NASCAR DFS Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Picks for Gander Outdoors 400
Each week, we’ll have an early week cheat sheet for the DFS NASCAR contests at DraftKings. This week, we look at the Gander Outdoors 400 at Dover.
TOP 5 FAVORITES TO WIN
1. Kyle Busch – Similar to Harvick, Kyle Busch has not been lights out of late. He scored the second-most fantasy points on his way to a win at Richmond, but the other five of his last six races have not been impressive. His best performance was 42 fantasy points, and that does not cut it at his elevated price tag. That said, Busch has a unique history at Dover. In the spring race, bad luck finds him. In the fall race, he’s the driver to beat. He won last fall and finished second in the 2016 and 2015 fall races.
2. Martin Truex, Jr. – Dover is one of Truex’s many hometracks. He’s earned them by racing well at each venue. Truex won at Dover in 2016, and he should have won both Dover races in 2017. The NASCAR media will say he’s never won at a short track because Dover is one mile long. This track races like a short track, so it’s a short track. Truex did not do much at Dover in the spring, but that was back when Harvick was ruling the circuit.
3. Kevin Harvick – In the spring race, Harvick scored 153.75 fantasy points at Dover. That was then; this is now. First of all, rarely does a driver sweep both races at the same track in a season. It is even rarer that a driver scores over 100 fantasy points in both races. The first Dover race was ages ago, and Harvick is no longer bullying the field on a weekly basis. Harvick has scored the most fantasy points just once in the last 13 races. He’s a favorite, but not a sure thing.
4. Kyle Larson – Dover is a big Bristol, and everyone knows that Larson loves Bristol. In the spring race, he started on the pole but faded. Despite his great qualifying effort, it was clear in practice that Larson did not have a winning race setup. His poor race performance is a concern, but that was early in the season. The #42 team has improved since that race. Last year at Dover, Larson scored the most hog points in both races.
5. Brad Keselowski – Here’s a surprise: Keselowski played the strategy game in the first Dover race. He didn’t win, but the gamble paid off. Keselowski had the second-best running position and scored the second-most hog points. The #2 Penske car has been speedy at the high-banked short tracks this season. Last week, Keselowski drove through the field to the front twice. The car, the driver, and the crew are firing on all cylinders.
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LONG SHOTS TO SCORE BIG
1. Daniel Suarez – He finished third in the first Dover race, but he got busted cheating. It still shows up as a third-place finish in the stat sheets. Might as well cheat again.
2. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. – There’s always the high probability that Stenhouse wrecks, but this is a good track type for him. His average running position was 11th in the spring Dover race.
3. Jimmie Johnson – If you’re not in the playoffs, then points do not matter. It’s all about wins, and where better to earn a win than Dover? Johnson has won at this short track 11 times.
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RECENT SUCCESS
Clint Bowyer – He finished third at the Roval. That was his third top 10 in his last four races.
Chase Elliott – In his last 10 races, Elliott has eight top 10 finishes. If he continues to earn top 10s each week, then he’ll make it to the championship.
Kurt Busch – After two rough weeks to begin the playoffs, Busch finished fifth at the Roval. He also boasts eight top 10 finishes in his last 10 races.
TRACK HISTORY
Kevin Harvick (Spring 2018)
Kyle Busch (Fall 2017)
Jimmie Johnson (Spring 2017)
Martin Truex, Jr. (Fall 2016)
Matt Kenseth (Spring 2016)
PICK TO WIN
Kyle Larson – This is pretty foolish because Larson never seals the deal. Something always goes wrong, but last week was a turning point. He went from race winner, to out of the playoffs, to miraculously earning the last playoff spot. His luck has finally changed.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.
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