Week 7 in the NFL concludes with the Falcons vs. Giants on Monday Night Football. For this game and every other primetime contest, we’ll break down the sports betting lines and recommend where to place your bets at DraftKings Sportsbook, 888 Sportsbook, and FanDuel Sportsbook.
Keep an eye on injury news right up until kick off since things can change quickly in the NFL. Any player listed as questionable may see limited action or not suit up at all if he doesn’t respond well in warm-ups.
Week 7 Monday Night Football Betting
New York Giants (25) at Atlanta Falcons (29)
On paper, this a smash spot for both offenses on the fast turf of the Georgia Dome. Hamstrung by injuries at all three levels, the Falcons’ defense is allowing the second-most PPG (32), third-most YPG (417.2), and the most points per drive (3.0) this season.
While Eli Manning has shown painful limitations this season, even he should be able to produce against a secondary that ranks 29th in DVOA pass defense.
Slot receivers and TEs have pounded Atlanta all year while the Giants expect athletic TE Evan Engram (knee) to return for this potential shootout. Plus, Sterling Shepard and Odell Beckham Jr. are both capable of long runs out of the slot, making it easy for Manning to rack up yardage.
For instance, the Falcons’ strategy seems to be to allow the short throws and then make tackles, but OBJ could make that strategy foolhardy by breaking a slant route for a long TD. His floor is a bit lower than usual given Manning’s play, but OBJ has plenty of upside in this contest. Engram and Shepard will be safer per-dollar options in Showdown DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Now, the best play of this one-game slate and perhaps the best RB1 in Week 7 will likely be Saquon Barkley. Fresh off a dominant performance against the Eagles’ elite run defense, Barkley faces a Falcons defense that’s giving up the most receptions (53) to RBs for a third straight season. Atlanta ranks 31st in DVOA rush defense and is giving up the fourth-highest YPC (5.1) average this season.
Let’s now turn to the other offense. Despite missing some practice time during the week, Calvin Ridley (ankle) and Mohamed Sanu (hip) are both expected to play. Justin Hardy could have a role if either player is nicked up. Still, he’s nothing more than a desperation dart throw.
Julio Jones may benefit from Ridley and Sanu playing by avoiding double coverage. Jones is being underutilized in the red zone once again under OC Steve Sarkisian but should be shadowed by Giants CB Janoris Jenkins, who has yielded 4 TDs over his last two games.
The Giants have allowed the fifth-most passing plays of 20-plus yards (25), and Matt Ryan has been lights out at home with a 76.2% completion rate, 13:1 TD:INT ratio, and 134.4 passer rating over four starts this year. With the Falcons defense sure to keep hemorrhaging points, Ryan’s volume is secure.
Falcons TE Austin Hooper is breaking out in his third season. With opposing defense keying on Jones, he’s drawn the most red-zone targets (6) on the team and the second-most targets (37) overall. The Giants have yielded 289 yards and 3 TDs to opposing TEs over their last four games.
Atlanta’s backfield is more of a question mark. With Devonta Freeman (groin) on I.R., Tevin Coleman and Ito Smith have shared work in a near 50-50 split.
The Giants have an average run defense but have yielded 100 rushing yards in five of their last six games. The G-Men also rank dead last in sacks (7) this season, and Ryan’s had much better protection at home. The return of Olivier Vernon (ankle) provided a brief spark but did little to turn the Giants defense around last week.
Finally, steady veteran kicker Matt Bryant (hamstring) is out for Atlanta. The Falcons signed a solid replacement in Giorgio Tavecchio, who hit 76 percent of his FG attempts and 97 percent of extra points during his rookie year with Oakland.
Eli Manning tends to surprise when the public doubts him. Yet at 37 years old, it’s possible he is simply incapable of performing against the best athletes in the world.
Manning has had incredible trouble evading any sort of pass rush and would depend on a squeaky-clean pocket to get the ball downfield. On that note, Atlanta expects to get difference-making NT Grady Jarrett (ankle) back along with DE Derrick Shelby (groin).
Despite the Falcons’ struggles on the interior, they have solid CBs in Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford. If those veterans can hold up against OBJ and Shepard, the pass rush could get home and neutralize Manning.
Regarding the bettor figures, over 70 percent of bets are coming in on Atlanta (-3.5) as well as 70% of the money. Meanwhile, the Giants are extremely limited by their aging QB, so we like the home team in a ‘get right’ spot against a bad Giants team.
Atlanta’s offensive production is secure against a Giants team that’s given up 33-plus points in three straight games. Manning’s supporting cast is likely good enough to get the Giants to 20 points and make the Over (52.5) a secure bet.
Approximately 72 percent of bets and about 60% of the money are on the Over. There’s also some great promos for the game tonight.
At FanDuel Sportsbook, a 14+ point win will double your moneyline bet up to $100.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, there’s a nice odds boost opportunity for the game tonight…Eli Manning interception + NYG loss at +150!
At BetStars, you can get +125 odds on Matt Ryan throwing for 300+ yards with Julio Jones going over 100 yards receiving.