Week 10 NFL DFS Picks | Best Bets For DraftKings And FanDuel Lineups

Posted By Nate Weitzer on November 10, 2021

We’re past the halfway point of the NFL’s first 17-game season and Week 10 brings a fresh batch of Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) contests offered on DraftKings and FanDuel with big prize pools and exciting formats such as Best Ball and Showdown mode.

Whether you’re located in a state that won’t allow you to wager on NFL odds or just prefer DFS to traditional sports betting, there are many contests to choose from each and every week of the season. Here, we’ll provide you with lineup advice for a variety of contests including cash games (i.e. 50/50, H2H, and Double-Up) and GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool) tournaments.


Week 10 NFL DFS Lineup Picks | Predictions For DraftKings & FanDuel

Whether you play at DraftKings or FanDuel, we want to make the process of choosing your lineup as simple as possible. Below, we have suggestions for several different DFS contest types along with prices for each player from both sites.


Best Play: Tom Brady (DK: $7,600, FD: $8,300)

The GOAT comes off a bye week to face a Washington team that ranks 31st in DVOA pass defense and coughs up the most passing YPG (286.8) this season. Brady is averaging the most passing YPG (327.1) with Tampa passing at the highest rate (66.9%) and facing the highest pass-play rate (68%) due to their elite run defense.

Tampa is playing at the fastest pace in the NFL during the first half and Washington is playing at the second-fastest pace when either trailing or leading by six or more points. Washington’s pass rush hasn’t been up to par this season with just 19 sacks over eight games and Brady thrives when given a clean pocket.

Value Play: Taylor Heinicke (DK: $5,400, FD: $6,900)

As mentioned above, Tampa faces the highest pass-play rate in the NFL and Washington will likely be chucking it all over the yard in an effort to keep up with Brady and company. Heinicke made a name for himself in the playoffs last January by passing for 306 yards with a passing TD and rushing score against this defense.

He’s been under fire lately with nine sacks and four fumbles (lost one) over his past two starts, but Washington’s maligned offensive line will be healthier coming out of their bye week. Heinicke has topped 40 rushing yards in three outings this season and Tampa’s aggressive defense has given up two rushing scores to QBs this year.

GPP Play: Dak Prescott (DK: $6,900, FD: $8,100)

Dak will almost certainly bounce back after the second-worst start of his career. The Cowboys and Falcons have been assigned the highest total (56) of any Week 10 game by far and Prescott will assuredly fare better in this matchup. Denver was able to pressure Prescott with LT Tyron Smith (ankle) inactive, but Smith could be back next week and his backup should still be able to hold up against a Falcons defense that owns the lowest adjusted sack rate (3.6%) in football.

Prescott is sporting a 12:2 TD:INT ratio with a 115.5 passer rating at home this season. He hasn’t been forced to throw much with Dallas trucking opponents for 171 rushing YPG at home, but could look to make a statement following an all-around dud for Big D last week.

Fade: Jalen Hurts (DK: $6,500, FD: $7,700)

The Broncos’ defense is for real. They were down several starters at the outset of their 4-game losing streak and have turned it around over their last three games, allowing just 14.3 PPG and 233.6 passing YPG with eight sacks and three interceptions in that span.

Denver is allowing the fewest rushing attempts per game (3.25) and just 12.1 rushing YPG to QBs this season, which is where Hurts derives a lot of his value. Since Philly’s defense is allowing the highest completion rate (75.5%) in the NFL, checkdown maestro Teddy Bridgewater should be able to control the clock and keep Hurts off the field.

Running Back

Best Play: Dalvin Cook (DK: $8,000, FD: $8,500)

While Cook is having a typically awesome year in terms of production, the Vikings are struggling to finish in the red zone. He’s averaging 5.2 YPC and 98.6 rushing YPG over his last five contests and played on a season-high 80% of offensive snaps last week in an overtime loss at Baltimore.

Now Cook faces a Chargers team that gives up the most rushing YPG (161.6) by far at a 5.0 YPC clip and allows 1.4 rushing TDs per game. He’s third among RBs in opportunity share (80.2%) and is in line for positive regression in terms of finding the end zone.

Value Play: D’Ernest Johnson (DK: $4,700, FD: $5,400)

If Nick Chubb produces two negative COVID tests 24 hours apart, he’ll be cleared to rejoin the Browns ahead of Sunday’s tilt in New England. Even if Chubb is active, D’Ernest Johnson should mix in for plenty of touches with Kareem Hunt (calf) still on IR.

Johnson has played on roughly 33% of snaps since Chubb got back in the lineup and he broke out for 168 scrimmage yards and a TD with both backs out in Week 7 against Denver. The Patriots have a middling run defense and have allowed the second-most receiving yards (593) to RBs this season.

GPP Play: J.D. McKissic (DK: $5,200, FD: $5,400)

McKissic is a better play in PPR formats and that’s why he’s an extreme value option at FanDuel, where he still has great upside for tournament lineups. Washington (+9.5) will almost certainly be playing from behind against the Bucs this week and teams aren’t even trying to run between the tackles against Vita Vea, Ndamukong Suh and that Tampa front.

McKissic is the second leading receiver on his team with 33 catches for 332 yards and leads all RBs in yards per touch (7.1) this season. Tampa is yielding the third-most receptions per game (7.25) and has given up four receiving TDs to his position.

