The Week 7 NFL schedule includes the high-powered Chiefs in another Sunday night tilt. This time, Kansas City is hosting the Bengals in an AFC crossover matchup. For this game and every other primetime contest, we’ll break down the sports betting lines and recommend where to place your bets at DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook.
Keep an eye on injury news right up until kick off since things can change quickly in the NFL. Any player listed as questionable may see limited action or not suit up at all if they don’t respond well in warm-ups.
Week 7 Sunday Night Football Betting
Cincinnati Bengals (26.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (32)
After getting confused initially by Bill Belichick’s defensive game plan, Patrick Mahomes proceeded to light up New England’s struggling secondary for 188 yards and 4 TDs while completing 9-of-12 passes in the second half last Sunday night.
Marvin Lewis and the Bengals are unlikely to baffle Mahomes for even part of this game, and Cincy’s defensive personnel is only marginally better than the Patriots. Cincy ranks 20th in DVOA pass defense and 26th against opposing top receivers.
While Tyreek Hill has posted strange home/road splits in the past, he’s become a more consistent explosive option with Mahomes under center. The Bengals have allowed the seventh-most receiving yards (1,105) and sixth-most receptions (86) to WRs this year.
The more intriguing option for NFL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel is Travis Kelce. He has a great floor-ceiling combination against a Bengals team that’s allowed the second-most receptions (62) to opposing TEs and ranked 30th in DVOA pass defense against the position last year.
If Cincy sells out to stop the Chiefs main weapons, Sammy Watkins could benefit. He has a low aDOT (7.4) but has seen 27 targets over his last four full games and could see an upgrade to his matchup if Bengals CB Darqueze Dennard (shoulder) is ruled out. Bengals SS Shawn Williams (concussion) is also questionable.
The Bengals rank 25th in DVOA rush defense and have allowed the ninth-most receiving yards (305) to opposing RBs this season. That unit has become far worse after losing DT Ryan Glasnow (knee) and WLB Nick Vigil (knee) to serious injuries. Vontaze Burfict is back however, and is a big part of this Bengal D.
Kareem Hunt isn’t seeing a ton of usage given the Chiefs’ aggressive offensive approach, but is capable of breaking big plays and has handled 13 carries inside the 10-yard line this season. He’s also becoming more involved in the passing game with 12 targets over his last 3 appearances.
On paper, this is a juicy matchup for every skill position player on the Bengals. The Chiefs have allowed the most pass plays of 20-plus yards and the second-most completions per game (28.5) this season.
A.J. Green finally has the help he needs on the other side of the field in the form of Tyler Boyd. Those receivers have combined for a 47.3% target share this season and have dominated scoring opportunities, with Green seeing 12 red zone looks.
Boyd has converted all seven of his red zone targets into TDs and runs 70% of his routes out of the slot, where he’ll primarily face aging CB Orlando Scandrick.
The Chiefs have also been abysmal against TEs, so C.J. Uzomah should also be able to find some success. He ran 41 pass routes last week with second-string TE Tyler Kroft (shoulder) unavailable. Boyd is functioning as a big-bodied receiver and can also capitalize on KC’s 27th-ranked TE coverage.
The Chiefs have been the worst defense in the NFL against the run, allowing a league-worst 5.36 YPC along with the most receiving yards (510) to opposing RBs this season.
Joe Mixon has a stranglehold on backfield duties with Gio Bernard (knee) out at least one more game. Game flow might not work enough in his favor for Mixon to see 15-plus carries, but he’s likely to produce in the first half and could remain involved if the Bengals are in comeback mode in the second half. He can catch passes as well, and will be involved in that aspect.
While KC owns the second-best drive success rate and has scored the second-most PPG (35.8) in the NFL this season, Cincy isn’t far behind with the fourth-best drive success rate and the sixth-most PPG (29).
The Bengals should be able to move the ball against Chiefs defense that ranks 32nd in DVOA rush defense and 26th in yards allowed per pass.
Despite their weakness in rush defense, the Chiefs have faced the most pass attempts this year due to game flow. Cincy has faced the second-most. This has the makings of a game that will be elongated with the trailing team (likely the Bengals) throwing down the final whistle, explaining the lofty point total.
NFL Week 7 Picks
The Bengals play at the fastest pace in the league when trailing by 7-plus points and the Chiefs play at the fifth-fastest pace in neutral situations.
Kansas City is likely to top 30 points against a team that’s allowed the eight-highest success rate defensively. On the other side, the Chiefs have allowed the highest success rate.
The Over (57) is a solid bet and around 70% of bets are coming in on that side of the line. Teams have combined for at least 65 points in 4 of the Chiefs last 6 games. The Bengals games average 55.3 combined points per game.
The Chiefs (-6) are also seeing heavy action, and will continue to be a betting darling of the public. That said, over 60% of money coming in on KC, so the sharps seem to agree that is the safer bet. The Chiefs have won their last five regular season home games by double digits and could blow this one open if the Bengals are not able to keep pace.
The Bengals are 1-16 in primetime games (3-13-2 against the spread) under Marvin Lewis and have lost eight straight night games. They’ve flopped in primetime too often to count on their offensive production, and the Chiefs offense should continue to thrive at home.
The best bet in this one seems to be the Over, as it looks like a classic shootout situation with two good offenses carving up two poor defenses.