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NASCAR DFS

NASCAR DFS Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Picks for South Point 400

Each week, we’ll have an early week cheat sheet for the NASCAR DFS contests at DraftKings. This week, we look at the South Point 400 at Las Vegas.

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TOP 5 FAVORITES TO WIN

1. Kevin Harvick

In the first Las Vegas race, he scored 85.5 hog points. Kyle Busch scored the second most hog points, but that was a paltry 13.5 points. There is just one small problem. Harvick cheated in the first Las Vegas race. His rear windshield collapsed inward at high speeds creating an aerodynamic advantage. He did not need to cheat to win the spring Las Vegas race, but cheating may have helped him score 132 points. Then again, he scored over 130 points at Las Vegas in the 2015 race.

2. Kyle Busch

At the start of the season, no one could compete with Harvick. Kyle Busch only led 10 laps in the first Las Vegas race, but no one had a chance at passing Harvick. That’s especially true if you believe Harvick’s rear window modification created a major aerodynamic advantage. A lot has changed since the Las Vegas race. Kyle Busch has won six races and earned 17 top five finishes.

3. Martin Truex, Jr.

Furniture Row Racing has 10 races left. It was hard enough for the #78 team to compete with Harvick and Kyle Busch before their impending doom was announced. However, even with the uncertainty in the garage, Truex is still in a better position than the rest of the field. Only three drivers have legitimately won at an intermediate track this season (Bowyer and Keselowski got lucky). Truex is one of those three drivers. He led 150 laps at Las Vegas in the 2017 race.

4. Kyle Larson

Las Vegas is a progressively banked track. There is a fast groove near the wall. Typically, Larson has big days at these tracks. That’s been the case this season at the intermediate tracks with a fast groove near the wall (Darlington, Chicago, and Kansas). Larson did not have a big day at Las Vegas in the spring. He did not have a big day last year at Las Vegas. Why not? He does not run the high groove at Las Vegas in the Cup car. He does in the Xfinity car, but not in the Cup car. Dear Kyle Larson, run the high groove near the wall.

5. Ryan Blaney

He finished fifth in the spring Las Vegas race, but his average running position was third. In 2017, he finished seventh. In 2016, he finished sixth. The fifth-best car changes every week, but there is always a reason to explain the new face. Las Vegas has progressive banking, so does Kansas. Blaney scored the second-most fantasy points in both Kansas races last year. In the spring 2018 Kansas race, Blaney scored 33.5 hog points.

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LONG SHOTS TO SCORE BIG

1. Erik Jones – He finished eighth in the first Las Vegas race. Jones also has the eighth-most top 10 finishes this season. A top 10 finish at Las Vegas is not a stretch.

2. Ryan Newman – RCR fielded strong cars in the first Las Vegas race. Both Newman and Austin Dillon earned top 15 finishes. The #31 and #3 car have improved over the last month.

3. Chris Buescher – In the spring race, Buescher had a fast race car. He was 13th in the final practice and was able to drive from 28th to 15th in the race.

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RECENT SUCCESS

Brad Keselowski – He’s won two races in a row, but Indy might as well have been an exhibition win. It’s a terrible race track for stock cars made even worse by having no practice.

Kevin Harvick – Fourth place two weeks in a row doesn’t feel like success for Harvick. However, he scored the second-most hog points at Indianapolis.

Kurt Busch – The top 10 streak extended to eight, and he’s tied for the third-best average finish this season.

TRACK HISTORY

Kevin Harvick (Spring 2018)
Martin Truex, Jr. (2017)
Brad Keselowski (2016)
Kevin Harvick (2015)
Brad Keselowski (2014)

PICK TO WIN

Kevin Harvick – It’s playoff time, and Harvick’s not messing around. Harvick will be the fastest in practice. He will win the pole, and he will dominate the race.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.