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NFL Sports Betting

Week 6 in the NFL concludes with the Packers hosting the 49ers on Monday Night Football. For this game and every other primetime contest, we’ll break down the sports betting lines and recommend where to place your bets at DraftKings Sportsbook888 Sportsbook, and FanDuel Sportsbook.

This advice is also relevant for fantasy contests on sites such as DraftKings and FanDuel and can be helpful in seasonal fantasy leagues as well.

Keep an eye on injury news right up until kick off since things can change quickly in the NFL. Any player listed as questionable may see limited action or not suit up at all if they don’t respond well in warm-ups.

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Week 6 Monday Night Football Betting

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers 

DraftKings Sportsbook Odds: Packers -8.5, 46 total 
888 Sportsbook OddsPackers -8.5, 46 total
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: Packers -8.5, 46 total
BetStars Sportsbook OddsPackers -9, 46.5 total

Both teams enter this Monday night showdown with an extra day to rest up their ailing corps of receivers.

Randall Cobb (hamstring) seems likely to miss a third consecutive game with his injury, while Geronimo Allison has a chance to return from his own hamstring injuries after clearing concussion protocol. Both players are game-time decisions and won’t announce their status until after pre-game warm-ups. With a Week 7 Bye looming, a veteran like Cobb may play it safe and sit.

For the 49ers, Marquise Goodwin (quad/hamstring) is questionable, Dante Pettis (knee) remains out, and Pierre Garcon (shoulder) appears to be hitting the downswing of his long career. Garcon and Goodwin are expected to play through their nagging injuries.

Starting LT Joe Staley (knee) is on the wrong side of questionable and third WR Trent Taylor (back) is not expected to suit up for SF.

Most importantly, Matt Breida (ankle) is questionable to suit up for San Francisco, so uninspiring plodder Alfred Morris could lead the backfield. Breida is “pushing to play” through his ankle injury, so he could be out there in a timeshare with Morris. He could be less effective as a shifty player that depends on burst.

Of course, Jimmy Garoppolo is done for the year, so C.J. Beathard will captain the struggling Niners offense. Beathard’s top target, former college teammate George Kittle, is also limited with a knee issue. But Kittle is the best bet to move the chains against a Packers LB corps that can struggle in coverage.

While one of their three home games came against a pathetic Bills offense, the Packers defense has been great at home. Green Bay is allowing just 308 YPG with 13 sacks (not including the erroneous roughing call on Clay Matthews) and is holding QBs to a 79.5 passer rating at Lambeau Field this year. San Francisco’s offensive line ranks 27th in adjusted sack rate, and the Packers defense ranks third in that category.

After struggling badly in the secondary last year, Green Bay ranks 11th in DVOA pass defense and is allowing the second-fewest passing YPG (208.8) while funneling opposing offenses inside the numbers. They’ve struggled against the run with DT Muhammad Wilkerson (ankle) on I.R., but SF ranks 20th in DVOA rush offense.

Alfred Morris has only averaged 3.5 or more YPC in one matchup this season. That was against the Chiefs’ league-worst run defense. For us, if Breida is out and the 49ers can’t run the ball, this game is likely to turn into a blowout.

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Despite injuries to multiple receivers and Aaron Rodgers (knee, hamstring), the Packers still rank seventh in DVOA offense and seventh in rushing offense. Rodgers should have no trouble shredding the 49ers’ Cover 3-based scheme, which has allowed 12 TDs with just one interception this season.

Aaron Jones saw 29 snaps (38%) in a win over Buffalo and 22 (27%) in a loss to Detroit. Jamaal Williams played on 33 snaps (40.7%) and caught a TD pass from Rodgers in Detroit. But Jones is averaging 6.1 YPC to Williams’ 3.7 YPC average and is the superior runner. With game flow likely to work in his favor, Jones is a reliable option in Showdown DFS contests on DraftKings.

Arguably the best play on this one-game DFS slate, Davante Adams draws his best matchup of the season. The 49ers rank 23rd in DVOA pass defense and have allowed an above average 812 receiving yards and 6 TDs to opposing WRs this season. Richard Sherman (heel) is back but is playing stationary LCB. Meanwhile, Niners RCB Ahkello Witherspoon has given up four of those receiving scores. Adams runs 70 percent of his routes at right cornerbacks.

Now, Jimmy Graham should bounce back after a disappointing game against the Lions’ stingy TE defense. The Niners are playing a lot of zone, and Rodgers can find his reliable, but slow TE in the holes of that Cover 3 scheme. SF has given up four receiving TDs to TEs this season.

At 6-foot-3, 200 pounds, Marquez Valdes-Scantling matches up well against Niners slot CB K’Waun Williams (5-9, 185 pounds). His role is dependent on the status of Cobb, but MVS could be a solid contrarian play if the public fades him due to the potential return of Geronimo Allison.

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The Picks

Green Bay ranks 19th in points per drive (1.9) partially due to Mason Crosby’s ineffectiveness kicking last week. The Packers rank 30th in pace of play during neutral situations, but the Niners rank fifth in that category. These numbers seem bound to regress as Rodgers gets healthier and HC Mike McCarthy begins to be more aggressive with his play calling.

Green Bay’s pace of play is the seventh fastest in the league with a seven-plus point lead, so perhaps the Over (46.5) will hit as the Pack continue to pile it on and Beathard/Kittle do their thing in garbage time.

There’s almost no doubt Rodgers and company will be able to win at Lambeau where he’s 61-15 with a 108.7 passer rating in his career. Yet his tenuous health, combined with the Packers shaky play-calling, makes a 9-point win far from a certainty. A teaser of Packers/Over could get the spread down to -2.5 and the total down to 40 and might be the way to go tonight.

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