposure to both.
If you want to continue along the L part of the curve, there are a lot of options at RB this week. Joique Bell, Rashad Jennings (if he plays), Mark Ingram are all attractively priced. If you want to spend more, Arian Foster, Ed Lacy, Demarco Murray and Lev’eon Bell are all pretty under the radar.
This week Kenny Stills is once again in the perfect part of the chart for chalk plays. Would love him in all lineups, but you can certainly try fading in huge tourneys. It’s a lot easier to make a great lineup with such a low price and high projection.
Right now in the early part of the week, there’s not much separating the higher priced WRs in terms of buzz. Randall Cobb, Julio Jones, Dez Bryant and AJG appear to be under the radar somewhat in the mid price range. I’d love OBJ and Gordon in cash game lineups.
A super-contrarian, higher-priced dart throw is Greg Olsen.
If you want to spend a ton on TE, Jimmy Graham and Gronk are always out there. Most of the chatter is about Jimmy’s big fat zero last week, so I’d still consider him a contrarian play, while the crowd is earnestly talking about Gronk as a viable TE option. I’d only have a few shares of Graham in GPP play, but wouldn’t mind Gronk in cash games.