Fade: Jonathan Taylor (DK: $8,100, FD: $9,400)

The Colts’ offense has been on fire lately and Taylor is carrying the load with 109.4 rushing YPG at a 6.7 YPC clip over his last five starts. He was excellent in two meetings with Jacksonville last season, but could disappoint relative to his price tag this week.

The Jags are facing the tenth-lowest rush-play rate (43%) and giving up the third-fewest YPC (3.8) this season. They rank eighth in DVOA rush defense and dead last in DVOA pass defense, so Indy could install more of a pass-heavy game plan to beat their division rivals.

Wide Receiver

Best Play: CeeDee Lamb (DK: $7,000, FD: $7,700)

Amari Cooper is battling a hamstring injury and that led to Lamb drawing a team-high nine targets in a flat performance by the Dallas offense last week. He’s in line to bounce back this week against Atlanta’s 28th-rated pass defense, which has coughed up 11 receiving TDs to WRs over eight games this year.

During his rookie season, Lamb averaged 76.9 receiving YPG and 14.3 yards per catch with five total TDs at home. His production has been lower in Dallas this year with the Cowboys leaning on their run game, but this game projects as a high-scoring affair with the largest implied total on Sunday’s slate.

Value Play: Randall Cobb (DK: $4,300, FD: $5,500)

The 11-year veteran remained involved with Davante Adams and Allen Lazard back from COVID protocols last Sunday. Cobb still played on 52% of offensive snaps at KC and could be featured more this week if Aaron Rodgers returns and lobbies for his old friend to be utilized in the game plan. Seattle runs a very predictable base defense that has yielded the fifth-most passing YPG (273.9) on the second-most attempts per game (40.4).

Cobb demonstrated his impressive improvisational ability and caught a 35-yard pass from Jordan Love last week. He can create those types of plays with much more consistency if Rodgers is back under center.

GPP Play: Tyler Lockett (DK: $6,500, FD: $7,100)

Just when he was starting to find a rhythm with backup QB Geno Smith, Tyler Lockett gets his main man back. Russell Wilson (finger) will start for Seattle in Green Bay this week and that boosts the outlook of both Lockett and D.K. Metcalf ($6,800; $8,000) significantly.

Lockett might benefit more directly from the continued absence of Jaire Alexander (IR, shoulder) who is a big reason for the Packers’ success in pass defense. Green Bay has limited deep shots effectively this year but is allowing the second-highest TD conversion rate (76%) in the red zone. Lockett is eighth among WRs with a 28.2% target share and he has a 17.6% target share in the red zone.

Fade: Justin Jefferson (DK: $7,700, FD: $7,500)

The Chargers are facing the second-fewest pass attempts per game (29.6) because their rush defense is so vulnerable. Their secondary is excellent as well, with safety Derwin James helping hold the opposition to just 197 passing YPG. They’ve only allowed four passing TDs over four home games this season and have given up the second-fewest pass plays (19) of 20-plus yards on the year.

Tight End

Best Play: Kyle Pitts (DK: $5,800, FD: $6,900)

With Calvin Ridley (personal) out, Pitts clearly has the most upside of any TE on a tough slate for the position. The rookie is running 31.3 routes per game and leads all TEs in Air Yards Share (30.2%) with the second-most completed Air Yards (631) on the season. Dallas is giving up 58.3 receiving YPG and 11.5 FanDuel PPG to his position. Pitts has been better on the road with 333 receiving yards at a clip of 19.6 yards per catch in four outings away from Atlanta.

Value Play: Pat Freiermuth (DK: $3,900, FD: $5,100)

Another rookie TE looking to dispel the reputation that first-year players can’t produce at this position, Freiermuth has 16 catches for 145 yards and three TDs over his last three games. Ben Roethlisberger is really starting to look for him in scoring situations with Penn State product drawing two red-zone targets in each of the last two games. He’s sporting a 62.5% contested catch rate on eight targets and should be able to win his matchups against a Detroit team that ranks 29th in DVOA pass defense.

GPP Play: Tyler Conklin (DK: $3,400, FD: $5,300)

The Chargers are very tough on opposing WRs but are giving up the third-most DraftKings PPG (17.1) to opposing TEs this season. Conklin has grabbed a stranglehold on opportunities with Irv Smith Jr. out all season and he’s played on 84.2% of offensive snaps over his last three games. Kirk Cousins has been sacked at the lowest rate (3.18%) of any QB, so he might not need his TE to hang in for extra protection, but rather leak out off play-action fakes to burn the Chargers’ poor run defense.

Fade: Dallas Goedert (DK: $4,700, FD: $5,900)

Denver’s pass defense is elite and is one of only three units to not allow a single TD to a tight end this season. The Broncos are giving up the second-fewest TDs per game (2.0) overall and holding opposing QBs to a league-best 57% completion rate. You can safely fade Goedert and the rest of Philadelphia’s pass catchers along with Jalen Hurts in this tough road test.


NFL Week 10 Odds

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Nate Weitzer

Nate Weitzer is a successful DFS player at DraftKings and FanDuel with numerous tournament wins in NBA and NFL contests. He's been writing about DFS for several years, specializing in NBA picks and advice while continuing to build his bankroll across the daily fantasy industry. When he's not playing DFS, Weitzer is often covering high school sports in the greater Boston area for outlets such as The Boston Globe, or playing basketball himself. Follow Nate on Twitter @Nweitzer7.

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