NASCAR DFS Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Picks for 1000Bulbs.com 500
Each week, we’ll have an early week cheat sheet for the DFS NASCAR contests at DraftKings. This week, we look at the 1000Bulbs.com 500 at Talladega.
TOP 5 FAVORITES TO WIN
1. Joey Logano – There are two strategies for picking drivers at restrictor-plate race tracks. DFS players can lean on restrictor-plate track history, but even then, it’s only accurate half of the time. The other plan is to pick drivers that start in the back and hope they do not get caught in a wreck. Logano has great track history at Talladega. He won his fourth career plate race in the spring Talladega race.
2. Brad Keselowski – Penske builds the best plate cars. The No. 2 car is the best plate-track car, but Keselowski has nothing to show for it. He was visibly frustrated after wrecking at Daytona in the summer race. He’s fed up with his bad luck and the stupidity of other drivers. Keselowski has wrecked in each of the last four Daytona races and two of the last four Talladega races. How can he be a favorite? The car is that good. If he doesn’t wreck, then he’ll likely win.
3. Aric Almirola – Over the last two years, Almirola is the No. 1 plate driver. His average finish of 10th doesn’t seem that great, but he’s only wrecked once over that span. Wins are great, but surviving the carnage is the real trick. If a DFS player can pick six drivers that do not wreck, then that player is going to win big money.
4. Ryan Newman – Almirola has a slightly better car, but that doesn’t matter at the plate tracks. Inferior cars can earn top 10s at Talladega, and Newman’s car isn’t even that bad. Newman has earned a top 10 finish in five of the last seven plate races. There are two ways that you can look at it. Either Newman has a knack for plate racing, or he’s due for a wreck.
5. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. – Last year, Stenhouse won two plate races. Since then, every time NASCAR returns to a plate track, Stenhouse drives like he is a big deal. Confidence is great, but too much confidence causes problems. Stenhouse caused five wrecks in the Daytona summer race and became the laughing stock of NASCAR. Here’s hoping the humbling allows Stenhouse to limit his aggression and regain his plate-track winning ways.
LONG SHOTS TO SCORE BIG
1. Chris Buescher – In the last two years, Buescher has six top 15 finishes in the seven plate races (four top 10 finishes).
2. Kurt Busch – He won the 2017 Daytona 500, and he finished second in the 2018 spring Talladega race.
3. A.J. Allmendinger – A plate track is a plate track. Allmendinger has four top 10 finishes in his last four Daytona races. He’s wrecked in the last three Talladega races.
Joey Logano – Outside of the plate tracks, he’s not a contender to win a race, but in the last 12 races, Joey Logano has eight top 10s.
Chase Elliott – In the last 11 races, Elliott has two wins, nine top 10s, and six top 5s.
Kurt Busch – Last week, Kurt earned his third top five finish in the last four races. He has ten top 10s in the last 12 races.
Joey Logano (Spring 2018)
Brad Keselowski (Fall 2017)
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. (Spring 2017)
Joey Logano (Fall 2016)
Brad Keselowski (Spring 2016)
PICK TO WIN
Brad Keselowski – He’s due. Keselowski will have the fastest car, so he should be upfront away from the carnage all day. His six plate-track wins are the most among active drivers.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.